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Tropical Tropical Storm Gordon

Snowfan

Snowfan

When NW trend?
Member
Joined
Jan 5, 2017
Messages
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Location
Not telling
Was just designated this morning.
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the southeastern and
central Bahamas and adjacent Atlantic waters, including the Straits
of Florida, are associated with a tropical wave interacting with an
upper-level trough. This weather system is expected to move
west-northwestward across the remainder of the Bahamas, southern
Florida, and the Florida Keys during the next day or so and little,
if any, development is expected during that time due to strong
upper-level winds. However, the current unfavorable upper-level
wind pattern is expected to gradually change and become more
conducive for a tropical depression to form over the eastern and
central Gulf of Mexico by Tuesday or Wednesday. This disturbance
will spread locally heavy rains across much of the Bahamas, southern
Florida, and the Keys during the next day or two. See products from
your local weather forecast office for more information.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart
Click to expand...
 
Recon as early as tomorrow morning

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1230 PM EDT SUN 02 SEPTEMBER 2018
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 03/1100Z TO 04/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2018
TCPOD NUMBER.....18-101

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (APPROACHING SE GULF OF MEXICO)
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 71 FLIGHT TWO - NOAA 42
A. 03/1500Z A. 03/2200Z
B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST B. NOAA2 0207A CYCLONE
C. 03/1230Z C. 03/2030Z
D. 24.7N 80.7W D. 25.6N 82.1W
E. 03/1430Z TO 03/1900Z E. 03/2130Z TO 04/0130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

FLIGHT THREE - TEAL 72 FLIGHT FOUR - NOAA 42
A. 03/2330Z,04/0530Z A. 04/1000Z
B. AFXXX 0307A CYCLONE B. NOAA2 0407A CYCLONE
C. 03/2130Z C. 04/0830Z
D. 25.8N 82.5W D. 27.1N 84.8W
E. 03/2300Z TO 04/0530Z E. 04/0930Z TO 04/1330Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

FLIGHT FIVE - TEAL 73
A. 04/1130Z,1730Z
B. AFXXX 0507A CYCLONE
C. 04/1000Z
D. 27.3N 85.3W
E. 04/1100Z TO 04/1730Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
A. CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND REMAINS
A THREAT.
B. ANOTHER POSSIBLE NOAA 42 P-3 TAIL DOPPLER RADAR MISSION
IN SUSPECT AREA DEPARTING KLAL AT 04/2030Z.
Click to expand...
 
1. Thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave located
between north-central Cuba and the central Bahamas is gradually
becoming better organized, and upper-level winds are also becoming
more favorable. A tropical depression is likely to form during the
next day or so while the system moves west-northwestward across the
northwestern Bahamas, southern Florida, and the Florida Keys. The
system is forecast to emerge over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by
early Tuesday and move toward the north-central Gulf Coast Tuesday
night and Wednesday. This system will produce locally heavy rains
and gusty winds across the central and northwestern Bahamas,
southern Florida, and the Florida Keys during the next day or two. A
tropical storm watch could be issued for portions of the northern
Gulf Coast tonight. Interests in these areas should monitor the
progress of this system. For more information, see products from
your local weather forecast office and High Seas Forecasts issued by
the National Weather Service. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance
aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system tomorrow.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
 
Euro is into Louisiana them almost right over Brent . CMC and gfs are further east . The cmc seems like the best track with the gfs and euro on either sides. With the ridging over the mid Atlantic the eastern most track ( gfs ) seems very unlikely
 
760
WTNT32 KNHC 022042
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072018
500 PM EDT Sun Sep 02 2018

...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AND HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE OVER
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.7N 77.3W
ABOUT 100 MI...155 KM NNE OF CAMAGUEY CUBA
ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM ESE OF MARATHON FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.89 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for portions of the central
Gulf Coast from the Alabama-Florida border westward to east of
Morgan City, Louisiana, including Lake Pontchartrain and Lake
Maurepas.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Alabama-Florida border westward to east of Morgan City, Louisiana,
including Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas

Interests in the Florida Keys and the southern Florida peninsula
should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
22.7 North, longitude 77.3 West. The system is moving toward the
west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general motion is
expected to continue through Wednesday. On the forecast track, the
disturbance will pass over the Florida Keys Monday afternoon, emerge
over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by Monday evening, and reach
the central Gulf Coast by Tuesday night or Wednesday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the
disturbance is expected to become a tropical depression Monday
morning and a tropical storm by Monday evening.

