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Tropical Tropical Storm Gordon

Welcome to the site and we're glad you like it better over here.
Grady Cook said:
Thanks man. Yeah I like it here better than over there. Over there they jump all over you if you say something they don’t agree with
Click to expand...

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
 
210
WTNT32 KNHC 041150
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gordon Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072018
700 AM CDT Tue Sep 04 2018

...GORDON MOVING STEADILY TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...
...EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.1N 86.2W
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM ESE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...25 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Shell Beach to Dauphin Island

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* West of Shell Beach to the Mouth of the Mississippi River
* East of Dauphin Island to Navarre

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Pearl River to the Alabama-Florida Border

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West of the Mouth of the Pearl River to east of Morgan City,
Louisiana, including Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas
* Alabama-Florida Border to Okaloosa-Walton County Line

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning areas.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gordon was
located near latitude 28.1 North, longitude 86.2 West. Gordon is
moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (25 km/h). A
west-northwestward to northwestward motion with some decrease in
forward speed is expected over the next few days. On the forecast
track, the center of Gordon will move across the eastern Gulf of
Mexico today, and will approach the north-central Gulf Coast within
the warning area late this afternoon or evening, and move inland
over the lower Mississippi Valley tonight or early Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is expected today, and Gordon is forecast
to be a hurricane when it makes landfall along the north-central
Gulf Coast. Rapid weakening is expected after Gordon moves inland.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center. NOAA Buoy 42039, located north of Gordon's center,
recently reported a sustained wind of 43 mph (69 km/h) and a gust
to 49 mph (80 km/h).

The minimum central pressure recently reported by NOAA and Air
Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft was 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Shell Beach to Dauphin Island, Alabama...3 to 5 ft.
Navarre Florida to Dauphin Island, including Mobile Bay...2 to 4 ft.
Shell Beach to the Mouth of Mississippi River...2 to 4 ft.
Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Louisiana-Texas border...1 to
2 ft.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the
relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary
greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area,
please see products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office.

RAINFALL: Gordon is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
4 to 8 inches over the western Florida Panhandle, southwest Alabama,
southern and central Mississippi, southeastern and northeastern
Louisiana, and southern Arkansas, with isolated maximum amounts of
12 inches through late Thursday. This rainfall will cause flash
flooding across portions of these areas.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin this
afternoon within portions of the warning area, with hurricane
conditions expected by this evening in the hurricane warning
area.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible this afternoon through
tonight near the coasts of Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida
Panhandle.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart
Click to expand...
 
Grady Cook said:
Thanks man. Yeah I like it here better than over there. Over there they jump all over you if you say something they don’t agree with
Click to expand...
Yeah, if you read my post on there they pretty much do the same to me. I can't say anything without someone making a rude comment back. Oh well, this is my home here.
 
I see the HRRR suggest Gordo wants to look impressive just before LF
3f8cb4b524d4d7060fc67b5025a13cb3.jpg


Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
 
936
WTNT32 KNHC 041438
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gordon Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072018
1000 AM CDT Tue Sep 04 2018

...OUTER RAINBANDS PRODUCING SQUALLY WEATHER ALONG THE COAST OF THE
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...
...GORDON EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL TONIGHT AS A HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.5N 86.8W
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM ESE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued west of Grand
Isle, Louisiana.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Shell Beach to Dauphin Island

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* West of Shell Beach to the Mouth of the Mississippi River
* East of Dauphin Island to Navarre

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Pearl River to the Alabama-Florida Border

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West of the Mouth of the Pearl River to Grand Isle, including Lake
Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas
* Alabama-Florida Border to Okaloosa-Walton County Line

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning areas.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gordon was
located near latitude 28.5 North, longitude 86.8 West. Gordon is
moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue until landfall occurs tonight along
the north-central Gulf coast. A northwestward motion with some
decrease in forward speed is expected after landfall, with a gradual
turn toward the north-northwest and north forecast to occur on
Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Gordon will move across
the northern Gulf of Mexico today, and will approach the north-
central Gulf Coast within the hurricane warning area late this
afternoon or evening, and move inland over the lower Mississippi
Valley tonight and early Wednesday.

Reports from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Unit reconnaissance
aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph
(100 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is expected today,
and Gordon is forecast to be a hurricane when it makes landfall
along the north-central Gulf Coast. Rapid weakening is forecast
after Gordon moves inland.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center. NOAA Buoy 42039, located north of Gordon's center,
recently reported a sustained wind of 43 mph (69 km/h) and a gust
to 49 mph (80 km/h).

