Tropical Tropical Storm Gabrielle

[ForsythSnow]

Not to detract from Dorian, but this just formed off Africa.

1. A broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave is
located just south of the Cabo Verde Islands. This system has become
better organized since yesterday, and environmental conditions
appear conducive for additional development during the next several
days. A tropical depression is likely to form by the middle of the
week while the system moves generally northwestward across the
eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean. Heavy rainfall is possible over
portions of the southern Cabo Verde Islands during the next couple
of days, and interests on those islands should monitor the progress
of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

 

[SnowNotHappen]

Looks like this is definitely OTS?

 

[Snowfan]

A broad area of low pressure centered near the Cabo Verde Islands is
producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms. This system is
showing signs of becoming better organized, and environmental
conditions appear conducive for additional development during the
next several days. A tropical depression is likely to form by the
middle of the week while the system moves generally northwestward
across the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean. Heavy rainfall is
possible over portions of the southern Cabo Verde Islands during the
next day or so, and interests on those islands should monitor the
progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Now up to 60/70.

 

[Snowfan]

An area of low pressure located about 100 miles west-southwest of
the Cabo Verde Islands is producing a large area of showers and
thunderstorms. This system is gradually becoming better organized,
and environmental conditions appear conducive for additional
development during the next several days. A tropical depression is
likely to form by the middle of the week while the system moves
generally northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean.
Heavy rainfall is possible over portions of the southern Cabo Verde
Islands during the next day or two, and interests on those islands
should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

 

[BirdManDoomW]

With the euro developing it and taking it just east of Bermuda..it bares watching some.

 

[BufordWX]

80/80 chances of development with this one now.

Recent satellite-derived surface wind data indicate that the low
pressure system located about 150 miles west-southwest of the Cabo
Verde Islands has become better defined. Shower and thunderstorm
activity is beginning to show signs of organization, and
environmental conditions appear conducive for a tropical depression
to form during the next day or so while the system moves generally
northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean. Locally
heavy rainfall will be possible over the Cabo Verde Islands through
Tuesday.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

 

[Brent]

Fishy Fernand?

 

[Snowfan]

Recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that an elongated area
of low pressure located a few hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde
Islands has become better defined since yesterday. Although this
system is currently producing limited showers and thunderstorms, a
tropical depression is expected to form during the next day or so
while the system moves generally northwestward across the eastern
tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

 

[Snowfan]

An elongated area of low pressure is located a few hundred miles
west of the Cabo Verde Islands. Although this system is currently
producing limited showers and thunderstorms, a tropical depression
is expected to form during the next day or so while the system moves
generally northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

 

[BufordWX]

Up to 90/90 odds. Should have something later today.

Recent satellite-derived surface winds indicate that the low
pressure area located a few hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde
Islands is becoming better defined. Associated thunderstorm
activity has been increasing and showing signs of organization, and
a tropical depression is expected to form later today while the
system moves generally northwestward across the eastern tropical
Atlantic Ocean.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

 

[Snowfan]

An area of low pressure located a few hundred miles west of the
Cabo Verde Islands continues to become better defined. The
associated thunderstorm activity has been increasing, and a tropical
depression is expected to form later today while the system moves
generally northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

 

[Snowfan]

An area of low pressure located a few hundred miles west of the Cabo
Verde Islands continues to exhibit a broad circulation. Any
significant increase in thunderstorms would contribute to the
formation of a tropical depression.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

 

[BufordWX]

Just got designated as Tropical Depression 8.

Tropical Depression Eight Advisory 1:

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC...

LOCATION: 19.0N 32.3W
ABOUT 585 MI WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: 35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT: NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1006 MB

Current Forecast Track/Intensity:

12H: 19.7N 33.2W 40 MPH
24H: 20.4N 34.0W 45 MPH
36H: 21.4N 34.9W 50 MPH
48H: 22.4N 35.8W 50 MPH
72H: 26.2N 38.5W 50 MPH
96H: 30.0N 41.5W 50 MPH
120H: 34.0N 45.5W 50 MPH

 

[Brent]

We are flying through the names now

AL, 08, 2019090400, , BEST, 0, 195N, 324W, 35, 1005, TS, 34, NEQ, 60, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 160, 50, 45, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, GABRIELLE, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 016,

 

[BufordWX]

NHC still sticking with this being a Depression per latest advisory.

Tropical Depression Eight Advisory 2:

...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TO A TROPICAL STORM ON
WEDNESDAY...

