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Tropical Subtropical Storm Andrea

Snowfan

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The first invest of the season has officially been designated.
An area of low pressure is expected to form by Monday several
hundred miles southwest of Bermuda. This system could develop into a
short-lived tropical or subtropical cyclone late Monday or Tuesday
while moving northward or northeastward. Environmental conditions
are expected to become unfavorable for further development by
Wednesday. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook will be issued
by 2 PM EDT today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
 

Snowfan

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The chances have increased to 40/40. Recon is tentatively scheduled to investigate tommorow afternoon.
000
ABNT20 KNHC 191722
TWOAT

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
125 PM EDT Sun May 19 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

An area of low pressure is expected to form by Monday several
hundred miles southwest of Bermuda. This system could develop into a
short-lived subtropical or tropical cyclone late Monday or Tuesday
while moving northward or northeastward. Environmental conditions
are expected to become unfavorable for further development by
Wednesday. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled
to investigate the disturbance Monday afternoon, if necessary.
Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of this system. The
next Special Tropical Weather Outlook will be issued by 8 PM EDT
this evening.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart
 

BufordWX

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50/50 odds now.
Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
730 PM EDT Sun May 19 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

An area of low pressure is expected to form several hundred miles
southwest of Bermuda by Monday. This system could develop into a
short-lived subtropical or tropical cyclone late tomorrow or
Tuesday while moving northward or northeastward. By Wednesday,
however, conditions are forecast to become unfavorable for further
development, and the system should become rapidly absorbed by a
cold front. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is
scheduled to investigate the disturbance Monday afternoon, if
necessary. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of this
system. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook will be issued by
Monday 2 AM EDT.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
 

Brent

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Satellite-derived wind data indicate that a trough of low pressure
has developed within a large area of cloudiness and disorganized
showers several hundred miles to the southwest of Bermuda. A low
pressure system is expected to form within this area of disturbed
weather later today, and possibly develop into a short-lived
subtropical or tropical cyclone by tonight or Tuesday while moving
northward or northeastward. By Wednesday, however, conditions are
forecast to become unfavorable for further development, and the
system should become rapidly absorbed by a cold front. An Air Force
Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the
disturbance this afternoon, if necessary. Interests in Bermuda
should monitor the progress of this system. The next Special
Tropical Weather Outlook will be issued by 8 AM EDT today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
 

Snowfan

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000
ABNT20 KNHC 201127
TWOAT

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
730 AM EDT Mon May 20 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Showers and thunderstorms have increased overnight and this morning
in association with a trough of low pressure located about midway
between the Bahamas and Bermuda. A low pressure system is expected
to form within this area of disturbed weather later today, and this
system could become a short-lived subtropical or tropical cyclone by
tonight or Tuesday while it moves northward or northeastward. By
Wednesday, however, conditions are forecast to become unfavorable
for further development, and the system should be absorbed by a cold
front. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to
investigate the disturbance this afternoon, if necessary. Interests
in Bermuda should monitor the progress of this system. The next
Special Tropical Weather Outlook will be issued by 2 PM EDT today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown
 

BirdManDoomW

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NHC is watching a tropical wave that may affect Bermuda or produce wave and rip currents for NC. 60% chance now. Recon may go out today.
 

Snowfan

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The chances are now at 70/70. Now a code red.
453
ABNT20 KNHC 201730
TWOAT

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
130 PM EDT Mon May 20 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located several hundred miles southwest of Bermuda are
showing signs of organization. Although recent satellite wind data
suggest that the system currently lacks a well-defined center of
circulation, environmental conditions are expected to be conducive
for the formation of a short-lived subtropical or tropical cyclone
later today or tonight. Conditions are forecast to become
unfavorable for further development by late Tuesday, and the
disturbance is expected to merge with a cold front on Wednesday.
An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is currently en route
to investigate the disturbance. Interests in Bermuda should
monitor the progress of this system. The next Special Tropical
Weather Outlook will be issued by 8 PM EDT today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown
 

Typo

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I did enjoy the line I highlighted from this update from the South Carolina Climate office on this little disturbance "Excitable boys at NHC" :D Excitable boys.jpg .
 

ncskywarn

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We have Andrea


000
ABNT20 KNHC 202149
TWOAT

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
550 PM EDT Mon May 20 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate that
the low pressure system located several hundred miles southwest of
Bermuda has developed a well-defined center with maximum sustained
winds of about 40 mph. A special advisory will be issued on
Subtropical Storm Andrea by 6:30 PM EDT or 2230 UTC.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky/Cangialosi
 

Snowfan

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000
WTNT31 KNHC 202228
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Andrea Special Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012019
630 PM AST Mon May 20 2019

...SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA FORMS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 630 PM AST...2230 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.8N 68.7W
ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM SW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in
Bermuda should monitor the progress of this system.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 630 PM AST (2230 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Andrea was
located near latitude 28.8 North, longitude 68.7 West. The storm is
moving toward the north near 14 mph (22 km/h). A decrease in
forward speed and a turn to the northeast is expected on Tuesday,
followed by an eastward motion by Tuesday night. On the forecast
track, the center of Andrea is expected to remain southwest or
south of Bermuda during the next day or two.

