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Tropical Tropical Storm Gordon

Umm yeah...
Snowfan said:
Gordon is starting to develop a inner core.
Click to expand...
6c49fe8ae29300048b8bd6019670fa40.jpg


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I'm saying Cat 3 at peak and then weakening to a tropical storm at landfall.

I kid, but it fits climo for the Gulf.
 
Gordon's primitive eyewall is already about 80-90% complete, and he's taking full advantage of additional frictional convergence with the southwest Florida coastline to tighten up. Certainly reminds me a lot of Hurricane Humberto (2007), except Gordon will have lots of time over water. Seeing a lot of winds aloft on radar ~70-80 mph in the northern and NW sections of this primitive eye, this thing is going nuclear which was possible given its small size, warm water, and low shear out ahead of it. The global models are useless w/ a tiny storm like Gordon.
 
095
WTNT32 KNHC 031747
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gordon Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072018
200 PM EDT Mon Sep 03 2018

...GORDON STILL PRODUCING TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE UPPER KEYS...
...STORM SURGE WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.8N 81.9W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM WSW OF MARCO ISLAND FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Shell Beach to Mississippi-Alabama border

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* West of Shell Beach to the Mouth of the Mississippi River
* East of the Mississippi-Alabama border to Navarre

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Pearl River to the Alabama-Florida Border

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Golden Beach to Bonita Beach
* Craig Key to Ocean Reef, including Florida Bay
* Okaloosa-Walton County Line westward to east of Morgan City,
Louisiana, including Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning areas.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gordon was
located near latitude 25.8 North, longitude 81.9 West. Gordon is
moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h) and a west-
northwestward to northwestward motion is expected over the next
72 hours. On the forecast track, the center of Gordon will move
farther away from the southwestern coast of Florida this
afternoon and move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico tonight and
Tuesday. The center of Gordon will approach the coast within
the warning area along the central Gulf Coast by late Tuesday or
Tuesday night, and move inland over the lower Mississippi Valley on
Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with
higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next
36 hours, and Gordon is expected to be near hurricane strength when
it makes landfall along the central Gulf Coast.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Shell Beach to the Mississippi-Alabama border...3 to 5 ft.
Navarre Florida to the Mississippi-Alabama border...2 to 4 ft.
Shell Beach to the Mouth of Mississippi River...2 to 4 ft.
Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Louisiana-Texas border...1 to
2 ft.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the
relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary
greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area,
please see products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office.

RAINFALL: Gordon is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
2 to 4 inches over the central and northwestern Bahamas, the Florida
Keys, and South Florida through early Tuesday. Isolated maximum
amounts of 8 inches are possible over the southern Florida
peninsula.

Gordon is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 6
inches over southern Alabama, southern Mississippi and Louisiana,
with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches through early Thursday.

These rainfall amounts may cause flash flooding.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue through this
afternoon in the warning areas across South Florida and the Florida
Keys. Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the
central Gulf Coast warning area by late Tuesday, with hurricane
conditions possible late Tuesday or Tuesday night in the hurricane
watch area.

TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes are possible through tonight
across the southern and west-central Florida Peninsula.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart
Click to expand...
 
It’s moving pretty fast , (17mph) if it makes it to a 3 or so, as someone mentioned above, it may not have time to weaken that much!?
 
Tarheel1 said:
It’s moving pretty fast , (17mph) if it makes it to a 3 or so, as someone mentioned above, it may not have time to weaken that much!?
Click to expand...

Never bet against the gulf in any fashion, especially with a small storm. These things can strengthen and likewise weaken in the blink of an eye, pun intended.
 
2017 should have been a recent reminder that the tropics in the Atlantic/Gulf can escalate rapidly. Look at a lot of the insurmountable odds at times Irma, Harvey, Maria and Nate were able to overcome.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Gordon's primitive eyewall is already about 80-90% complete, and he's taking full advantage of additional frictional convergence with the southwest Florida coastline to tighten up. Certainly reminds me a lot of Hurricane Humberto (2007), except Gordon will have lots of time over water. Seeing a lot of winds aloft on radar ~70-80 mph in the northern and NW sections of this primitive eye, this thing is going nuclear which was possible given its small size, warm water, and low shear out ahead of it. The global models are useless w/ a tiny storm like Gordon.
Click to expand...
How strong do you think Gordon will get
 
New info on Gordan, should be 60 mph shortly
 
Gordon is still hugging the Florida coast and moving northwestward, wouldn't be shocked if the track shifted to the right yet again.
 
No change in strength, but expected to become a 75mph cat. 1 hurricane at landfall tomorrow.

INIT 03/2100Z 26.2N 82.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 04/0600Z 27.3N 84.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 04/1800Z 28.9N 87.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 05/0600Z 30.6N 89.3W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
48H 05/1800Z 32.1N 91.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
72H 06/1800Z 34.1N 93.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
96H 07/1800Z 35.5N 94.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 08/1800Z 38.2N 94.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT2+shtml/032038.shtml?
 
NHC Director Ken Graham will discuss that latest advisory regarding Tropical Storm Gordon in a Facebook Live broadcast at 5:15 p.m. EDT.
 
Weatherlover92 said:
No change in strength, but expected to become a 75mph cat. 1 hurricane at landfall tomorrow.

