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Tropical Tropical Depression Four

Webberweather53

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Desert Southwest ?
A strong tropical wave axis currently centered over the Ivory Coast and Mali will emerge from the African coast sometime tomorrow and may develop into a tropical cyclone before a robust tropical upper tropospheric trough, spurred in part by the recurvature of the remnants of tropical cyclone Cindy further upstream, will induce increasing upper level westerly wind shear that's liable to rip any storm that develops apart. This is incredible given that there's a suppressed CCKW passing over this portion of the basin atm and it's still June... Although Bret by itself probably served as a harbinger of an active season ahead, development of yet another TC in this portion of the basin so early in the hurricane season likely says this season seriously means business. We've never seen two tropical cyclones form east of the Antilles before July...
Keep in mind, we usually only see a TC in June once every other season, having 3 in the month would be extremely unusual...

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As quickly as it had a chance for TCG, it's been taken away and the NHC expects no development from this over the next 5 days. Passage of a suppressed CCKW likely has a lot to do with that
 
Since this is the same system, Might as well post this here. It's now up to 10/40.
two_atl_5d0.png
 
present company excluded?

i trust ...
I am talking about the hypecasters, or ones who don't know how to handle information. Basically anyone who says that this is coming and it is definite. It is concerning seeing this many runs with a storm. I think it is way too early to get something that strong. Remember, it's the 18Z, it will blow stuff out of proportion.
 
I am talking about the hypecasters, or ones who don't know how to handle information. Basically anyone who says that this is coming and it is definite. It is concerning seeing this many runs with a storm. I think it is way too early to get something that strong. Remember, it's the 18Z, it will blow stuff out of proportion.
Trends scare me ... as well they should ... this is not a one run aberration ... by any means ... but it is a good 2 weeks plus out ... we'll see ... but when down here ... well, you get my drift ...

Carry on ... :cool:
 
Trends scare me ... as well they should ... this is not a one run aberration ... by any means ... but it is a good 2 weeks plus out ... we'll see ... but when down here ... well, you get my drift ...
Ensemble support = bad. Only gives it more likelyhood. They diverge more as they get beyond there.
gfs-ememb_lowlocs_atl_31.png
 
Folks - anything, if anything, is a real long, long way off.
But, and with more than a bit of caution - remember that although less than anywhere near foolproof, the GFS nailed Hermine and Matthew real early on last year ...
Worth watching ...
Now to BBQ chicken, corn bread, coleslaw and all the rest ... :cool:
Worth eating and it's not a ways off ... :p


http://www.southernwx.com/community...n-atlantic-tc-development-don.203/#post-32791
 
With Webb expertise on this season, and ealry storms forming, I say anything is possible at this point
 
Unfortunately and fortunately, it is trending stronger. Bad because of obvious reasons, but good because the stronger it is later on, or between the Bahamas and Antilles, the more it will recurve out to sea. High placement will be key also.
 
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