The minimum central pressure recently reported by a NOAA
reconnaissance aircraft was 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Shell Beach to Dauphin Island...3 to 5 ft.
Navarre Florida to Dauphin Island, including Mobile Bay...2 to 4 ft.
Shell Beach to the Mouth of Mississippi River...2 to 4 ft.
Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Louisiana-Texas border...1 to
2 ft.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the
relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary
greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area,
please see products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office.

RAINFALL: Gordon is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
4 to 8 inches over the western Florida Panhandle, southwest Alabama,
southern and central Mississippi, southeastern and northeastern
Louisiana, and southern Arkansas, with isolated maximum amounts of
12 inches through late Thursday. This rainfall will cause flash
flooding across portions of these areas.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin this
afternoon within portions of the warning area, with hurricane
conditions expected by this evening in the hurricane warning
area.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible this afternoon through
tonight near the coasts of Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida
Panhandle.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart
Click to expand...
696
WTNT42 KNHC 040847
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Gordon Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072018
400 AM CDT Tue Sep 04 2018

Gordon has changed little in organization on geostationary
satellite images or on the WSR-88D radar presentation over the past
several hours. The storm has a small CDO with convective banding
features primarily over the eastern semicircle of the circulation.
Overall the cloud pattern is indicative of moderate westerly shear
over the system, likely associated with an upper-level trough near
the central Gulf of Mexico. An Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane
Hunter aircraft investigated Gordon a few hours ago and reported
maximum SFMR-measured surface winds of 54 kt. On this basis the
intensity had been adjusted to 55 kt, which is somewhat above the
latest Dvorak estimates. It is assumed that the shear will not be
strong enough to inhibit at least some strengthening before
landfall, so the tropical cyclone is still forecast to become a
hurricane later today. The official forecast, prior to landfall, is
close to the latest LGEM intensity guidance, and near the upper end
of the guidance suite. Gordon should weaken rapidly after landfall
in the lower Mississippi Valley region.

The motion continues west-northwestward, or 300/15 kt. There is
little or no change to the NHC track prediction or forecast
reasoning from the previous advisory. Gordon is expected to move
along the southwestern periphery of a mid-level high pressure area
and make landfall along the north-central Gulf of Mexico coast
within 24 hours. After landfall, the cyclone is forecast to move
northwestward, along the western side of the high, at a reduced
forward speed. Late in the forecast period Gordon, or its
post-tropical remnant, should turn northward to north-northeastward
as it approaches the mid-latitude westerlies. The official track
forecast is near the model consensus and very close to the previous
NHC track.

Key Messages:

1. Gordon is expected to bring life-threatening storm surge and
hurricane conditions to portions of the central Gulf Coast where a
Storm Surge Warning and Hurricane Warning are in effect. Residents
in these areas should listen to advice from their local officials.
All preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion, as tropical storm conditions are expected to arrive in
the warning areas this afternoon.

2. Heavy rainfall from Gordon will affect the western Florida
Panhandle, southern Alabama, southern Mississippi and Louisiana,
where totals could reach as high as 12 inches. This rainfall could
cause flash flooding.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0900Z 27.7N 85.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 04/1800Z 29.0N 87.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 05/0600Z 30.7N 89.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
36H 05/1800Z 32.2N 91.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
48H 06/0600Z 33.4N 92.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
72H 07/0600Z 34.9N 94.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 08/0600Z 37.0N 94.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 09/0600Z 40.0N 92.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Pasch
Click to expand...
 
I'm not certain but the small core looks like it's getting pulled back under the main convection. May see a center shift/reform to the N or NE if the convection continues in that area.
 
The far outer bands from Gordon have given me a nice just over an inch or so of rainfall, mainly yesterday. Despite the extremely wet last half of July here, the mainly dry August here makes this inch more than welcome.
I assume @pcbjr got a good bit more.
 
GaWx said:
The far outer bands from Gordon have given me a nice just over an inch or so of rainfall, mainly yesterday. Despite the extremely wet last half of July here, the mainly dry August here makes this inch more than welcome.
I assume @pcbjr got a good bit more.
Click to expand...
.13 yesterday

45.30 YTD
 
pcbjr said:
.13 yesterday

45.30 YTD
Click to expand...

I was wrong then. I recall you posting a radar image showing Gordon's banding thunderstorms in your vicinity and thought you'd get more than an inch. Maybe the heaviest stayed just south of you? I wonder if the prairie (or should I call it "the lake") got a good bit more. Hopefully not!
 
GaWx said:
I was wrong then. I recall you posting a radar image showing Gordon's banding thunderstorms in your vicinity and thought you'd get more than an inch. Maybe the heaviest stayed just south of you? I wonder if the prairie (or should I call it "the lake") got a good bit more. Hopefully not!
Click to expand...
That .13 was official; we got a ton more at home, but I did not check the gauge this AM; that radar was directly overhead; just have no clue as to an amount IMBY, but is certainly had to exceed .75... ;)
Didn't mean to come off snarky ... just a tad bit touchy for some very odd reason today ... Sorry ... :cool:
 
Erm is the NHC sure this gonna make landfall in Mississippi? Because it looks like it’s headed straight for the Alabama Coast.
 
