This is what was gawx was talking about earlier.
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Tropical TS Danny
- Thread starter Snowfan
- Start date
A loop that is too large to post here but that shows the strongest convection yet near the assumed LLC was just posted elsewhere with this comment by the guy who sometimes gets a bit too excited. So fwiw:
“Looks like the ULL low is moving just a little faster than the system. Opening up a pretty good outflow channel to the NW.”
“Looks like the ULL low is moving just a little faster than the system. Opening up a pretty good outflow channel to the NW.”
2 PM TWO ups TC genesis chances from 20% to 50%:
1. Satellite imagery and nearby buoy and ship observations indicate
that a small low pressure system has formed about 500 miles
east-southeast of the Georgia-South Carolina border. Surface
pressures have begun to fall across the area, and showers and
thunderstorms have recently become better organized. Some additional
development of this system will be possible later today, and
especially on Monday when the system will move across the warmer
waters of the Gulf Stream, and a tropical depression could form
before the system makes landfall along the southern U.S. coast. The
low is expected to move westward today, and then west-northwestward
at about 15 mph on Monday, reaching the coast of the southeastern
United States by late Monday. An Air Force Reserve Unit
reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system
Monday afternoon, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
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My thought is that if they’re going to investigate it that it be today as it will be nearly onshore by tomorrow afternoon.
1. Satellite imagery and nearby buoy and ship observations indicate
that a small low pressure system has formed about 500 miles
east-southeast of the Georgia-South Carolina border. Surface
pressures have begun to fall across the area, and showers and
thunderstorms have recently become better organized. Some additional
development of this system will be possible later today, and
especially on Monday when the system will move across the warmer
waters of the Gulf Stream, and a tropical depression could form
before the system makes landfall along the southern U.S. coast. The
low is expected to move westward today, and then west-northwestward
at about 15 mph on Monday, reaching the coast of the southeastern
United States by late Monday. An Air Force Reserve Unit
reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system
Monday afternoon, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
————————
My thought is that if they’re going to investigate it that it be today as it will be nearly onshore by tomorrow afternoon.
Henry2326
Member
Wouldn’t be surprised if they do PTC advisories sometime in the next 24-30 hours
PTC in 24-30 hours would be too late as it would already be nearly onshore/onshore.
Jessy89
Member
I know this thing will be weak. But it’s going to take people by surprise because there won’t be much warning. It’s Sunday and likely to make landfall tomorrow. Most people on the coast are unaware Of the potential tropical cyclone.
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Either a strong and quite wet TW (sharp axis) or a TD are most likely scenarios at landfall. Regardless, a wet (lots of heavy tropical showers causing localized flooding), breezy day tomorrow coastal SC/GA (windiest along SC coast).
Jessy89
Member
I’ll say this and I could be totally wrong. But how much time it spends over the Gulf Stream matters. I wouldn’t at all be surprised to see a weak tropical storm as this goes over the Gulf Stream which is usually pretty warm water.
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It is booking pretty nicely and thus probably won't be over the Gulf Stream for more than a couple of hours along with moderate shear (average favorability).
I say the odds are higher to get a name vs not. It’s strengthened during dmin which is not normal. Usually they strengthen during dmax. I bet they (NHC) would love to name it to meet their forecast numbers and already have a plane 
scheduled for tomorrow. My guess is a 40-45 Tropical Storm. Small chance it rapidly intensifies under 5% given Gulf Stream, climate change and favorable angle coming into the US could give it a few extra hours over water.
scheduled for tomorrow. My guess is a 40-45 Tropical Storm. Small chance it rapidly intensifies under 5% given Gulf Stream, climate change and favorable angle coming into the US could give it a few extra hours over water.
Jessy89
Member
I say the odds are higher to get a name vs not. It’s strengthened during dmin which is not normal. Usually they strengthen during dmax. I bet they (NHC) would love to name it to meet their forecast numbers and already have a planescheduled for tomorrow. My guess is a 40-45 Tropical Storm. Small chance it rapidly intensifies under 5% given Gulf Stream, climate change and favorable angle coming into the US could give it a few extra hours over water.
scheduled for tomorrow. My guess is a 40-45 Tropical Storm. Small chance it rapidly intensifies under 5% given Gulf Stream, climate change and favorable angle coming into the US could give it a few extra hours over water.
Yeah I sorta see it being 40-45mph at landfall
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Henry2326
Member
Imagine waking up to a 75 cat 1 and landfall as a cat 5 that night in South Carolina what would happen would you even evacuate or just hunker down? Let’s debate because I wouldn’t order mass evacuation it just wouldn’t work with no notice
Henry2326
Member
Having lived in Charleston for 10 years, an evacuation at this point is unlikely for a cat 1. Most will stay anyway for a cat 1. They have to think it will be a cat 3 or higher before they will leave.
Lot of heavy rain incoming for Georgia beaches. Elsewhere hot and sunny app mtns due to sinking air on west side of a cyclone.
My guess is TS 40-45
Looks like a South Carolina landfall well south of Myrtle with all the action on the southern sc coastline and Georgia