Tropical Tropical Storm Beryl 2024

[Arcc]

To add to this, a faster NE turn would make this worse.

 

[accu35]

Is it me or does Beryl looks to be a NNW motion?

 

[Belle Lechat]

The recon planes, top of this page, didn't go to Beryl.

 

[Henry2326]

Quite a shift North.

 

[Belle Lechat]

Is it me or does Beryl looks to be a NNW motion?

Sure.

Soundtrack

 

[jrips27]

Quite a shift North.

They will need to shift north 30-40 miles again on the 5pm track update here shortly

 

[Brent]

Not gonna be over the Yucatan nearly as long as forecast

The track is gonna shift more NE

 

[Snowfan]

Not gonna be over the Yucatan nearly as long as forecast

The track is gonna shift more NE

This is the most stubborn storm ever.

 

[Belle Lechat]

If the recon planes won't go to Beryl, Beryl will go to the recon planes?

EDIT Well look what just updated.

 

[Brick Tamland]

Wonder if it will blow up once it is back in the Gulf like we have seen with other storms the past few years.

 

[Snowfan]

Wonder if it will blow up once it is back in the Gulf like we have seen with other storms the past few years.

Models indicate it will struggle with dry air for about a day and then on Sunday, intensify.

 

[Brent]

EPS still shifting NE

 

[Belle Lechat]

That light northern arm of Beryl is coming up on the storm arc in the southeast US.

 

[Brick Tamland]

Models indicate it will struggle with dry air for about a day and then on Sunday, intensify.

Just wonder how much it will intensify. We have seen them go from a cat 1 to cat 3 overnight the past few years.

 

[GaWx]

The small hope I have is that Beryl struggles to re-intensify off of the Yucatan like the struggle of Isidore of 2002. Any thoughts? I remember this well. It was very large (see image below), which probably was a negating factor. Beryl is much smaller. Thus, my hope for a slow re-intensification like for Isidore is limited:

"The inner core of convection collapsed while over southeast Mexico, and upon moving northward and reaching the Gulf of Mexico again, it was a large but weak tropical storm. Conditions favored significant strengthening, but Isidore did not redevelop central convection until reaching the northern Gulf of Mexico. The strengthening system hit Grand Isle, Louisiana on September 26 with maximum sustained winds of 65 mph (105 km/h)"

Hurricane Isidore - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[Snowfan]

 

[Snowfan]

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Hurricane Watch is now in effect for the Texas coast from the
mouth of the Rio Grande northward to Sargent.

A Storm Surge Watch is now in effect for the Texas coast from the
mouth of the Rio Grande northward to Sargent.

The Meteorological Service of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch
for the northeastern coast of Mexico from Barra el Mezquital to
the mouth of the Rio Grande.

 

[Belle Lechat]

4:00 PM CDT Fri Jul 5
Location: 21.2°N 89.2°W
Moving: WNW at 15 mph
Min pressure: 989 mb
Max sustained: 65 mph

 

[Snowfan]

 

[Brent]

The new
intensity forecast now calls for an 80-kt intensity at landfall in
best agreement with the HWRF, HAFS-B, and HMON models, and this
could be conservative if Beryl stays over water longer than
currently forecast.