Brent
Member
At this rate they may have to change the start of hurricane from June 1st to May 1st.
The EPAC starts May 15th so i could see it there
At this rate they may have to change the start of hurricane from June 1st to May 1st.
704
WTNT31 KNHC 211434
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
Subtropical Depression Andrea Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012019
1100 AM AST Tue May 21 2019
...ANDREA WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION...
...EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE SOON...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.8N 69.2W
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM WSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in
Bermuda should monitor the progress of this system.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Subtropical Depression
Andrea was located near latitude 30.8 North, longitude 69.2 West.
The depression is moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h), and
a turn toward the northeast and east is expected tonight.
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h)
with higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast, and Andrea is
expected to degenerate into a remnant low by this evening.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.
$$
Forecaster Pasch
000
WTNT41 KNHC 211435
TCDAT1
Subtropical Depression Andrea Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012019
1100 AM AST Tue May 21 2019
As expected, Andrea is likely to be a short-lived event. The
cyclone's cloud pattern has continued to degrade, and Andrea is now
essentially devoid of deep convection. In fact, at first glance,
the upper-level low to the southwest of the center appears to be
the most dominant feature. Based on the lack of convection and a
buoy observation not far to the north of Andrea, the system is
being downgraded to a subtropical depression. Since the cyclone is
expected to remain under the influence of the upper low and in and
environment of dry mid-level air for the next day or so, Andrea is
likely to degenerate into a remnant low pressure area in a day or
less.
The system has moved a little more to the north than previously
estimated and the initial motion is 360/7. Upper-level westerlies
should cause the cyclone to turn eastward in 12-24 hours until
dissipation. The official track forecast is similar to but a
little slower than the dynamical model consensus, TVCN.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 21/1500Z 30.8N 69.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 22/0000Z 31.5N 67.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 22/1200Z 31.7N 66.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Pasch