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Tropical Tropical Depression Four

Webberweather53

Webberweather53

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A strong tropical wave axis currently centered over the Ivory Coast and Mali will emerge from the African coast sometime tomorrow and may develop into a tropical cyclone before a robust tropical upper tropospheric trough, spurred in part by the recurvature of the remnants of tropical cyclone Cindy further upstream, will induce increasing upper level westerly wind shear that's liable to rip any storm that develops apart. This is incredible given that there's a suppressed CCKW passing over this portion of the basin atm and it's still June... Although Bret by itself probably served as a harbinger of an active season ahead, development of yet another TC in this portion of the basin so early in the hurricane season likely says this season seriously means business. We've never seen two tropical cyclones form east of the Antilles before July...
Keep in mind, we usually only see a TC in June once every other season, having 3 in the month would be extremely unusual...

Screen Shot 2017-06-27 at 4.10.15 AM.png
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As quickly as it had a chance for TCG, it's been taken away and the NHC expects no development from this over the next 5 days. Passage of a suppressed CCKW likely has a lot to do with that
 
Since this is the same system, Might as well post this here. It's now up to 10/40.
two_atl_5d0.png
 
pcbjr said:
present company excluded?

i trust ...
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I am talking about the hypecasters, or ones who don't know how to handle information. Basically anyone who says that this is coming and it is definite. It is concerning seeing this many runs with a storm. I think it is way too early to get something that strong. Remember, it's the 18Z, it will blow stuff out of proportion.
 
ForsythSnow said:
I am talking about the hypecasters, or ones who don't know how to handle information. Basically anyone who says that this is coming and it is definite. It is concerning seeing this many runs with a storm. I think it is way too early to get something that strong. Remember, it's the 18Z, it will blow stuff out of proportion.
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Trends scare me ... as well they should ... this is not a one run aberration ... by any means ... but it is a good 2 weeks plus out ... we'll see ... but when down here ... well, you get my drift ...

Carry on ... :cool:
 
pcbjr said:
Trends scare me ... as well they should ... this is not a one run aberration ... by any means ... but it is a good 2 weeks plus out ... we'll see ... but when down here ... well, you get my drift ...
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Ensemble support = bad. Only gives it more likelyhood. They diverge more as they get beyond there.
gfs-ememb_lowlocs_atl_31.png
 
Folks - anything, if anything, is a real long, long way off.
But, and with more than a bit of caution - remember that although less than anywhere near foolproof, the GFS nailed Hermine and Matthew real early on last year ...
Worth watching ...
Now to BBQ chicken, corn bread, coleslaw and all the rest ... :cool:
Worth eating and it's not a ways off ... :p


http://www.southernwx.com/community...n-atlantic-tc-development-don.203/#post-32791
 
With Webb expertise on this season, and ealry storms forming, I say anything is possible at this point
 
Unfortunately and fortunately, it is trending stronger. Bad because of obvious reasons, but good because the stronger it is later on, or between the Bahamas and Antilles, the more it will recurve out to sea. High placement will be key also.
 
whatalife said:
Time to see what the Doc has to say.


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I personally am putting far more stock into the GFS and CMC than the Euro so far. The Euro is a bit slow this year, which is weird since the CMC and GFS are supposed to be worse. If the system does form, I will give the long range win to the GFS. If not, the Euro gets it.
 
ForsythSnow said:
I personally am putting far more stock into the GFS and CMC than the Euro so far. The Euro is a bit slow this year, which is weird since the CMC and GFS are supposed to be worse. If the system does form, I will give the long range win to the GFS. If not, the Euro gets it.
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No argument here. Just meant at the time the Doc was now running.


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ForsythSnow said:
I personally am putting far more stock into the GFS and CMC than the Euro so far. The Euro is a bit slow this year, which is weird since the CMC and GFS are supposed to be worse. If the system does form, I will give the long range win to the GFS. If not, the Euro gets it.
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By and large, the GFS did great last year ... FWIW
 
ForsythSnow said:
Unfortunately and fortunately, it is trending stronger. Bad because of obvious reasons, but good because the stronger it is later on, or between the Bahamas and Antilles, the more it will recurve out to sea. High placement will be key also.
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Not always true, it is possible that the stronger system pumps the Ridge to the north and gets farther west
 
Arcc said:
Not always true, it is possible that the stronger system pumps the Ridge to the north and gets farther west
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If you look at the CMC and GFS, the ridge is centered way up Northeast, much closer to Europe than America. In this case, the low would be drawn away from land IF a system pushed it out. In the CMC, no system pushes it out, but on the GFS it does. If the system veers further south early on and scrapes the Caribbean Islands, it would likely head for Florida, but if it is drawn northward more early on, it will be pulled north. Yes, systems don't always get pulled north, but in this case, if it strengthens faster, it will. If it holds off, it won't.

Meanwhile, the system is up to 50% for the next 5 days. I am sure an invest will form by Tuesday.
 
Please take this from an old time Fla boy ...

Based on the last few days ... From the GFS we've seen a strong Matthew type storm, a dissipating low, a whale of fish killer ...

Bottom line - the GFS is picking up on something, and something is really possible based on the GFS's historically ... but a long time to go ... yet very, very well worth watching ...

:confused:
 
pcbjr said:
Please take this from an old time Fla boy ...

Based on the last few days ... From the GFS we've seen a strong Matthew type storm, a dissipating low, a whale of fish killer ...

Bottom line - the GFS is picking up on something, and something is really possible based on the GFS's historically ... but a long time to go ... yet very, very well worth watching ...

:confused:
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Well one thing I would be a bit concerned about is the fact that it certainly will not evolve this way. A slower strengthening system has a better chance of getting far west
 
A weaker disorganized system like the 12z euro has the best chance of getting close to land . Anything remotely strong goes out to see unless the ridge builds in a little faster and it gets forced underneath and west which would be possible but not likely



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