-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Misc This Means WAR
- Thread starter Rain Cold
- Start date
GoDuke
Member
Lmao damn what a witch
Sandbar
Member
If they feared the voters they would (work together). If they respected the voters they would but they don't. They look at the extreme polarity of the voters and how they treat one another and that gives them all the information they need. They will throw a breadcrumb or two out there to make it look like they are working for the people but come the end of January you can kiss that goodbye
That would be shockingly unlikely. Turnout in presidential election years tends to be more evenly split. Neither party can win without independents coming to their side which lends itself to sticky majorities.
This is the largest electoral victory in Congress since the post Watergate Jimmy Carter election in 1976. That majority lasted until 1994. It's heartening to see the Democratic party investing in rural areas again. That will help them quite a bit in addition to a favorable Senate map in 2028.
Downeastnc
Member
This feels like a bit of copium...first all these states are going to redraw the district maps for sure, and the GOP has to lie in that bed they made. TX, NC and several other states that the GOP rigged ( well attempted too) by redrawing the maps pretty much control the entire state from Gov down the state supreme courts and everything in between. They certainly are not going to leave the maps the GOP made in place so even with voter turnout picking back up in 2028 for the GOP its not a guarantee at all and frankly as long as Trump and maga keep doing their thing higher GOP turnout is not even a sure thing. I have seen a few estimates that show that 10-20% of registered Rep voted blue this election....so not only did they not show up but almost a 5th of them that did voted for the dems.
Maybe in some areas but looking at election data from past years in the red states, the democrat number turnout is consistent with the past cycles while GOP is what took the nosedive. For instance in MS using 2024, votes for the Democratic Senator is very close, while the GOP nominee dropped like over 200k.
Sure, some of that could be crossover voting, but that would imply that democratic turn out actually dropped and based on nationwide data, that is very unlikely with factors at play.
Now is this true nationwide? Of course not. I agree with you about TX and NC, but those weren't the states that were being referenced. It doesnt take a rocket scientist to look at MS, SCar, IA and Kansas to see exactly what happened. It just doesnt.
And lets say you are right about Trump and Maga hurting turnout. That could be an issue. But, I'm sure seeing your own guys vote blue lock step is gonna provide a lot of motivation by itself. That is why it is absolutely crucial for the democrats to really play the moderate if they have a chance in these states in the future.
Last edited:
Like I told Downeast, look at the past few election cycles in those red states. A lot of what happened there is the same thing that happened in AL when Doug Jones won the AL senate seat. The media screamed it was the state changing Blue! Us Alabama folks laughed and then ole Dougie got the mess beat out of him a few years later like we said he would.
Last edited:
When you start looking at individual state house seats, there's a lot of nutbag extremists in both parties. Also, for what it's worth, the Guilford County Democratic Party and the NC Democratic Party both withdrew their support after the comments surfaced. More than likely, most voters had no idea who she was and just voted D to punish the Rs.
This is probably true for MS Senate, for example, but it's a six-year term, whereas Jones just had ~2 years left on his term after winning the special election if I remember right? Another corollary was Scott Brown winning the special election for Senate in Massachusetts in 2010, then of course he got beaten by Elizabeth Warren in 2012 (although the election was tighter than one might've expected for the state, though Warren of course is hardly an electoral juggernaut, as history has shown).
Also, some people downplayed Republicans losing both Senate seats in Georgia in 2020/2021. Indeed, they probably win both of those if it weren't for Trump's meddling and discouraging voters to vote in the runoff election because of his voter fraud claims. But six years later and it's been all Democratic Senators for Georgia and with Ossoff's huge win on Tuesday, that doesn't look likely to change going forward. The whole state may indeed be on the verge of turning blue with the win in the gubernatorial races, too; it's certainly still close enough to be called a swing state, but with all the elections there post-2020, it's hard not to say it at least tilts blue at this point?
Sure, Mississippi will almost definitely flip back and I'm sure South Carolina will as that was mostly (lack of) candidate quality, but that may not be true for every state that flipped.