INIT 03/2100Z 26.2N 82.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 04/0600Z 27.3N 84.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 04/1800Z 28.9N 87.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 05/0600Z 30.6N 89.3W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
48H 05/1800Z 32.1N 91.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
72H 06/1800Z 34.1N 93.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
96H 07/1800Z 35.5N 94.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 08/1800Z 38.2N 94.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT2+shtml/032038.shtml?
Click to expand...
Depends on how fast it strengthens, I could see high cat 1 or low end 2
 
867
WTNT32 KNHC 040246
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gordon Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072018
1100 PM EDT Mon Sep 03 2018

...GORDON MOVING QUICKLY ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.9N 84.3W
ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM ESE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Shell Beach to Dauphin Island

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* West of Shell Beach to the Mouth of the Mississippi River
* East of Dauphin Island to Navarre

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Pearl River to the Alabama-Florida Border

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West of the Mouth of the Pearl River to east of Morgan City,
Louisiana, including Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas
* Alabama-Florida Border to Okaloosa-Walton County Line

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning areas.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gordon was
located near latitude 26.9 North, longitude 84.3 West. Gordon is
moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h). A
west-northwestward to northwestward motion with some decrease in
forward speed is expected over the next few days. On the forecast
track, the center of Gordon will move across the eastern Gulf of
Mexico tonight and Tuesday, and will approach the north-central Gulf
Coast within the warning area late Tuesday afternoon or evening, and
move inland over the lower Mississippi Valley on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is expected during the next 24 hours, and
Gordon is forecast to be a hurricane when it makes landfall along
the north-central Gulf Coast. Rapid weakening is expected after
Gordon moves inland.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Shell Beach to Dauphin Island, Alabama...3 to 5 ft.
Navarre Florida to Dauphin Island, including Mobile Bay...2 to 4 ft.
Shell Beach to the Mouth of Mississippi River...2 to 4 ft.
Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Louisiana-Texas border...1 to
2 ft.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the
relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary
greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area,
please see products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office.

RAINFALL: Gordon is expected to produce additional rain
accumulations around 1 inch, with isolated heavier amounts
through Tuesday over the northwestern Bahamas and south
Florida. Isolated maximum storm-total amounts of 7 inches are
possible.

Gordon is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 8
inches over southwest Alabama, southern and central Mississippi,
southeastern and northeastern Louisiana, and southeast Arkansas,
with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches through late Thursday.

This rainfall may cause flash flooding.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin Tuesday
afternoon within portions of the warning area, with hurricane
conditions expected by Tuesday evening in the hurricane warning
area.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown
Click to expand...
713
WTNT42 KNHC 040247
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Gordon Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072018
1100 PM EDT Mon Sep 03 2018

WSR-88D radar data from Tampa shows that the small inner core of
Gordon has lost some organization during the past few hours, and
GOES-16 satellite imagery and recent aircraft fixes indicate that
the low-level center is located near the southwestern edge of the
main convective mass. This suggests that there may be some light to
moderate westerly shear affecting the cyclone. The Air Force
Reserve reconnaissance aircraft recently measured peak 850-mb
flight-level winds of 57 kt, and SFMR winds of 50-55 kt. A blend
of these data yields an initial wind speed estimate of 50 kt.

A UW/CIMSS shear analysis and the SHIPS model indicates that there
is about 10-15 kt of westerly shear over the system. The SHIPS
guidance shows a slight relaxation of the shear during the next
12-18 hours while the system moves over the warm waters of the Gulf
of Mexico, which should allow for some strengthening. However,
Gordon is a small tropical cyclone and subtle changes in shear
(both up and down) can result in fairly quick intensity changes for
systems like this. The NHC intensity forecast assumes that shear
will not be prohibitive and that Gordon will become a hurricane
before reaching the northern Gulf coast. The NHC intensity
forecast is close to the SHIPS guidance through 24 hours, then
follows the HFIP corrected consensus after landfall which shows
Gordon weakening rapidly over land.

Gordon is moving west-northwestward at about 15 kt. The tropical
storm is expected to maintain a west-northwestward to northwestward
heading during the next few days while it moves around the
southwestern portion of a large deep-layer ridge centered over the
Mid-Atlantic states. After that time, the cyclone should decelerate
as it moves around the western periphery of the ridge. The track
guidance continues to be tightly clustered through 72 h, and no
significant changes were required to the previous NHC track
forecast.

Key Messages:

1. Gordon is expected to bring life-threatening storm surge and
hurricane conditions to portions of the central Gulf Coast where a
Storm Surge Warning and Hurricane Warning are in effect. Residents
in these areas should listen to advice from their local officials.
All preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion, as tropical storm conditions are expected to arrive in
the warning areas Tuesday afternoon.

2. Heavy rainfall from Gordon will affect southern Alabama, southern
Mississippi and Louisiana, where totals could reach as high as 8
inches. This rainfall could cause flash flooding.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0300Z 26.9N 84.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 04/1200Z 28.3N 86.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 05/0000Z 30.0N 88.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 05/1200Z 31.6N 90.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
48H 06/0000Z 32.9N 91.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
72H 07/0000Z 34.6N 93.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND
96H 08/0000Z 36.5N 94.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 09/0000Z 39.5N 93.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown
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