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Misc This Means WAR

I'm hearing so many conflicted reports about whether Trump will undertake military action that I'm not going to post it
 
I would temper your expectations vis a vis Iran. 2012 was much the same. Maybe things will be different, maybe not.

Looks like maybe not is winning out here from back on 1/9.

Iran has ~1,000,000 security service personnel very loyal to their commanders. Tough nut to crack.
 
Big tanker/jet movement to the Middle East in the last 48 hours. Worth watching.
 
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This is a trade War?

Trump imposes 10% levy on all imports bc the Supreme Court struck down his tariffs. Either way the American consumer loses.

This would go in the stock market thread, but that thread kinda looks like it's dead because @KyloG is still recovering from the Raleigh snub of a decade.

I think this thread has mainly been about the Middle East topic if people aren't 🤐 here.
 
I talked to my longtime Iranian-American (Persian) friend earlier this evening to get his updated thoughts. He said:

- Whereas the Iranian Mullahs seem willing to consider reducing nuclear materials, they are showing no indication so far of being willing to reduce their rocketry or their funding for terrorist groups like Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis.

-Had they been serious about all 3 of these, he feels DT would seriously consider not attacking.

-But because Iran has not to this point, he feels that unless that changes soon that the huge US military presence there now means an imminent attack would almost have to happen.

-A large portion of the Persian Iranians (the large majority of whom hate the Mullahs with a passion) want the US to try to kill the Ayatollah because they figure that would weaken the unity of the Mullahs enough to give many young folks enough confidence to then start a serious revolution.

-Close to 30K uprising Iranians were brutally killed by the Mullah lead govt within only a very short period. I was shocked because that was 10 times the ~3K that I had heard about. But my friend has “inside” info not available to most. He said the rate of killing within such a short period was second only to the Nazis’ rate of killing!

-My friend prefers the US stick to covert action and leave it to the Persians to do their own revolting. But my friend wants the horrible Mullah regime to end however it can occur. He still knows some people there, including family. He asked me to pray for the Iranian people.

-If they decide to attack, he thinks the US would have an advantage only if they complete their objectives within a few weeks or so. If not and it turns into a long drawn-out affair, Iran would take the advantage because Iran is a much tougher opponent than Iraq and most Americans don’t want to spend that kind of money nor sacrifice many lives.
 
These people are very brave knowing the Mullahs already killed 30-40 thousand protestors. If T rump settles for a fake dael with the govt that they will ignore it will be a betrayal of massive proportion.

 
There have been a few explosions at supposed underground IRGC facilities around Iran this week. Iran is not publicly acknowledging those events, so I'm thinking:

1. There are internal groups/factions of the IRGC carrying them out, or:
2. The regime is intimidated by covert CIA/Mossad actions taking out the locations the IRGC planned to hide from more overt attacks, and that is why they keep trying to extend talks as long as possible.
 
I talked to my longtime Iranian-American (Persian) friend earlier this evening to get his updated thoughts. He said:

- Whereas the Iranian Mullahs seem willing to consider reducing nuclear materials, they are showing no indication so far of being willing to reduce their rocketry or their funding for terrorist groups like Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis.

-Had they been serious about all 3 of these, he feels DT would seriously consider not attacking.

-But because Iran has not to this point, he feels that unless that changes soon that the huge US military presence there now means an imminent attack would almost have to happen.

-A large portion of the Persian Iranians (the large majority of whom hate the Mullahs with a passion) want the US to try to kill the Ayatollah because they figure that would weaken the unity of the Mullahs enough to give many young folks enough confidence to then start a serious revolution.

-Close to 30K uprising Iranians were brutally killed by the Mullah lead govt within only a very short period. I was shocked because that was 10 times the ~3K that I had heard about. But my friend has “inside” info not available to most. He said the rate of killing within such a short period was second only to the Nazis’ rate of killing!

-My friend prefers the US stick to covert action and leave it to the Persians to do their own revolting. But my friend wants the horrible Mullah regime to end however it can occur. He still knows some people there, including family. He asked me to pray for the Iranian people.

-If they decide to attack, he thinks the US would have an advantage only if they complete their objectives within a few weeks or so. If not and it turns into a long drawn-out affair, Iran would take the advantage because Iran is a much tougher opponent than Iraq and most Americans don’t want to spend that kind of money nor sacrifice many lives.
Trump isn't effing around with them (There will be no war) and we have capabilities Iran couldn't even dream up. As someone who basically wasted much of his best years fighting in wars started by ---- Cheney and the Cabal those days are over for our military "hopefully". We will take care of the corruption and move on to the next point of contention in Ukraine.......The amount of corruption there rivals any on the world map along with Israel
 
All that military build-up cant be sustained for long. All Iran has to do is drag out negotiations then sign a phony Obama style deal that will be ignored.

Largest forward deployment since OIF in 2003. No ground troops yet. Adding yet more hours to aging C-17s that we don't build anymore and don't have a replacement in the pipeline.

I'm concerned about something I've noticed since early summer 2025. The new political appointee over DoD has forced all branches but particularly the Navy to unsustainable OPTEMPO. This was a problem during the first T administration and got a little better during the B administration but not by much. Now the Ford CSG is looking at over a 12 month deployment. Our sailors are professionals but there's a limit to that. For those that don't know the modern Navy, nearly every vessel is under-crewed. That leads to more work for individuals in port and underway. Foreign port calls are now so few and restricted there's very little in the way of "fun" to be had anymore. The people and machinery are rode hard and put up wet as the saying goes. Just feels like something somewhere is going to break down.

I worry about our ability to sustain anything more than a quick strike, not that we should be doing that anyway. It's not our fight.
 
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