Conditions appear to be conducive for development, and this system
is expected to become a tropical depression by Monday morning.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1012 mb (29.89 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area by Tuesday night and Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force wind gusts
will be possible Monday afternoon and evening across portions of
South Florida and the Florida Keys.

RAINFALL: The disturbance is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 2 to 4 inches over the central and northwestern
Bahamas, the Florida Keys, and South Florida through early Tuesday.
Isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches are possible over the southern
Florida peninsula. This rainfall may cause flash flooding. The
disturbance is expected to produce heavy rainfall along the central
Gulf Coast of the United States by the middle of the week.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart
Click to expand...
713
WTNT42 KNHC 022046
TCDAT2

Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072018
500 PM EDT Sun Sep 02 2018

The area of disturbed weather associated with a tropical wave that
the NHC has been tracking for the past few days has become better
organized today. Strong winds previously associated with an upper-
level trough just west of the system have decreased significantly
during the day, and the upper-level flow across the disturbance has
become more anticyclonic. Earlier scatterometer wind data indicated
that the system does not yet have a closed surface circulation.
However, the same data indicate that winds of 25-28 kt exist outside
of thunderstorm activity, with some higher gusts likely present.
The initial intensity is being set at a conservative 25 kt for this
advisory.

The initial motion estimate is an uncertain 300/13 kt. The global
models are in excellent agreement that the strong subtropical ridge
to the north of the disturbance will remain entrenched across the
southeastern U.S. and mid-Atlantic states throughout the forecast
period. This flow pattern should keep the system moving in a west-
northwestward to northwestward motion until landfall occurs along
the central Gulf coast in 60-72 hours. The model tracks are tightly
packed, so the NHC official forecast track essentially lies down the
middle of the guidance envelope. On the forecast track, the system
is expected to move across the Florida Keys Monday afternoon, and
reach the central Gulf Coast by Tuesday night or Wednesday morning.

The aforementioned upper-level anticyclonic has been steadily
increasing during the day today, with weak cirrus outflow now
occurring in all quadrants. The disturbance is forecast to move
across the very warm waters of the Gulfstream late tonight and early
Monday morning where local diabatic heating should enhance deep
convection near the mid-level circulation, causing the vortex column
to build downward to the surface. Once a closed surface circulation
develops, the combination of low to modest vertical shear and SSTs
of at least 30C along the track should allow for at least slow but
steady strengthening. Although the official intensity forecast shows
weakening at 72 hours, this is due to the system expected to be
inland at that time. Conditions will favorable for continued
strengthening after the 48-h period until landfall occurs, and a
peak intensity of around 55 kt around 60 hours is possible. The
SHIPS and LGEM models were the only intensity guidance available for
this package, and the official forecast is just a little below an
average of those models. The HWRF and HMON models will be
forthcoming for the next advisory package, so some adjustments to
this first intensity forecast may be required as more guidance
becomes available.

Key Messages:

1. Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven will bring heavy rainfall and
gusty winds to portions of the Bahamas, South Florida, and the
Florida Keys tonight and Monday, and interests in those areas should
monitor the progress of this system.

2. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for portions of the
central Gulf Coast, and tropical storm conditions are possible in
those areas Tuesday night and Wednesday. Heavy rainfall from this
system will affect portions of the central Gulf Coast later this
week, including areas that are currently receiving heavy rainfall
from a different weather system. Interests in these areas should
monitor products from their local National Weather Service office.

3. Users should be aware that forecast uncertainty for potential
tropical cylones is generally larger than that for tropical
cyclones, especially beyond 48-72 hours.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/2100Z 22.7N 77.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 03/0600Z 23.7N 79.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H 03/1800Z 25.1N 81.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 04/0600Z 26.6N 84.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 04/1800Z 28.0N 87.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 05/1800Z 30.6N 91.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
96H 06/1800Z 33.0N 94.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
120H 07/1800Z 34.0N 95.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Stewart
Click to expand...
 
303
WTNT32 KNHC 022347
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven Intermediate Advisory Number 1A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072018
800 PM EDT Sun Sep 02 2018

...DISTURBANCE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AND HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE OVER
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.0N 77.8W
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM N OF CAMAGUEY CUBA
ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM ESE OF MARATHON FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.89 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Alabama-Florida border westward to east of Morgan City, Louisiana,
including Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas

Interests in the Florida Keys and the southern Florida peninsula
should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
23.0 North, longitude 77.8 West. The system is moving toward the
west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general motion is
expected to continue through Wednesday. On the forecast track, the
disturbance will pass over the Florida Keys or the southern portion
of the Florida peninsula Monday, and move over the southeastern Gulf
of Mexico by Monday evening, and reach the central Gulf Coast by
late Tuesday or Tuesday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours,
and the disturbance is expected to become a tropical depression
on Monday and a tropical storm Monday night.

