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Misc Stock Market

Retail has been trained by the greatest bull market in the history of our stock market since 2009 to buy up every dip. Eventually, retail is going to get bitten in the Tom Brady Sucks. ?
“We” have no concept of valuation or fundamentals and just momo everything and anything. Not sure how long this recklessness can last. Money has been practically free for the past couple of years thanks to the Fed.
 
The obvious answer to inflation is what i hear Biden is considering. Price controls. Make the price of a gallon og reg unleaded $1.80. Obviously we should make prices low for everything, not just gas, so people can prosper.
Lol that always ends well.
 
It is dumbfounding to be sitting on the greatest natural resources on earth (USA) and handcuff ourselves as if we live on a deserted island of concrete.

If you’re referring to US NG and oil production, it is increasing:

1. US NG production rose to a record annual number of 93.6 bcf/day in 2021 and hit a record monthly level of 97.6 in December of 2021 just before the cold January of 2022 caused a moderate drop due largely to freeze-offs mainly in the Permian basin and this has continued through Feb. Even so, it was still at 95.5 in January of 2022, which is a record high for January and is significantly higher than the 92.8 of Jan of 2021. It is projected to rise back starting this month and then reach a record smashing year in 2022 at 96.1 (old record 93.6 in 2021) and then even higher at 2023 at 98.0:

“We estimate dry U.S. natural gas production averaged 95.5 Bcf/d in the United States in January, down 2.1 Bcf/d from December 2021. Production in January was lower due, in some part, to freezing temperatures in certain production regions. We forecast natural gas production to average 95.6 Bcf/d in February and 96.1 Bcf/d for all of 2022, driven by natural gas and crude oil price levels that we expect will be sufficient to support enough drilling to sustain production growth. We expect production to rise to an average of 98.0 Bcf/d in 2023.”




2. . US crude oil production averaged over the last 4 weeks is at 11.6 mbpd, which is 1.2 mbpd higher vs one year ago, when it averaged only 10.375 mbpd for the 4 weeks ending 2/26/21.

Also,

“U.S. crude oil production reached almost 11.8 million b/d in November 2021 (the most recent monthly historical data point), the most in any month since April 2020. We forecast that production will rise to an average of 12.0 million b/d in 2022 and 12.6 million b/d in 2023, which would be record-high production on an annual-average basis. The previous annual average record of 12.3 million b/d was set in 2019.”
 
Crypto is on the verge of a big dumperooski

I sold 8k worth of eth last week on the pop . I need the market to be green tomorrow so I can dump my Amazon and tesla spreads then I'm loading to the downside . The war isn't gonna stop even if they agreed to a peace treaty it won't last and we all know inflation numbers are gonna be crazy high when they are released this week . Fed meeting in two weeks with a hike coming . More blood in the market for sure . IF NATO someone gets pulled into the war the market will dump


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Feels like we've had a lot selling to start 2022....S&P only down 10%. So many macro factors going against the market, seems like it should be a lot worse.

Screen Shot 2022-03-06 at 5.42.29 PM.png
 
If you’re referring to US NG and oil production, it is increasing:

1. US NG production rose to a record annual number of 93.6 bcf/day in 2021 and hit a record monthly level of 97.6 in December of 2021 just before the cold January of 2022 caused a moderate drop due largely to freeze-offs mainly in the Permian basin and this has continued through Feb. Even so, it was still at 95.5 in January of 2022, which is a record high for January and is significantly higher than the 92.8 of Jan of 2021. It is projected to rise back starting this month and then reach a record smashing year in 2022 at 96.1 (old record 93.6 in 2021) and then even higher at 2023 at 98.0:

“We estimate dry U.S. natural gas production averaged 95.5 Bcf/d in the United States in January, down 2.1 Bcf/d from December 2021. Production in January was lower due, in some part, to freezing temperatures in certain production regions. We forecast natural gas production to average 95.6 Bcf/d in February and 96.1 Bcf/d for all of 2022, driven by natural gas and crude oil price levels that we expect will be sufficient to support enough drilling to sustain production growth. We expect production to rise to an average of 98.0 Bcf/d in 2023.”




2. . US crude oil production averaged over the last 4 weeks is at 11.6 mbpd, which is 1.2 mbpd higher vs one year ago, when it averaged only 10.375 mbpd for the 4 weeks ending 2/26/21.

Also,

“U.S. crude oil production reached almost 11.8 million b/d in November 2021 (the most recent monthly historical data point), the most in any month since April 2020. We forecast that production will rise to an average of 12.0 million b/d in 2022 and 12.6 million b/d in 2023, which would be record-high production on an annual-average basis. The previous annual average record of 12.3 million b/d was set in 2019.”
Larry,

If you know, what is the current average oil consumption in the US on a daily (or weekly or monthly) basis? Ditto for NG?
Then if you know, what is the current average oil import into the US on a daily (or weekly or monthly) basis? Ditto for NG?
What I'm trying to get a ballpark on is how "short" are we on a daily (or weekly ... or heck even a monthly basis if the data is there) on current US consumption vs US current production.

Any numbers at your disposal?
 
Volatility and commodities have and will be a gold mine, just going back to early January. Wheat prices are at or above Arab Spring levels.
 
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