Texas could be a state that follows Georgia's lead, but it's really too early to say, I think. It may snap back next election. I think candidate quality was a major concern there because of how terrible Paxton was, but at the same time unlike in South Carolina it resulted in Dems sweeping every statewide race, which is crazy.
Also, Talarico’s youthful energy, political charisma, and upbeat Christian faith based messaging (he wants to help everyone, not just Dems….opposite of typical MAGA approach) likely helped a lot in getting most independents and even a good # of Republicans despite being pretty progressive. He looks like Presidential material to me.
Texas is much, harder to forecast like GA is, but even looking at Texas numbers, Talarico's numbers still fell well short of Cornyn's numbers a few years back and every single star aligned that should have pushed democrats to the polls. How much of that is Trump meddling(which even is true for Trump) steams southern voters and it wouldn't surprise if some voted Talarico just out of spite. The same thing happened with "Big" Luther Strange in Alabama in 2017.
But, one thing is for certain, the GOP sat this one out. I saw a stat that showed every AL trended blue. The trend was nationwide. So I think that and once again looking through states like Kansas and Iowa as well, those states will highly likely go back red and the media will act shocked and surprised about it for some goofy reason.
I guess what I'm saying is I think a lot more is being assumed by this midterm election than is actually true.
Edit: The truth is that these next few years will be very fun to watch.
Last edited:
- Joined
- Jan 23, 2021
- Messages
- 4,653
- Reaction score
- 15,295
- Location
- Lebanon Township, Durham County NC
Isn’t that the carpetbagger grifter from Michigan who claimed to raise money for Helene victims?
- Joined
- Jan 23, 2021
- Messages
- 4,653
- Reaction score
- 15,295
- Location
- Lebanon Township, Durham County NC
I feel like Talarico heard the same message I did when I was younger and tries to live it. He isn’t using the faith to bludgeon people.
Avalanche
Member
lol, dude said Jesus is non-binary
Yeah and candidates in AL shoot videos of them in church, driving a truck and toting a gun.
I think I'll do the smart thing, knowing he is a politician, and wait and see to cast judgment.
I feel like this is a bigger L an impeachment ever will be. The party will have to abandon trump to move forward. How does he handle this abandonment? Will be truly telling, or will he just line his pockets and exit stage right?
He also ran against Ken Paxton, who might be one of the worst candidates possible. I mean at least Coryn would have had a chance. I guess we'll never know.
Texas runs an evangelical democrat that doesn't hate guns, lol. I don't blame people for being skeptical. I got a good impression of him though so I'm optimistic. (assuming he keeps his nose clean of any scandals)
We NC people have been yapping about how bad Whatley was, but really his biggest liability was no experience and most of the state not knowing who the hell he was. But we all knew who he was running against. I bet if the Dems had to do it over again, they would have saved Coop for 2 years from now against Tedd Budd, but hindsight is 20/20.
GeorgiaGirl
Member
Yeah, a couple of the new senators will probably be out in 2032, but beyond Colom and probably Andrews, it gets tougher to tell with Talarico and the guys elected in the plains.
Do the Trump era Iowa trends hold or revert? And while it's not there yet, Kansas has been slowly purple-ifying.
It'll entirely depend on environment.
And while I’m at it (and my filter is temporarily off), I’m not sure how any of us weren’t shocked by what happened. We expected things to turn, but not to this extent. TX turned blue. SC is electing a friggin democrat that’s not a Dixiecrat, and MS might too.
Coop won NC by 20 friggin pts!?!? I challenge anyone to look up all NC statewide offices (President/Governor/Senate) to tell me the last time that happened. (My guess would be Reagan over Mondale in 84, but does that really count?) They've been predicting this state would turn blue since 2008 cause they got caught off guard by Obama taking it, but we haven't gone blue for Senate or President since.
If you tell me you saw the extent of Tuesday night coming then god bless you. You should quit your job and be a political analyst, cause most of them missed it, and they get paid to do this.