RollTide18 said:
Erm is the NHC sure this gonna make landfall in Mississippi? Because it looks like it’s headed straight for the Alabama Coast.
Click to expand...

I agree! If the radar is showing the edge of the eye as I think i'm seeing, It looks like it will have a hard time making it farther west than Mobile bay.
 
569
WTNT32 KNHC 041746
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gordon Intermediate Advisory Number 9A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072018
100 PM CDT Tue Sep 04 2018

...OUTER RAINBANDS PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS ALONG THE
COAST OF THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.9N 87.3W
ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM SSE OF MOBILE ALABAMA
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM SE OF BILOXI MISSISSIPPI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Shell Beach to Dauphin Island

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* West of Shell Beach to the Mouth of the Mississippi River
* East of Dauphin Island to Navarre

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Pearl River to the Alabama-Florida Border

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West of the Mouth of the Pearl River to Grand Isle, including Lake
Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas
* Alabama-Florida Border to Okaloosa-Walton County Line

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning areas.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gordon was
located near latitude 28.9 North, longitude 87.3 West. Gordon is
moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue until landfall occurs tonight along
the north-central Gulf coast. A northwestward motion with some
decrease in forward speed is expected after landfall, with a gradual
turn toward the north-northwest and north forecast to occur on
Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Gordon will move across
the northern Gulf of Mexico today, and will approach the north-
central Gulf Coast within the hurricane warning area late this
afternoon or evening, and move inland over the lower Mississippi
Valley tonight and early Wednesday.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Unit reconnaissance aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some strengthening is expected later today, and
Gordon is forecast to be a hurricane when it makes landfall along
the north-central Gulf Coast. Rapid weakening is forecast after
Gordon moves inland.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure is estimated to be 1001 mb (29.56
inches) based on recent reconnaissance aircraft data.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Shell Beach to Dauphin Island...3 to 5 ft.
Navarre Florida to Dauphin Island, including Mobile Bay...2 to 4 ft.
Shell Beach to the Mouth of Mississippi River...2 to 4 ft.
Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Louisiana-Texas border...1 to
2 ft.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the
relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary
greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area,
please see products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office.

RAINFALL: Gordon is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
4 to 8 inches over the western Florida Panhandle, southwest Alabama,
southern and central Mississippi, northeastern Louisiana, and
southern Arkansas, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches
through late Thursday. This rainfall will cause flash flooding
across portions of these areas.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin this
afternoon within portions of the warning area, with hurricane
conditions expected by this evening in the hurricane warning
area.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible this afternoon through
tonight near the coasts of Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida
Panhandle.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart
Click to expand...
 
GaWx said:
I was wrong then. I recall you posting a radar image showing Gordon's banding thunderstorms in your vicinity and thought you'd get more than an inch. Maybe the heaviest stayed just south of you? I wonder if the prairie (or should I call it "the lake") got a good bit more. Hopefully not!
Click to expand...
Reply #2
Larry,
Came home early to avoid school zone driving ... checked and it was .72; rained on and off all afternoon yesterday and last night, and some today so that probably includes some of this afternoon's as well; haven't had the wherewithal to go to PP lately, but drove (rode shotgun) across there 2 weeks ago, and if that is not a lake in the making, nothing is; apparently the sink is clogged and the groundwater so high it just will not drain ...
Best (and hopefully a bit more lighthearted this go-around),
Phil
 
775
WTNT32 KNHC 042041
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gordon Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072018
400 PM CDT Tue Sep 04 2018

...GORDON STRENGTHENS A LITTLE AS IT HEADS TOWARD THE NORTH-CENTRAL
GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.4N 87.8W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SE OF BILOXI MISSISSIPPI
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM S OF MOBILE ALABAMA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued west of the Mouth
of the Mississippi River, including Lake Maurepas.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Shell Beach to Dauphin Island

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* West of Shell Beach to the Mouth of the Mississippi River
* East of Dauphin Island to Navarre

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Pearl River to the Alabama-Florida Border

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West of the Mouth of the Pearl River to the Mouth of the
Mississippi River, including Lake Pontchartrain
* Alabama-Florida Border to Okaloosa-Walton County Line

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning areas.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gordon was
located by NOAA Doppler weather radars near latitude 29.4 North,
longitude 87.8 West. Gordon is moving toward the northwest near 15
mph (24 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue until
landfall occurs tonight along the north-central Gulf coast. A
northwestward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected
after landfall, with a gradual turn toward the north-northwest and
north forecast to occur on Friday. On the forecast track, the center
of Gordon will make landfall along the north-central Gulf Coast
within the hurricane warning area this evening or tonight, and then
move inland over the lower Mississippi Valley through Wednesday.