Conditions appear to be conducive for development, and this system
is expected to become a tropical depression on Monday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1012 mb (29.89 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area by late Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force wind gusts will be
possible Monday across portions of South Florida and the Florida
Keys.

RAINFALL: The disturbance is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 2 to 4 inches over the central and northwestern
Bahamas, the Florida Keys, and South Florida through early Tuesday.
Isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches are possible over the southern
Florida peninsula. This rainfall may cause flash flooding. The
disturbance is expected to produce heavy rainfall along the central
Gulf Coast of the United States by the middle of the week.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown/Cangialosi
Click to expand...
 
Storm5 said:
Gordon is on the way . NHC appears to be using the euro with the track
Click to expand...
Wish it would curve some and give us some rain here in Alabama and Tennessee. Been dry here for past few weeks pretty bad. Also notice we are back on low side of drought monitor.
 
DarkKnight said:
Wish it would curve some and give us some rain here in Alabama and Tennessee. Been dry here for past few weeks pretty bad. Also notice we are back on low side of drought monitor.
Click to expand...
Yeah, wish it would drift over SC after landfall, but with 4-5 possible storm parading across the Atlantic, according to the models, maybe I can score some rain out of one of them!
We need to watch for POSSIBLE RI , as it hits the very warm waters and better environment, as it looks to be moving towards LA
 
We have Tropical Storm Gordon.
Tropical Storm Gordon Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072018
805 AM EDT Mon Sep 03 2018

...TROPICAL STORM GORDON FORMS NEAR THE UPPER FLORIDA KEYS...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND
THE KEYS...

Surface observations from the Florida Keys and radar data indicate
that Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven has become Tropical Storm
Gordon, with maximum sustained winds of around 45 mph (75 km/h). A
Tropical Storm Warning will be issued shortly for portions of the
Florida Keys and the southern Florida peninsula in a forthcoming
special advisory to be issued by 900 AM EDT (1300 UTC).

SUMMARY OF 805 AM EDT...1205 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.1N 80.6W
ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM W OF KEY LARGO FLORIDA
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM E OF CAPE SABLE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.79 INCHES
 
So Gordon is our second landfalling system of the year, with Florida being its first landfall. Sort of hard to determine if it was but its center is over land so therefore I am counting it as a landfall.
 
hwrf_ref_07L_13.png
Any thoughts?
 
NHC Shifted the track a little east this morning as the euro and cmc were east of previous runs . The gfs remains the far eastern outlier with landfall along the Mississippi coast
 
Just a question? Since this is our big story as of now, can we go live
 
ForsythSnow said:
The HWRF always does this with storms. If what Webber mentioned about the friction from land mass being true and the system is a fast mover, this isn't likely. If it was a bit slower, yes, it could be likely.
Click to expand...
Your right, also with just 16 mph movement and a hot tub awaiting, I can see it reach strong TS
Or cat 1 at the most. Who knows, it's gonna be a big rain maker
 
674
WTNT32 KNHC 031227
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gordon Special Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072018
830 AM EDT Mon Sep 03 2018

...TROPICAL STORM GORDON FORMS OVER THE UPPER FLORIDA KEYS...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA
AND THE FLORIDA KEYS WITH HEAVY RAINS LIKELY...


SUMMARY OF 830 AM EDT...1230 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.1N 80.7W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM W OF KEY LARGO FLORIDA
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM SE OF MARCO ISLAND FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for portions of South
Florida from Golden Beach to Bonita Beach, and for the Florida
Keys from Craig Key to Ocean Reef, including Florida Bay.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Mississippi-Alabama border westward to the Mouth of the
Mississippi River

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Golden Beach to Bonita Beach
* Craig Key to Ocean Reef, including Florida Bay
* Alabama-Florida border westward to east of Morgan City, Louisiana,
including Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning areas.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 830 AM EDT (1230 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gordon was
located by NOAA Doppler weather radar and surface observations
near latitude 25.1 North, longitude 80.7 West. Gordon is moving
toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h) and a west-
northwestward to northwestward motion is expected over the next
72 hours. On the forecast track, the center of Gordon will pass
over the southern tip of the Florida peninsula this morning, move
over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico this afternoon and evening, and
reach the warning area along the central Gulf Coast by late Tuesday
or Tuesday night.