Coop won NC by 20 friggin pts!?!? I challenge anyone to look up all NC statewide offices (President/Governor/Senate) to tell me the last time that happened. (My guess would be Reagan over Mondale in 84, but does that really count?) They've been predicting this state would turn blue since 2008 cause they got caught off guard by Obama taking it, but we haven't gone blue for Senate or President since.
If you tell me you saw the extent of Tuesday night coming then god bless you. You should quit your job and be a political analyst, cause most of them missed it, and they get paid to do this.
Last edited:
This gal just got convicted for stealing a car. Still won lol.
Avalanche
Member
Par for the course
It would be easy for repubs to win it all 2028. But they want listen to me so.
Rubio is the best communicator they have. Period and in a league of his own.
Repubs need hispanic and blue collar working nuclear family/ GOD Family Country alliance like they had in 24 to do it.
Rubio would put that together by grabbing hispanic vote back and repubs should run on flat tax or consumption only/ no payroll tax.working class not baked in the 3 big idealogies that define dem party would hire them right back. Game set Match!
Repubs will never capture white yuppie woke crowd/ socialist/ Islam folks in the Dem Block.they could peel off at a max maybe 5-10% of african american crowd from the dem block.that would tip em over top.
Rubio is the best communicator they have. Period and in a league of his own.
Repubs need hispanic and blue collar working nuclear family/ GOD Family Country alliance like they had in 24 to do it.
Rubio would put that together by grabbing hispanic vote back and repubs should run on flat tax or consumption only/ no payroll tax.working class not baked in the 3 big idealogies that define dem party would hire them right back. Game set Match!
Repubs will never capture white yuppie woke crowd/ socialist/ Islam folks in the Dem Block.they could peel off at a max maybe 5-10% of african american crowd from the dem block.that would tip em over top.
That scenario doesn't fit this. Yes there were bad Republican candidates, but they all weren't bad. The people elected are on the D side are VERY strong on public policy. We haven't seen that really since the mid 1990s. There were large policy proposals made during the Obama years, but that was largely institutional holdover from the late Clinton years.
What Democrats have managed to do here is reactivate what was really a dormant electorate in the south. The reasons why they were activated vary, but the fact they're engaged is what matters. Millennials in particular had very poor turnout after 2012 feeling largely that the Obama presidency didn't live up to its promises and we were busy doing other things. At the same time over the last decade baby boomers have retired and given their last gasps to the GOP. The actuarial tables say they won't be a reliable source of votes for Republicans going forward. That doesn't even begin to touch the growing schism for lack of a better word among the typical Republican voting Christian church. Evangelicals in particular are looking at the same demographic collapse with their churches closing left and right. Mainline protestants who've already gone through severe decline are reasserting themselves into politics on the opposite side of the aisle as the heavily Evangelical influenced Republican party has become unpalatable. In reality it always was a tenuous relationship between the Evangelicals and everyone else and it's finally just blown apart. Presbyterians like Talarico in Texas and Methodists like Hamilton in Kansas are the well known examples and there are quite a few more either in office or newly elected on the Democratic side.
The coalition built by these southern Democrats has the chance to be enduring and to expand. Black voters in particular turned out massively and finally have tangible proof that they can move elections for the younger among them. Millennials now have kids in school and are finally the dominant voting bloc as of this election. Much like the boomers themselves in the 80s they're demanding elected officials present robust policies to deal with issues like the debt, social security, healthcare and so on.
Frankly I wouldn't be surprised in the slightest if we see both chambers controlled by Democrats in 2032. Historically when you have this large of a wave election (let's be real, it was a landslide by definition) combined with a high degree of turnover the majorities tend to stick around for awhile. It was inexcusable for the Democratic party to not compete in the south over the last decade plus. Now that they are and have candidates that appeal to a wide swath it turns 2028 into a fascinating election. Imagine the majority of southern states being up for grabs as swing states and not foregone conclusions. We all benefit when both parties see an election as winnable with quality candidates.
