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Pattern The Great December Dump

LOL, finally found the pic to go with this thread. Also congrats to the SE ridge/580+dm/heat lovers...again.

santa dump.png


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tennessee storm said:
Daylight already 3 minutes longer than it was first of December ... spring can’t be far behind ... can it ? Lol
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When you say daylight you are talking about afternoon daylight ? Because overall daylight has decreased since early December. Our daylight will reach its annual minimum in 2.5 days.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Not sure how/when or what the progression is crawling out of this big +AO being modeled. How long does it take to recover from something like this? Such bad timing
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terrific.

cyclogent said:
LOL, finally found the pic to go with this thread. Also congrats to the SE ridge/580+dm/heat lovers...again.

View attachment 28556


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why do the unfavorable/unlikely for snow predictions pan out more than the opposite. Not saying that will for sure happen this time, but seems like that’s always the case. Winter in the south sux
 
Remember when we were supposed to have a torch first week of December and cold last half?

Instead we are at near normal for the first week and torching the last half....no matter the number of analogs and composites you have, nature finds a way to do what she wants.


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Jon said:
Remember when we were supposed to have a torch first week of December and cold last half?

Instead we are at near normal for the first week and torching the last half....no matter the number of analogs and composites you have, nature finds a way to do what she wants.


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Dang...that was a sobering post. And yeah, I agree with you.
 
The irritating part is looking at the Euro/EPS and I bet we get another nice southern stream system close to the end of the year, but that blasted Canada heat dome.
 
Jon said:
Remember when we were supposed to have a torch first week of December and cold last half?

Instead we are at near normal for the first week and torching the last half....no matter the number of analogs and composites you have, nature finds a way to do what she wants.


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Hmm definitely don't remember at least myself supporting this idea. My general call for us locally in NC (as noted on twitter) was for ~+3F ish this month and that the pattern change was probably coming around early January & not in Dec, I basically laid out this idea in the middle of November. It's certainly possible though that competing circulation signals emerge in the coming week or two and the CCKW over the central Pacific attenuates while a new CCKW over the East Indian Ocean & Maritime Continent takes over. We have to keep a close eye on this because it has the potential to spoil our chances for cold/snow in the first week or so of January, which will likely be predominated by a SER at the onset. This also could meansthe pattern change I've been alluding to in early january to occur ~January 5-10 ish has a chance to get pushed back

Nov 18:
"Timing wise if this SSWE being forecast in the longer term is successful, we'd be generally falling right in line w/ 1965-66's evolution timing-wise anyways. Looks like the pattern in that particular winter flipped sometime in early January & then the bottom fell out in mid-late January in eastern North America. Anticipating a pattern change somewhere in this timeframe seems to fit w/ tropical subseasonal forcing evolution, which I anticipate will return to the "favorable" phases (central Pacific & western hemisphere) again around early January..."
http://southernwx.com/community/threads/nippy-november.639/page-72#post-211254

As for the latter part:
"...we'll see a reinforcement of the tropospheric precursor pattern in the meantime that should deliver the final blow to the polar vortex if it already hasn't happened."

There's a legitimate chance this also comes to fruition over the coming weeks although my confidence isn't exactly high in this happening




I've been far from perfect this winter in the long-range & the break I thought we would see later this month hasn't been anywhere near as bad as I thought it could be.
 
Storm5 said:
If you like cutters and warm rain the 12z gfs is for you


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Thankfully Costco will let me return the sled I purchased in 2014.

I’m not sure these models have shown much of anything to hang our hats on for days. Not even a board wide fantasy snow.


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Webberweather53 said:
Hmm definitely don't remember at least myself supporting this idea. My general call for us locally in NC (as noted on twitter) was for ~+3F ish this month and that the pattern change was probably coming around early January & not in Dec, I basically laid out this idea in the middle of November. It's certainly possible though that competing circulation signals emerge in the coming week or two and the CCKW over the central Pacific attenuates while a new CCKW over the East Indian Ocean & Maritime Continent takes over. We have to keep a close eye on this because it has the potential to spoil our chances for cold/snow in the first week or so of January, which will likely be predominated by a SER at the onset. This also could meansthe pattern change I've been alluding to in early january to occur ~January 5-10 ish has a chance to get pushed back

Nov 18:
"Timing wise if this SSWE being forecast in the longer term is successful, we'd be generally falling right in line w/ 1965-66's evolution timing-wise anyways. Looks like the pattern in that particular winter flipped sometime in early January & then the bottom fell out in mid-late January in eastern North America. Anticipating a pattern change somewhere in this timeframe seems to fit w/ tropical subseasonal forcing evolution, which I anticipate will return to the "favorable" phases (central Pacific & western hemisphere) again around early January..."
http://southernwx.com/community/threads/nippy-november.639/page-72#post-211254

As for the latter part:
"...we'll see a reinforcement of the tropospheric precursor pattern in the meantime that should deliver the final blow to the polar vortex if it already hasn't happened."

There's a legitimate chance this also comes to fruition over the coming weeks although my confidence isn't exactly high in this happening




I've been far from perfect this winter in the long-range & the break I thought we would see later this month hasn't been anywhere near as bad as I thought it could be.
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Webber, if that CCKW don't pan out and it takes over in the maritime continent, like your alluding to, its probably game set and match for winter because it will take a long time to get out of those if we ever do.
 
Mr. Golf said:
Webber, if that CCKW don't pan out and it takes over in the maritime continent, like your alluding to, its probably game set and match for winter because it will take a long time to get out of those if we ever do.
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CCKWs circumnavigate the global tropics in span of 2-3 weeks, while the MJO takes 2-3 months, this would be far from game, set, match for winter.
 
GaWx said:
We already know it has a +PNA/-EPO bias. So, what you’re showing happens quite often with the GEFS. Nothing new here and it says practically nothing about how January will be.
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+AO bias too? dang
 
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