Surface observations and radar data indicate that maximum sustained
winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Destin Florida to the Mississippi-Alabama border...1 to 2 ft.
Mississippi-Alabama border to the Mouth of Mississippi River...2 to
4 ft
Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Louisiana-Texas border...1 to
2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the
relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary
greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area,
please see products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office.

RAINFALL: Gordon is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
2 to 4 inches over the central and northwestern Bahamas, the Florida
Keys, and South Florida through early Tuesday. Isolated maximum
amounts of 8 inches are possible over the southern Florida
peninsula.

Gordon is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 6
inches over southern Alabama, southern Mississippi and Louisiana,
with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches through early Thursday.

These rainfall amounts may cause flash flooding.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the warning areas
across South Florida and the Florida Keys, and those conditions
should continue through the afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are
expected within portions of the central Gulf Coast warning area by
late Tuesday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart
Click to expand...
678
WTNT42 KNHC 031236
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Gordon Special Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072018
830 AM EDT Mon Sep 03 2018

Surface observations from the Florida Keys and southeast Florida,
along with Doppler velocity data from the Miami radar, indicate
that the disturbance has developed a closed surface circulation and
a well-defined center. Recent observations from a Weatherflow site
at Carys Fort Reef and radar data support increasing the maximum
winds to at least 40 kt. As a result of these data, the system has
been upgraded to Tropical Storm Gordon, the seventh named system of
the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season. An Air Force Reserve Unit
reconnaissance aircraft is enroute to investigate Gordon.

The initial motion estimate is 300/15 kt and the previous forecast
track remains unchanged. The intensity forecast was adjusted upward
in the first 24 to 36 hours to account for the initial increase in
intensity. Some additional adjustments may be required after the
reconnaissance aircraft completes its mission and provides more
detailed information on the stricture and intensity of Gordon.

Key Messages:

1. Gordon will bring heavy rainfall and tropical storm conditions to
portions of South Florida and the Florida Keys today and a Tropical
Storm Warning is in effect for these areas.

2. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for portions of the
central Gulf Coast, and tropical storm conditions are expected in
those areas beginning late Tuesday. Heavy rainfall from Gordon will
affect portions of the central Gulf Coast over the next few days,
including areas that have already received heavy rainfall from a
different weather system. Interests in these areas should monitor
products from their local National Weather Service office.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/1230Z 25.1N 80.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 03/1800Z 25.7N 82.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 04/0600Z 27.2N 84.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 04/1800Z 28.8N 87.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 05/0600Z 30.4N 89.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 06/0600Z 33.0N 92.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 07/0600Z 34.0N 95.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
120H 08/0600Z 35.5N 96.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Stewart
Click to expand...
 
ForsythSnow said:
The HWRF always does this with storms. If what Webber mentioned about the friction from land mass being true and the system is a fast mover, this isn't likely. If it was a bit slower, yes, it could be likely.
Click to expand...
Agreed, the HWRF is notorious for doing this....
 
225
WTNT32 KNHC 031447
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gordon Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072018
1100 AM EDT Mon Sep 03 2018

...GORDON LASHING SOUTH FLORIDA WITH TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS AND
HEAVY RAINS...
...STORM SURGE WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.3N 81.3W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM WNW OF KEY LARGO FLORIDA
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM SSE OF MARCO ISLAND FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Storm Surge Warning has been issued from Shell Beach, Louisiana,
to the Mississippi-Alabama border.

The Storm Surge Watch has been extended eastward from the
Mississippi-Alabama border to Navarre, Florida.

A Hurricane Watch has been issued from the Mouth of the Pearl River
to the Alabama-Florida Border.

The Tropical Storm Warning has been extended eastward to the
Okaloosa-Walton County Line.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Shell Beach to Mississippi-Alabama border

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* West of Shell Beach to the Mouth of the Mississippi River
* East of the Mississippi-Alabama border to Navarre

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Pearl River to the Alabama-Florida Border

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Golden Beach to Bonita Beach
* Craig Key to Ocean Reef, including Florida Bay
* Okaloosa-Walton County Line westward to east of Morgan City,
Louisiana, including Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning areas.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gordon was
located near latitude 25.3 North, longitude 81.3 West. Gordon is
moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h) and a west-
northwestward to northwestward motion is expected over the next
72 hours. On the forecast track, the center of Gordon will emerge
over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by early afternoon, reach
the warning area along the central Gulf Coast by late Tuesday or
Tuesday night, and move inland over the lower Mississippi Valley on
Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
strengthening is forecast during the next 36 to 48 hours, and
Gordon could be near hurricane strength when it makes landfall
along the central Gulf Coast.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Shell Beach to the Mississippi-Alabama border...3 to 5 ft.
Navarre Florida to the Mississippi-Alabama border...2 to 4 ft.
Shell Beach to the Mouth of Mississippi River...2 to 4 ft.
Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Louisiana-Texas border...1 to
2 ft.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the
relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary
greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area,
please see products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office.

RAINFALL: Gordon is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
2 to 4 inches over the central and northwestern Bahamas, the Florida
Keys, and South Florida through early Tuesday. Isolated maximum
amounts of 8 inches are possible over the southern Florida
peninsula.

Gordon is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 6
inches over southern Alabama, southern Mississippi and Louisiana,
with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches through early Thursday.

These rainfall amounts may cause flash flooding.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue through the
afternoon in the warning areas across South Florida and the Florida
Keys. Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the
central Gulf Coast warning area by late Tuesday, with hurricane
conditions possible late Tuesday or Tuesday night in the hurricane
watch area.

TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes are possible through tonight
across the southern and west-central Florida Peninsula.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart
Click to expand...
618
WTNT42 KNHC 031455
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Gordon Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072018
1100 AM EDT Mon Sep 03 2018

Surface observations from the Florida Keys and southeast Florida,
along with Doppler velocity data from the Miami radar, indicate that
Gordon has continued to become organized this morning. The center
of the cyclone passed over Key Largo between 1100-1200 UTC,
producing a west wind in Islamorada and also at an observing site
in Florida Bay. Doppler velocity data and surface observations
support an intensity of 40 kt for this advisory. An Air Force
Reserve Unit reconnaissance aircraft is currently investigating
Gordon.

The initial motion estimate is 300/14 kt. The latest model
guidance has shifted slightly to the right, but this is likely due
to the more northerly initial position. Other than that, the models
remain tightly packed and agree on a general west-northwestward to
northwestward motion for the next 48 hours right up until landfall
as the strong ridge to the north of Gordon moves little. The new NHC
forecast track was adjusted a little to the right of the previous
advisory track, but not as far to the east as some of the model
guidance out of respect for the reliable ECMWF deterministic run,
which is located on the southern edge of the guidance and shows
landfall near the mouth of the Mississippi River, a solution that is
also supported by the new 0600Z short-range UKMET model run.

Gordon's appearance in both radar and satellite imagery has
continued to improve over the past several hours. The GFS- and
ECMWF-based SHIPS models indicate that westerly to northwesterly
vertical wind shear of about 10 kt is allegedly affecting Gordon,
but there are no indications of that in satellite imagery that I
can see. The cirrus outflow has continued to expand in all
quadrants, so the analyzed westerly shear is likely an artifact of
the small circulation being positioned so close to the strong trough
located its west. Since Gordon will be moving over sea-surface
temperatures near 30 deg C during the next 36-48 hours, and be near
or underneath an upper-level anticyclone, steady strengthening seems
likely. It is possible that Gordon could peak as a Category 1
hurricane after 36 hours, just before landfall occurs. For that
reason, a Hurricane Watch has been issued for portions of the
central Gulf Coast. The new intensity forecast is above the previous
advisory, and is close to a blend of the consensus models
HCCA, FSSE, and IVCN.

Key Messages:

1. Gordon will bring heavy rainfall and tropical storm conditions
to portions of South Florida and the Florida Keys today and a
Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for these areas.

2. Gordon is expected to bring life-threatening storm surge to
portions of the central Gulf Coast and a Storm Surge Warning has
been issued from the Mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi-
Alabama border. Residents in these areas should listen to advice
from their local officials and all preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

3. A Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch are in effect for
portions of the central Gulf Coast. Tropical storm conditions are
expected to reach those areas late Tuesday, with hurricane
conditions possible in the watch area.

4. Heavy rainfall from Gordon will affect southern Alabama, southern
Mississippi and Louisiana, where totals could reach as high as 8
inches. This rainfall could cause flash flooding.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/1500Z 25.3N 81.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 04/0000Z 26.5N 83.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 04/1200Z 28.1N 86.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 05/0000Z 29.9N 88.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 05/1200Z 31.3N 90.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
72H 06/1200Z 33.9N 93.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
96H 07/1200Z 34.8N 94.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND
120H 08/1200Z 37.6N 95.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Stewart
Click to expand...
 
It does seem like the TS Warning extends a bit further east into the Florida Panhandle than it did earlier...Screenshot 2018-09-03 at 11.22.25 AM.png
 
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