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Tropical Tropical Depression Four

Uh oh, CMC is all aboard the GFS...
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Time to see what the Doc has to say.


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I personally am putting far more stock into the GFS and CMC than the Euro so far. The Euro is a bit slow this year, which is weird since the CMC and GFS are supposed to be worse. If the system does form, I will give the long range win to the GFS. If not, the Euro gets it.
 
I personally am putting far more stock into the GFS and CMC than the Euro so far. The Euro is a bit slow this year, which is weird since the CMC and GFS are supposed to be worse. If the system does form, I will give the long range win to the GFS. If not, the Euro gets it.

No argument here. Just meant at the time the Doc was now running.


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I personally am putting far more stock into the GFS and CMC than the Euro so far. The Euro is a bit slow this year, which is weird since the CMC and GFS are supposed to be worse. If the system does form, I will give the long range win to the GFS. If not, the Euro gets it.
By and large, the GFS did great last year ... FWIW
 
Unfortunately and fortunately, it is trending stronger. Bad because of obvious reasons, but good because the stronger it is later on, or between the Bahamas and Antilles, the more it will recurve out to sea. High placement will be key also.

Not always true, it is possible that the stronger system pumps the Ridge to the north and gets farther west
 
Not always true, it is possible that the stronger system pumps the Ridge to the north and gets farther west
If you look at the CMC and GFS, the ridge is centered way up Northeast, much closer to Europe than America. In this case, the low would be drawn away from land IF a system pushed it out. In the CMC, no system pushes it out, but on the GFS it does. If the system veers further south early on and scrapes the Caribbean Islands, it would likely head for Florida, but if it is drawn northward more early on, it will be pulled north. Yes, systems don't always get pulled north, but in this case, if it strengthens faster, it will. If it holds off, it won't.

Meanwhile, the system is up to 50% for the next 5 days. I am sure an invest will form by Tuesday.
 
Please take this from an old time Fla boy ...

Based on the last few days ... From the GFS we've seen a strong Matthew type storm, a dissipating low, a whale of fish killer ...

Bottom line - the GFS is picking up on something, and something is really possible based on the GFS's historically ... but a long time to go ... yet very, very well worth watching ...

:confused:
 
Please take this from an old time Fla boy ...

Based on the last few days ... From the GFS we've seen a strong Matthew type storm, a dissipating low, a whale of fish killer ...

Bottom line - the GFS is picking up on something, and something is really possible based on the GFS's historically ... but a long time to go ... yet very, very well worth watching ...

:confused:
Well one thing I would be a bit concerned about is the fact that it certainly will not evolve this way. A slower strengthening system has a better chance of getting far west
 
A weaker disorganized system like the 12z euro has the best chance of getting close to land . Anything remotely strong goes out to see unless the ridge builds in a little faster and it gets forced underneath and west which would be possible but not likely



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