Dry for the OBX but windy probably with clouds
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Tropical TS Danny
- Thread starter Snowfan
- Start date
Need a tropical storm warning wow wake up people this is crazy get the people out of the water now!
I have friends and family in Myrtle going in the ocean get them out now
Just upgraded to a high chance Jesus Christ worse case scenario why not issue a tropical storm watch yesterday when it was peaking during dmin is a tale tale sign of tropical cyclone genesis plus warm Gulf Stream
Lol
Shaggy
Member
Beautiful naked swirl
Yeah if he wants to grow up to be Danny needs to get dressed real quick
With recon going they will name it to pad their numbers. It for sure will be post season tropical depression for the past two days to increase the ace for the season too.
NoSnowATL
Member
Hell I agree with this. Got to match the quota.
TD 4 is here plz rename the thread
Brent
Member
Forecasting Danny 
I’m a bit speechless this is forecasted to become a TS and place Charlotte metro in the north east quad. Yet the tv met there said no impact. Not even the small chance of a rain shower with a weak spin up tornado? Spin ups happen from tropical storms it doesn’t take much.
I have to roll my trash to the street tonight I hope it'll be ok
Very Authur 1996 like though just pushed a little more inland
Jessy89
Member
Wonder what the inland Tornado threat will be. From about Columbia GSP Ne Ga northeast of that center during heating of the day. Really wouldn’t be shocked to see Tornado watches tomorrow even as far north as upstate sc ne Georgia
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B
Brick Tamland
Guest
That's what I was wondering about, too.
lj0109
Member
Mesoscale Discussion 1122
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0121 PM CDT Mon Jun 28 2021
Areas affected...Coastal South Carolina
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...A brief tornado or two will be possible this afternoon
across the South Carolina coastal region as Tropical Depression Four
moves onshore. A watch is not likely due to low confidence in a more
robust tornado threat.
DISCUSSION...A few weak thunderstorms associated with the outer
bands of Tropical Depression Four have been moving across coastal
areas of SC over the past hour with only transient signs of
intensification. This is likely due to weak low and mid-level lapse
rates as sampled by the 12Z CHS sounding. However, temperatures are
warming into the low to mid 80s where cloud cover is minimal, which
may locally augment instability through the afternoon and lead to
some storm intensification. GOES visible and IR imagery show a
couple of additional convective towers developing inland as well as
offshore, suggesting that lift and instability remain adequate for
new development at least for the near term. Recent hi-res guidance
supports this idea, suggesting that another round of storms is
possible along the coast by mid afternoon, though confidence in this
scenario is low. The KCLX VWP sampled veering winds in the lowest
1-2 km, which is supporting around 100 m2/s2 ESRH along the coast.
The combination of sufficient instability and low-level shear will
support a low-end tornado threat through the afternoon. This threat
will likely be conditional on sustained mature convection, but the
transient nature of storms thus far and limited potential for
widespread convection point to low confidence in a robust tornado
threat. Trends will be monitored, but a watch is unlikely.
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0121 PM CDT Mon Jun 28 2021
Areas affected...Coastal South Carolina
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...A brief tornado or two will be possible this afternoon
across the South Carolina coastal region as Tropical Depression Four
moves onshore. A watch is not likely due to low confidence in a more
robust tornado threat.
DISCUSSION...A few weak thunderstorms associated with the outer
bands of Tropical Depression Four have been moving across coastal
areas of SC over the past hour with only transient signs of
intensification. This is likely due to weak low and mid-level lapse
rates as sampled by the 12Z CHS sounding. However, temperatures are
warming into the low to mid 80s where cloud cover is minimal, which
may locally augment instability through the afternoon and lead to
some storm intensification. GOES visible and IR imagery show a
couple of additional convective towers developing inland as well as
offshore, suggesting that lift and instability remain adequate for
new development at least for the near term. Recent hi-res guidance
supports this idea, suggesting that another round of storms is
possible along the coast by mid afternoon, though confidence in this
scenario is low. The KCLX VWP sampled veering winds in the lowest
1-2 km, which is supporting around 100 m2/s2 ESRH along the coast.
The combination of sufficient instability and low-level shear will
support a low-end tornado threat through the afternoon. This threat
will likely be conditional on sustained mature convection, but the
transient nature of storms thus far and limited potential for
widespread convection point to low confidence in a robust tornado
threat. Trends will be monitored, but a watch is unlikely.
Stormsfury
Member
Most of the significant weather is being sheared to the west and southwest side of TD4. Not much significant weather on the northeast quad at this time.. southwestern side exploding convection and shows well on KCHS radar as of this post at 3pm..
Jessy89
Member
I bet it’s very windy in that thunderstorm blowup.
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