LOCATION: 19.1N 32.8W
ABOUT 615 MI WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: 35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT: NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 8 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1006 MB

Track/Intensity Forecast:

12H: 19.7N 33.6W 40 MPH
24H: 20.6N 34.6W 45 MPH
36H: 21.6N 35.6W 50 MPH
48H: 23.0N 36.6W 60 MPH
72H: 27.1N 39.6W 60 MPH
96H: 31.7N 43.1W 60 MPH
120H: 35.4N 46.1W 60 MPH

 

[Brent]

lol that's really unusual to actually name it and then unname it...

 

[Snowfan]

SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.6N 33.6W
ABOUT 680 MI...1090 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 1330 MI...2140 KM SSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

Now it's Gabrielle.

 

[Snowfan]

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.5N 33.8W
ABOUT 715 MI...1150 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 1275 MI...2050 KM SSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES

 

[BufordWX]

Gabrielle now forecast to become a hurricane by the end of the next 5 days.

Tropical Storm Gabrielle Advisory 5:

...GABRIELLE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OVER EASTERN ATLANTIC...

LOCATION: 21.0N 34.0W
ABOUT 740 MI WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 1245 MI SSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: 50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT: NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 9 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1002 MB

Track/Intensity Forecast:

12H: 21.7N 34.6W 60 MPH
24H: 22.8N 35.8W 60 MPH
36H: 24.2N 37.4W 50 MPH
48H: 26.1N 39.1W 50 MPH
72H: 30.0N 43.2W 60 MPH
96H: 33.0N 47.5W 65 MPH
120H: 36.5N 48.5W 75 MPH

 

[BufordWX]

Tropical Storm Gabrielle is expected to hold steady for the next few days before possibly strengthening into a category 1 Hurricane this weekend.

Tropical Storm Gabrielle Advisory 6:

...GABRIELLE MAINTAINS ITS INTENSITY WHILE MOVING NORTHWEST
OVER OPEN WATERS...

LOCATION: 21.5N 34.4W
ABOUT 780 MI WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 1220 MI SSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: 50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT: NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 7 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1002 MB

Track/Intensity Forecast:

12H: 22.4N 35.2W 50 MPH
24H: 23.7N 36.6W 50 MPH
36H: 25.4N 38.3W 50 MPH
48H: 27.3N 40.2W 50 MPH
72H: 30.8N 44.6W 65 MPH
96H: 34.0N 48.0W 75 MPH
120H: 37.5N 48.0W 75 MPH

 

[Snowfan]

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.8N 35.5W
ABOUT 885 MI...1420 KM NW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 1165 MI...1875 KM SSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES

 

[Snowfan]

SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.4N 35.9W
ABOUT 925 MI...1490 KM NW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 1135 MI...1830 KM SSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES

 

[BufordWX]

Gabrielle is struggling mightily right now. NHC is saying it is possible it becomes a post tropical remnant low tomorrow, but they still think it might survive longer.

Tropical Storm Gabrielle Advisory 10:

...GABRIELLE BARELY HOLDING ON AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE...

LOCATION: 24.3N 36.6W
ABOUT 995 MI NW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 1100 MI SW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: 40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT: NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 14 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1004 MB

Track/Intensity Forecast:

12H: 25.7N 38.0W 40 MPH
24H: 27.9N 40.2W 40 MPH
36H: 29.7N 42.7W 45 MPH
48H: 31.1N 45.3W 50 MPH
72H: 34.3N 48.2W 65 MPH
96H: 38.5N 45.5W 70 MPH
120H: 44.5N 38.0W 70 MPH

 

[BufordWX]

Gabrielle has transitioned into a post-tropical cyclone, but is expected to regain tropical status later this weekend before again transforming into a post tropical cyclone early next week.

Post-Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle Advisory 11:

...GABRIELLE BECOMES A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC...
...REGENERATION INTO A TROPICAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER THE
WEEKEND...

LOCATION: 25.5N 37.6W
ABOUT 1095 MI NW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 1060 MI SW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: 40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT: NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1004 MB

Track/Intensity Forecast:

12H: 27.1N 39.2W 35 MPH. POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H: 29.2N 41.8W 35 MPH. POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H: 30.7N 44.8W 40 MPH TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 31.9N 47.4W 50 MPH
72H: 35.6N 48.6W 65 MPH
96H: 40.4N 44.3W 70 MPH
120H: 47.0N 34.5W 65 MPH POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

 

[BufordWX]

Gabrielle has transitioned into a post-tropical cyclone, but is expected to regain tropical status later this weekend before again transforming into a post tropical cyclone early next week.

