LickWx
Member
-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Pattern Swamptember 2021
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
LickWx
Member
Pretty much everything gives us 33 and rain.
Good panthers season = good winter
Brent
Member
I ended up wearing shorts but I did find some this morning before I left ?
It's fairly warm in the sun now although the breeze at times is a whoa
Hrrr still holding up a decent severe wx threat, given the small but curved Hodographs a isolated tornado or 2 is possible, with damaging winds the main threat 
Wonder if we can crank out enough instability with this look with cyclonic/NW flow aloft, might be to late tho 
That's a strong look too get wedged tbh
We try… 
Yeah, but look at Alaska and the NW Yukon… that’s really where you want to watch for cold air to build up in the early fall and they have had a very cool summer.
Ive know ive already mentioned that HRRR run earlier ^ but there’s a time between 22z-01z where the low level jet picks up and 0-6km shear picks up in response to the digging -tilt trough, low level shear is still somewhat weak but there’s a decent overlap in 1500-2000 joules of SBcape around I-77 east and a increasing low level jet/increasing jet streak aloft at the right exit, wouldn’t shock me if there’s a few tornado warnings on those storms, especially if there’s more sun prior to these storms and Low level lapse rates aren’t to meager 
Last edited:
tennessee storm
Member
Yeah but most time Alaska is cold we usually torch also …. Be honest
LickWx
Member
Don’t we want ridging in that region though ?
That is the case during the winter typically, but right now you want to see cold air building in that region and then it will begin spreading further east into Canada as the fall progresses. That region of Alaska and NW Yukon has been extremely warm during the summer and early fall for the last few years and his really slowed the cold air buildup across Canada. The last 3 times those regions have had as cool a summer and early fall as this year was 2014, 2015, and 2017… all 3 of which ended up as at least decent winters for the southeast. Now the other part is getting the jet to transfer that cold south and east… which we should have periods of in the first half of the winter based on Niña climo
Look at the post I just put up before I saw your comment. The troughs being there right now help to build cold air.
JHS
Member
GSP agrees with this. They mention a window close to sunset in their far eastern zones for stronger storms. Basically from Chester and Statesville and east.
Overachieving by several degrees this afternoon. Currently 87*F at DFW.
Ward Cleaver
Member
I’m at 0.67” of rain today with more on the way. Most rain I’ve had since August 26. Only 1.39” for the entire month of September.
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
1.46 in the bucket since midnight, thankfully not near as much as might have thought based on models yesterday. Currently heavy mist/fog and 62 degrees. Fall has arrived.