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Tropical TS Alex

metwannabe

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91L, let'er rip tater chip

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Jun 1 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Near the Yucatan Peninsula and Southeastern Gulf of Mexico:
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located
over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and Yucatan Peninsula is
associated with a broad area of low pressure. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for gradual development, and this
system is likely to become a tropical depression while it moves
northeastward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and southeastern
Gulf of Mexico during the next couple of days. Regardless of
development, locally heavy rainfall is likely across portions of
southeastern Mexico, the Yucatan Peninsula, and Belize during the
next day or so, spreading across western Cuba, South Florida, and
the Florida Keys on Friday and Saturday. Interests in the Yucatan
Peninsula, western Cuba, the Florida Keys, and the Florida Peninsula
should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
 

Tornadocane

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WPC is forecasting 7-10" of rain for my location, but I think it'll be more like 8-14" areawide if the Globals are correct about the overall track and configuration of the system. Some of the high resolution models are putting down biblical rainfall amounts. A 16-18" lollipop is not out of the question. Moisture starts pinwheel into the area tomorrow, and there is likely to be very heavy rain for 2 days, as well as strong thunder storms ahead and behind the storm.

p168i.gif
 

Tornadocane

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NWS Miami seems to support my belief that that heavy rain will be a long duration event. While the center of the low will be nearest to South Florida on Saturday and Sunday, this will likely be an east-heavy system with most precipitation on the eastern half of the low. This means the deep layer moisture and heavy rains can start across the area as early as Thursday night based on current model trends.

This system should clear the region by late Sunday when high pressure begins to build into the area.
 

Brent

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I smell a PTC tomorrow at least

A broad area of low pressure located near the east coast of the
Yucatan Peninsula continues to produce a large area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and
Yucatan Peninsula. Despite strong upper-level winds, this system is
likely to become a tropical depression or tropical storm while it
moves slowly northeastward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and
southeastern Gulf of Mexico during the next day or two. Interests
in western Cuba, the Florida Keys, and the Florida Peninsula should
monitor the progress of this system, and tropical storm watches or
warnings could be required for some of these areas later today.
 

smast16

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Of course! The only trip I have planned all year to Ft Lauderdale and we may have tropical conditions the entire time.

:rolleyes:
And you'd think 1st week of June you'd be golden too as the season's not really active yet....
 

Tornadocane

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Of course! The only trip I have planned all year to Ft Lauderdale and we may have tropical conditions the entire time.

:rolleyes:

Come to my pool party. I have yellow duck floaties and Kool-Aid. :cool:

Seriously, just go to the Hard Rock Hotel. They're going to have power, and that's where everyone is going.
 
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Brent

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Here we go

Special Message from NHC Issued 2 Jun 2022 20:18 UTC
NHC will initiate advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone One, located near the Yucatan Peninsula, at 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC).
 

Tornadocane

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