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Pattern Sweatember

Looks like a pretty significant heat wave Friday-Sunday. Anytime there’s multiple days of 90+ in September I consider it a heat wave. Definitely warmer than normal even though the NWS in Peachtree City says next weekend we will have a “cool” airmass. 90 is not cool by any definition.
 
So much for the big cool down that was coming. From WRAL's Chris Michaels.

I'm monitoring a trend in the forecast data regarding next weekend.

Yesterday and the day prior, data were all excited about a strong cold front moving through. In recent runs, it doesn't show the cold front swinging through. Rather, it shows all the upper-level wind focused around the Great Lakes/Upper Midwest, keeping the cold front from us.

IF this comes to fruition, it might actually get a little toasty Friday and Saturday and a BIG cool-down wouldn't materialize.

We'll keep an eye on it.
 
Carolina Fever said:
So much for the big cool down that was coming. From WRAL's Chris Michaels.

I'm monitoring a trend in the forecast data regarding next weekend.

Yesterday and the day prior, data were all excited about a strong cold front moving through. In recent runs, it doesn't show the cold front swinging through. Rather, it shows all the upper-level wind focused around the Great Lakes/Upper Midwest, keeping the cold front from us.

IF this comes to fruition, it might actually get a little toasty Friday and Saturday and a BIG cool-down wouldn't materialize.

We'll keep an eye on it.
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12z GFS and euro does show it getting hot (especially for Saturday). But the front (on both models) still goes through later on Sunday. Just delayed....
 
Yeah, looks like a heat wave next weekend. I’m not sure how the models are that bad within that range. Pretty embarrassing though.
 
J.C. said:
Yeah, looks like a heat wave next weekend. I’m not sure how the models are that bad within that range. Pretty embarrassing though.
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Mid 90s in parts of Georgia next weekend. A couple days ago it was supposed to be unusually cold next weekend. Glenn Burns was going crazy on Facebook talking about how cold it was gonna be !
 
Drizzle Snizzle said:
Mid 90s in parts of Georgia next weekend. A couple days ago it was supposed to be unusually cold next weekend. Glenn Burns was going crazy on Facebook talking about how cold it was gonna be !
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The GFS in typical hot bias form has highs of 98-100 down here next weekend. The other models are still hot with low to mid 90s, but they’re much more believable.
 
GaWx said:
The GFS in typical hot bias form has highs of 98-100 down here next weekend. The other models are still hot with low to mid 90s, but they’re much more believable.
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Yeah I think the GFS gets believed a lot here too on the other spectrum I believe that's where the cold hype came from

And yeah whenever it showed really hot temps it was the same deal even though it never happened for us
 
It seems like that vaunted front does push through, but it's later and thanks to it being later, Thurs-Sun could be quite warm. (it's crazy how badly off I think both major models were though, because it definitely looked as if mid 80s would be the top end until a day or so ago)

If the GFS is to be believed though, I may have ended up talking too much trash about how the cool pattern is going to stay, because while it does have a few cooler days upcoming, it suggests a pretty warm first half for Sept now in the interior SE (Euro disagrees though, I'd be happy with the Euro).
 
Saturday looks like it'll be our hottest day with many of us hitting 92-94, then it cools off again. Still fairly dry though. Then the heat comes right back with a large closed 591 ridge over almost all of the southeast, this time with higher dp's.

Edit: the latest frame has it at 594 centered on Tenn. If this is right, I'm afraid we may get close to what we had in late July.
 
I just saw this showing summer 2025 precip: note how wet Brent and Mack were as well as much if TX. Also, significant parts of GA/SC/NC were quite wet. I can vouch for the very wet SAV area, which appears to at least be within the top 10 in much of the area. I see green (wettest of last 131 summers) ~50 miles W of GeorgiaGirl and between RDU and GSO, where Chantal hit so hard:

IMG_4494.jpeg
 
GaWx said:
I just saw this showing summer 2025 precip: note how wet Brent and Mack were as well as much if TX. Also, significant parts of GA/SC/NC were quite wet. I can vouch for the very wet SAV area, which appears to at least be within the top 10 in much of the area. I see green (wettest of last 131 summers) ~50 miles W of GeorgiaGirl and between RDU and GSO, where Chantal hit so hard:

View attachment 174669
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Yeah we're still on pace for one of the wettest years on record here

And tbh usually the fall is very wet here especially if we get moisture from the Pacific storms
 
Idk if it'll continue for the 0z, but the split beyond the next 7-10 days involving GFS/Euro temps continued to be wild for the 12z. One continues to say welcome back summer, and the other continues fall (which at this point, it's fairly clearly causing fall related plants to bloom here).

I'm going to have to sadly lean more towards the GFS, though it's mostly vibes, and I do think it's probably too warm. May end up averaging 90ish for the interior SE for the first half of Sept.
 
@ 6am coldest airport central NC is at Sanford. Can they hit 49 before the ole Orange Ball rises in the sky?

Sanford, Sanford-Lee County Regional Airport (KTTA)​

Lat: 35.58°NLon: 79.1°WElev: 246ft.
nfg.png

Fog/Mist
50°F
10°C
Humidity100%
Wind SpeedCalm
Barometer30.12 in
Dewpoint50°F (10°C)
Visibility1.75 mi
Last update2 Sep 6:15 am EDT
 
Friday looks to be the warmest, Perhaps Saturday if the clouds cant get involved to offset some solar influence. Should transition back late Sun/ into Monday. Per Euro. As usual GFS is couple degrees warmer.
Yesterday was -9.5 BN for Sept 1 @ GSO. Would have still been BN for even OCTOBER 1st for perspective purposes. Winning

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1756809939132.png
 
SD said:
If TD12 recurves thats our best chance of rain in weeks and that's kind of sad
Looks like the heatwave will be brief but this potential strong positive heights across Canada pattern isn't that exciting.
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It's been about two weeks since we have had any significant rainfall and it looks like something tropical is our best bet for the foreseeable future. The below normal temperatures have been a blessing, if we had normal or above normal temperatures to deal with, the heat stress on the plant life from this dry spell would be worse.
 
That big heatwave on the long range GFS has been gone for 2 runs now and hopefully it stays gone. The last 2 runs have also been wetter.
 
The GFS may well have just been set up incorrectly pattern wise, now it doesn't really have anything overly exciting temp wise seemingly past this weekend.

Still warmer though then the Euro, I believe.
 
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