12z Gfs is Much much weaker. Looks like the euro
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Can someone say Deja Vu12z Gfs is Much much weaker. Looks like the euro
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CMC has the same weak system but steers it into Florida1013 pressure at Day 8 headed OTS
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CMC has the same weak system but steers it into Florida
12z Gfs is Much much weaker. Looks like the euro
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It's gonna be a few days before we have a real clue ...94L looking better organized at this hour
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Big spread on the 12z gefs . Of course this is all post day 11 and most are turning NE
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It's a watching exercise for a while ...Be that as it may, the 12 Euro as of day 3.5 is further south and stronger vs the 0Z Euro, 12Z GFS, and 12Z CMC fwiw. Also, the 12 UKMET gets it to the NE Caribbean. That is one of the more reliable models.
I'm still not yet that worried about a potential deep SE US hit (say MYR south) based on the recent pattern of troughiness, the more reliable model consensus (that excludes the Crazy Uncle CMC), and the longterm climo of few hits in July despite the average recurving latitude being pretty far north and recurving longitude being pretty far west in July as noted by Eric. But I'm still watching.
12z eps still not interested
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Don't rain on others parade!
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