Belle Lechat
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Gainesville only got .1? That can’t be right.
Could the .1" for snow on the NWS hourly chart mean it converts to a higher amount, perhaps 1"?
Gainesville only got .1? That can’t be right.
That is liquid. So using a 10:1 ratio it would be approx. 1” of snow, but that’s assuming the ratio was 10:1. Sleet is also counted towards the measurement and we don’t know how much of the next hourly obs .05” would have counted. It’s likely somewhere between 1-1.5” is probably what they got total but there’s no way to precisely tell without the official climate report.Could the .1" for snow on the NWS hourly chart mean it converts to a higher amount, perhaps 1"?
National Weather Service
forecast.weather.gov
Pretty sure you are on point with that estimate. Looking at my attached pic from someone in Gainesville looks about right with accumulation on the car.That is liquid. So using a 10:1 ratio it would be approx. 1” of snow, but that’s assuming the ratio was 10:1. Sleet is also counted towards the measurement and we don’t know how much of the next hourly obs .05” would have counted. It’s likely somewhere between 1-1.5” is probably what they got total but there’s no way to precisely tell without the official climate report.
Memphis, TN (MEM) - 6.3"
Huntsville, AL (HSV) - 4.7"
Gainesville, GA (GNV) - 1.4"
Greenville, SC (GSP) - 2.1"
Asheville, NC (AVL) - 2.7"
Raleigh, NC (RDU) - 1.5"
I did find this, which suggests 2". Looking at those 5-minute obs provided by @cyclogent it looks like most of the next hours .05" was also snow. So that could theoretically be about 1.5" snow + the sleet they got afterwards. 2.0" does seem on the high end, but it's possible and I'd be fine if that's what we go with (I only forecast 1.1" so wouldn't help me in the competition haha).Pretty sure you are on point with that estimate. Looking at my attached pic from someone in Gainesville looks about right with accumulation on the car.
View attachment 162781
Thank you! It was honestly just a wild guess I’m thrilledWe have a preliminary winner and a full ranking among contestants....just a min
This is correct / these amounts are correct. Although I didn't specifically say we were using the airport codes, the codes were included in the original post, so that was the intent. My only issue is Gainesville. I used Gainesville because that site typically represents North GA pretty well and ATL airport tends to struggle getting snow on the ground. Also, Gainesville has a great historical record with snowfall. But, what I didn't realize was that the historical record is at a generic "Gainesville" site (I'm guessing a CO-OP site that has been maintaining data for a long time), and looking at the data this morning, it doesn't look like snowfall is recorded at the GVL airport in the historical record. I should have checked that before indicating GVL as the site we were using. My mistake there (I made another mistake in the original post of indicating GNV as the Gainesville airport code when it is GVL - that was discussed in the thread). But anyway, that generic "Gainesville" site reported 2.0 (ATL reported 2.1, haha, could have used it). I used https://xmacis.rcc-acis.org/ to get the totals. You can see the generic "GAINESVILLE" (all caps) total using that site (same as what 1300m reported above). We will use the 2.0 for Gainesville unless someone can report an official number from the Gainesville airport.KAVL- 1.8
GSP- .7
Memphis airport -7.5
Huntsville - 4.3
RDU-.7
Link below by clicking on "climate" for KAVL, GSP just to show the source. The others are also official NWS reports. Gainesville is not reporting. RDU is prior to midnight, so I don't know if more fell since then.
I would like to say a few things. First, @griteater this was an awesome idea and I really enjoyed it! I really hope we can keep this going. As a state employed meteorologist, I don't think I am allowed to accept these winnings as it could be perceived as a conflict of interest / gift. With that in mind, I will leave it up to the Board of DirectorsThis is correct / these amounts are correct. Although I didn't specifically say we were using the airport codes, the codes were included in the original post, so that was the intent. My only issue is Gainesville. I used Gainesville because that site typically represents North GA pretty well and ATL airport tends to struggle getting snow on the ground. Also, Gainesville has a great historical record with snowfall. But, what I didn't realize was that the historical record is at a generic "Gainesville" site (I'm guessing a CO-OP site that has been maintaining data for a long time), and looking at the data this morning, it doesn't look like snowfall is recorded at the GVL airport in the historical record. I should have checked that before indicating GVL as the site we were using. My mistake there (I made another mistake in the original post of indicating GNV as the Gainesville airport code when it is GVL - that was discussed in the thread). But anyway, that generic "Gainesville" site reported 2.0 (ATL reported 2.1, haha, could have used it). I used https://xmacis.rcc-acis.org/ to get the totals. You can see the generic "GAINESVILLE" (all caps) total using that site (same as what 1300m reported above). We will use the 2.0 for Gainesville unless someone can report an official number from the Gainesville airport.
Only remaining issue is whether Asheville or Raleigh added to their totals after midnight, but here are the preliminary numbers (1300m! yo). I suppose it's possible that some of these numbers could have slight adjustments after NWS review, but unlikely I think.
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I see 1300m thinks that's funny --shouldn't you be cleaning up the wreckage of your hubris-laden but, as it turned out, complete trainwreck of a forecast?
What is your discordcongratulations let’s not get too carried away. if you want we can talk in discord and I’ll explain how I forecast
Here are all forecasts with a few stats at the bottom. The average forecast was most accurate at Huntsville, least accurate at Greenville and Asheville
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Very cool spreadsheet gritHere are all forecasts with a few stats at the bottom. The average forecast was most accurate at Huntsville, least accurate at Greenville and Asheville
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Yep. Next time, going $1 everywhere east of the Apps.@Rain Cold you should have done the $1 price is right bid. Hindsight and such
Here are all forecasts with a few stats at the bottom. The average forecast was most accurate at Huntsville, least accurate at Greenville and Asheville
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Rdu 8.9 for the next oneWith no additions or adjustments made at the contest sites to the snow & sleet totals, @1300m has been confirmed as the contest winner. Congratulations to @1300m on the forecast performance and win.
For reasons mentioned in the thread, he is opting to not accept the $100 payout.
I don't want to hold on to that money for long, but he and I have decided to hold those funds to see if anything pops next week that is worthy of a contest as deemed by the contest board of directors. If not, the funds will be donated to southernwx.com. @NW GA Fan - let us know if you have any issues with this plan based on your $50 donation to the contest.
Thank you all!
yeah y’all might wanna go ahead and pin this threadRdu 8.9 for the next one
You’re gonna have that money till April, 2029!With no additions or adjustments made at the contest sites to the snow & sleet totals, @1300m has been confirmed as the contest winner. Congratulations to @1300m on the forecast performance and win.
For reasons mentioned in the thread, he is opting to not accept the $100 payout.
I don't want to hold on to that money for long, but he and I have decided to hold those funds to see if anything pops next week that is worthy of a contest as deemed by the contest board of directors. If not, the funds will be donated to southernwx.com. @NW GA Fan - let us know if you have any issues with this plan based on your $50 donation to the contest.
Thank you all!
The sheet is posted as an image.I can't see the spreadsheet, can the format be changed so I can see it? Thanks @griteater
I know, I can't see the image...only letters in the link (name of the image).The sheet is posted as an image.
Thank you!!
That's strange and may need to be investigated on my end. It should have worked, I just formatted my computer and had no cache, so the image loaded fine for a new browser.
Yeah, I always have trouble seeing images from just a select few. It's def. on my end. Thanks, @Shawn .Never mind, it seems your device didn't want to load from imgur for some reason. The SWX links are fine.