Yep. They don't call Generation X the forgotten generation for nothing.
I would bet my mortgage and every vehicle I own that black voters won't touch the GOP with a ten foot pole. Not after the Republicans made a show of rolling back the VRA and trying to redistrict black voters into irrelevance. And no, Byron Donalds does not refute that. Ask your black neighbors what they think of him and his wife.
Rubio is Cuban and that is his problem along with being tied to Trump, albeit more loosely than others. Half of my wife's family are Mexican. They despise Cuban Americans and that is a common in their demographic.
Trump did not win 2024 based on what you describe. Yes there was a shift but that shift was largely due to a bad Democratic candidate. What actually won him the election were the low/no propensity voters that ONLY turn out when Trump is on the ballot. Remember if only ~120K of them don't show up or voted differently, Kamala Harris would be President. The election was that close in the end across the 7 major swing states. If Republicans want a shot in 2028, they need to find someone who has zero ties to the Trump corruption and gives off a kind and gentle aura. Think George HW Bush type. There are a few governors out there that may fit the bill but they have to get through a primary first.
And the Dem party is not very smart. Trump was a Dem for a long time. Gurantee you and probably to my dislike / if they would just hush with the hate spew he would work negotiate with them on so many things. Dead serious. Yall dont know how to play him. His ego is as big as they come. You dont have to build him up at all. Just be neutral non chalant. Now you can go pour honey on him and you will get a lot out of him i promise you that.
But you pivot and go tick for tack with him/ he will never fold and go bulldog style till the end. He dont fold.
Maybe to much water under bridge now/ but yall go about this wrong way if you really wanted to get some stuff done/ negotiated down on. Just way to much pride in the way all sides to fix stuff.
But you pivot and go tick for tack with him/ he will never fold and go bulldog style till the end. He dont fold.
Maybe to much water under bridge now/ but yall go about this wrong way if you really wanted to get some stuff done/ negotiated down on. Just way to much pride in the way all sides to fix stuff.
It's just the numbers. Gen X overall lean conservative but there aren't enough of them.
5-10%. They are being forgotten little by little by the dem party. Dems keep catering to the islam block and with the right message/ backed up with action/ they can peel off 5-10%.working class is tired of paying taxes and it being used for buttering folks pockets. The Us Legislative branch is why we are 40 trillion + in the hole. Been robbing us all for decades. 0 accountability/ save election firing ever now and then.The fraud has been expossed. Why i preach theres not a dimes difference between senators and congressmen. One has a R beside their name and one a D. Thats it. You replaced Thom Tillis with Roy Cooper. Both the same. Career grab bag politicians/ who talk out of both sides of their mouth. Establishment owned.
You mean raw total numbers or % of voters? If you and I crunch some numbers, would it be more Gen X than millenials that voted in this election?
You know what though? Let's not do that cause I'm focusing on trees in a forest. I suspect the number would be so close it's not that big a deal. And I'm 3 years away from being a millenial anyway. Gen X ain't the only forgotten generation btw. There's was one in between the greatest generation and boomers.
Not sure about that "lean conservative" thing btw. (check the crosstabs as of tues, we're right back to early 2010s
)
This a great wall of text, but here are the last few years of senate votes in Mississippi, the southern democrats didn't expand. From what I saw in Kansas, South Carolina and Iowa, its pretty much the same thing the last several election rounds or so.
Now it may indeed expand as you hope, but right now, thats a pipe dream until it actually does. The other Mississippi senate seat is largely the exact same picture.
Once again the democrats hit their same high water marks on vote totals. The key difference being the GOP not adding the 100-300k to theirs.
I'll be honest and admit it. Had the democrats won these races lets say 570k to 370k, I'd be right there with you that this was a shift, but they didn't. They won them with nearly the exact same totals their votes added up to in the last senate election.
2008
761,111 480,915
2014
378,481 239,439
2018(special)
486,769 420,819
2020
709,511 578.691
2026
464,492 466,775
Last edited: