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Tropical Tropical Storm Milton

So, of most watched globals, all but GFS are S of Tampa.


0Z Summary from N to S:

GFS: just N of Tampa

Euro: Sarasota

Icon: Port Charlotte

CMC: Ft. Myers

UKMET: Naples
 
The thing that makes me apprehensive to bite on the southerly global NWP solutions is the fact that the vortex depth & intensity is probably too shallow compared to reality (in part because this is a small TC & they can't resolve Milton's core like the hurricane models can). This makes the storm steer further to the east, whereas a stronger/deeper storm as shown by the higher-res models lifts to the north.

I'm leaning a little more towards the more northerly solutions near or even a tad north of Tampa here.
 
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