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter plane indicate that
the maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Slight strengthening is possible overnight. Weakening should
begin late Tuesday, and Andrea is expected to dissipate on
Wednesday.

Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) northeast of
the center.

The Air Force Hurricane Hunters measured a minimum central pressure
of 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
 

Snowfan

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000
WTNT31 KNHC 210231
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Andrea Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012019
1100 PM AST Mon May 20 2019

...SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA MOVING NORTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.5N 68.7W
ABOUT 300 MI...485 KM SW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in
Bermuda should monitor the progress of this system.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Andrea
was located near latitude 29.5 North, longitude 68.7 West. The
storm is moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h). A decrease
in forward speed and a turn to the northeast is expected on Tuesday,
followed by an eastward motion by Tuesday night. On the forecast
track, the center of Andrea is expected to remain southwest or
south of Bermuda during the next day or two.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slight strengthening is possible overnight. Weakening should begin
late Tuesday, and Andrea is expected to dissipate on Wednesday.

Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) northeast of
the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
000
WTNT41 KNHC 210231
TCDAT1

Subtropical Storm Andrea Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012019
1100 PM AST Mon May 20 2019

There has not been much change in association with Andrea since the
previous advisory a few hours ago. Satellite images show a
persistent area of deep convection that is mainly confined to the
north of the center, with less organized convection wrapping around
to the southeastern quadrant. A recent partial ASCAT pass showed
maximum winds of 35 kt, which is similar to what the aircraft found
earlier this evening and in about the same location. Therefore, the
initial intensity is held at 35 kt. This estimate is also in
agreement with the latest satellite intensity consensus from CIMSS
at the University of Wisconsin.

Andrea is located a few hundred miles from a mid- to upper-level
low, and its interaction with this feature is part of the reason why
the cyclone is considered subtropical. This upper low and a ridge
to the east is causing Andrea to move northward at about 10 kt. The
models are in good agreement that Andrea should slow down and turn
northeastward on Tuesday, and then eastward Tuesday night and
Wednesday when it becomes embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies.
The NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous one and lies
near the middle of the model guidance.

Andrea could strengthen slightly overnight while it remains in a
relatively moist and unstable atmosphere. However, after that time,
a gradual weakening trend is predicted due to less favorable
environmental conditions. All of the reliable models agree that
Andrea will merge with, or be absorbed by, a cold front on
Wednesday. This intensity forecast is in best agreement with the
GFS model.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0300Z 29.5N 68.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 21/1200Z 30.4N 68.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 22/0000Z 31.1N 67.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 22/1200Z 31.3N 65.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
 

Snowfan

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Andrea has weakened to a Subtropical Depression.
704
WTNT31 KNHC 211434
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Subtropical Depression Andrea Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012019
1100 AM AST Tue May 21 2019

...ANDREA WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION...
...EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE SOON...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.8N 69.2W
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM WSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in
Bermuda should monitor the progress of this system.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Subtropical Depression
Andrea was located near latitude 30.8 North, longitude 69.2 West.
The depression is moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h), and
a turn toward the northeast and east is expected tonight.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h)
with higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast, and Andrea is
expected to degenerate into a remnant low by this evening.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch
000
WTNT41 KNHC 211435
TCDAT1

Subtropical Depression Andrea Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012019
1100 AM AST Tue May 21 2019

As expected, Andrea is likely to be a short-lived event. The
cyclone's cloud pattern has continued to degrade, and Andrea is now
essentially devoid of deep convection. In fact, at first glance,
the upper-level low to the southwest of the center appears to be
the most dominant feature. Based on the lack of convection and a
buoy observation not far to the north of Andrea, the system is
being downgraded to a subtropical depression. Since the cyclone is
expected to remain under the influence of the upper low and in and
environment of dry mid-level air for the next day or so, Andrea is
likely to degenerate into a remnant low pressure area in a day or
less.

The system has moved a little more to the north than previously
estimated and the initial motion is 360/7. Upper-level westerlies
should cause the cyclone to turn eastward in 12-24 hours until
dissipation. The official track forecast is similar to but a
little slower than the dynamical model consensus, TVCN.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/1500Z 30.8N 69.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 22/0000Z 31.5N 67.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 22/1200Z 31.7N 66.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch
 
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