Data from NOAA Doppler weather radars indicate that maximum
sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with
higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is still possible, and
Gordon could become a hurricane before landfall occurs along the
north-central Gulf Coast this evening. Rapid weakening is forecast
after Gordon moves inland.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Mouth of the Pearl River to Dauphin Island...3 to 5 ft.
Navarre Florida to Dauphin Island, including Mobile Bay...2 to 4 ft.
Mouth of the Pearl River to the Mouth of Mississippi River...2 to 4
ft.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the
relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary
greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area,
please see products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office.

RAINFALL: Gordon is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
4 to 8 inches over the western Florida Panhandle, southwest Alabama,
southern and central Mississippi, northeastern Louisiana, and
southern Arkansas, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches
through late Thursday. This rainfall will cause flash flooding
across portions of these areas.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will spread onshore within portions
of the warning area during the next few hours, with hurricane
conditions expected by this evening in the hurricane warning area.

TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes are possible through tonight
near the coasts of Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart
Click to expand...
541
WTNT42 KNHC 041450
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Gordon Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072018
1000 AM CDT Tue Sep 04 2018

After an earlier disruption of the inner-core convection due to some
southerly wind shear, Gordon has since developed a band of deep
convection very near the well-defined center noted in both NOAA
GOES-16 high-resolution satellite imagery and coastal NOAA WSR-88D
Doppler radars. In addition, there has been a significant increase
in lightning activity during the past couple of hours in the inner
core, and Doppler radar velocities have increased to more than 45 kt
at 25,000 ft in the band of convection near the center. NOAA and Air
Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft further indicate that Gordon
has maintained a small radius of maximum winds (RMW) of 10-15 nmi,
and that SFMR surface winds of 53-55 kt exist in the northeastern
quadrant. These data support an intensity of 55 kt.

The initial motion estimate is now toward the northwest at a
slightly slower forward, or 305/13 kt. There is basically no change
to the previous NHC forecast track reasoning. Reconnaissance fixes
continue to fall along the previous forecast track, and the latest
model guidance remains tightly packed and on top of the previous
NHC forecast. As a result, there is high confidence that Gordon will
make landfall along the north-central Gulf of Mexico coast in about
18 hours. After landfall, steering currents are forecast to weaken,
resulting in Gordon slowing down considerably, which will enhance
the heavy rainfall potential. By Friday, an approaching cold front
and associated mid-/upper-level trough are expected to break down
the subtropical ridge, allowing Gordon to turn northward and
eventually turn northeastward on Saturday and merge with the cold
front. The new official track forecast is near the model consensus
and essentially on top of the previous NHC track.

The aforementioned inner-core changes that have been occurring could
be a harbinger that Gordon is finally starting to intensify. Intense
lightning activity inside the small RMW is an indication of strong
updrafts, which can enhance the strengthening process. Although the
GFS and ECMWF models continue to forecast northwesterly shear of
10-15 kt, the explicit upper-level wind fields in the GFS, ECMWF,
and UKMET models indicate that the 200-mb flow is forecast to become
southeasterly and diffluent across Gordon in the next 12 h or so,
which would act to enhance the development of inner-core convection.
As result, the official intensity forecast maintains continuity and
shows Gordon becoming a hurricane before landfall, which is above
the guidance through that time. Once Gordon moves inland, the small
circulation should spin down fairly quickly, and that portion of the
forecast closely follows the various consensus-model intensity
guidance. By 120 h, Gordon's circulation is expected to merge with a
cold front over the Mississippi Valley region.

Key Messages:

1. Gordon is expected to bring life-threatening storm surge and
hurricane conditions to portions of the central Gulf Coast where a
Storm Surge Warning and Hurricane Warning are in effect. Residents
in these areas should listen to advice from their local officials.

2. Heavy rainfall from Gordon will affect the western Florida
Panhandle, southwest Alabama, southern and central Mississippi,
much of eastern Louisiana, and southern Arkansas, where totals could
reach as high as 12 inches. This rainfall will cause flash flooding
in portions of these areas.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/1500Z 28.5N 86.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 05/0000Z 29.8N 88.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 05/1200Z 31.5N 90.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
36H 06/0000Z 32.8N 91.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
48H 06/1200Z 33.7N 92.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND
72H 07/1200Z 35.4N 94.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 08/1200Z 37.7N 93.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 09/1200Z 40.9N 90.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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