Post-Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle Advisory 11:

...GABRIELLE BECOMES A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC...
...REGENERATION INTO A TROPICAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER THE
WEEKEND...

LOCATION: 25.5N 37.6W
ABOUT 1095 MI NW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 1060 MI SW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: 40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT: NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1004 MB

Track/Intensity Forecast:
View attachment 23250
12H: 27.1N 39.2W 35 MPH. POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H: 29.2N 41.8W 35 MPH. POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H: 30.7N 44.8W 40 MPH TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 31.9N 47.4W 50 MPH
72H: 35.6N 48.6W 65 MPH
96H: 40.4N 44.3W 70 MPH
120H: 47.0N 34.5W 65 MPH POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

NHC giving Gabrielle a 80% chance at a comeback.

An area of low pressure, the remnants of Gabrielle, is producing
an area of showers and thunderstorms to the north of its center.
Although upper-level winds are not particularly favorable for
re-development of this system at this time, conditions are expected
to become increasingly conducive for regeneration, and the low is
likely to become a tropical storm again within the next day or so.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

 

[ForsythSnow]

And it's back again lol.

...GABRIELLE QUICKLY REGENERATES INTO A TROPICAL STORM... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE EARLY NEXT WEEK...

 

[Snowfan]

And it's back again lol.

...GABRIELLE QUICKLY REGENERATES INTO A TROPICAL STORM... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE EARLY NEXT WEEK...

That was quick.

 

[BufordWX]

Newly reformed Gabrielle is now expected to become a hurricane by early next week before turning extra-tropical by the middle of the week as it blasts to the northeast.

Tropical Storm Gabrielle Advisory 13:

...GABRIELLE FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE EARLY NEXT WEEK...

LOCATION: 27.9N 39.6W
ABOUT 1010 MI SW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: 45 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT: NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 17 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1003 MB

Track/Intensity Forecast:

12H: 29.3N 41.7W 50 MPH
24H: 30.8N 44.5W 60 MPH
36H: 32.2N 47.0W 65 MPH
48H: 33.9N 48.4W 75 MPH
72H: 38.5N 46.0W 90 MPH
96H: 44.0N 38.5W 80 MPH
120H: 53.0N 23.0W 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

 

[BufordWX]

Tropical Storm Gabrielle Advisory 14:

...GABRIELLE INTENSIFYING OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...

LOCATION: 29.3N 40.9W
ABOUT 1000 MI WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: 60 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT: NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 18 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE: 999 MB

Track/Intensity Forecast:

12H: 30.9N 42.9W 65 MPH
24H: 32.1N 45.6W 70 MPH
36H: 33.7N 47.5W 80 MPH
48H: 35.7N 48.0W 85 MPH
72H: 40.5N 44.0W 90 MPH
96H: 47.0N 34.0W 80 MPH
120H: 56.1N 16.5W 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

 

[Snowfan]

SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.9N 42.1W
ABOUT 990 MI...1590 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES

 

[Snowfan]

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.4N 43.7W
ABOUT 1050 MI...1690 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES

 

[Snowfan]

SUMMARY OF 1230 PM AST...1630 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.4N 45.2W
ABOUT 1125 MI...1815 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES

 

[Snowfan]

...GABRIELLE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.9N 46.5W
ABOUT 1180 MI...1895 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES

 

[Snowfan]

...GABRIELLE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN ON SUNDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.0N 48.0W
ABOUT 1255 MI...2020 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES

 

[Snowfan]

...GABRIELLE STRENGTHENS A LITTLE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.7N 48.6W
ABOUT 1265 MI...2040 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES

 

[Snowfan]

...GABRIELLE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN A LITTLE MORE TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.8N 49.0W
ABOUT 1260 MI...2030 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES

 

[Snowfan]

...GABRIELLE SLOWLY STRENGTHENING AND EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHEAST
LATER TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.3N 49.4W
ABOUT 1250 MI...2015 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES

 

[Snowfan]

...GABRIELLE MOVING NORTHWARD...
...EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD AND ACCELERATE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.5N 49.3W
ABOUT 1225 MI...1975 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES

 

[Snowfan]

...GABRIELLE TURNS NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...
...EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD AND ACCELERATE...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.7N 48.5W
ABOUT 1170 MI...1885 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES

 

[Snowfan]

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...39.0N 47.3W
ABOUT 1095 MI...1765 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES