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Misc Sizzling Shenanigans: warm season whamby

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crecre9 said:
No one is saying that, at least not that I'm aware of, and certainly not me. But I'd argue that the NHC and the NWS did their job of warning people appropriately in the locations affected and not a single person i've seen calling them out has yet to provide evidence to the contrary. Pointing out where a city (fortunately) didn't experience predicted full hurricane strength and instead lesser storm affects is not the the dis that people is.
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I'm trying to figure out why this bothers you so much. They messed up, simple as that.
 
crecre9 said:
No one is saying that, at least not that I'm aware of, and certainly not me. But I'd argue that the NHC and the NWS did their job of warning people appropriately in the locations affected and not a single person i've seen calling them out has yet to provide evidence to the contrary. Pointing out where a city (fortunately) didn't experience predicted full hurricane strength and instead lesser storm affects is not the the dis that people is.
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I was one of the only ones dead set on its actual track. The rest of the forum thought I was nuts for the most part.

Our local news and the president of Dominion Energy even says it was worse than they expected.

How does a president of a major energy company get caught off guard if they did such a great job?
 
CamWX said:
I'm trying to figure out why this bothers you so much. They messed up, simple as that.
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I'm bothered by the people who think the NHC and NWS are MASSIVE FAIL OMG THEY"RE TERRIBLE. For their own sake, they are fooling themselves and they may in the future mislead others to their detriment.
 
Reddit had a high-visibility (by people who were online) AT Helene post

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Lots of views of what they expected in the comments, and one trail report with a sunny outcome.



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Shawn said:
I was one of the only ones dead set on its actual track. The rest of the forum thought I was nuts for the most part.

Our local news and the president of Dominion Energy even says it was worse than they expected.

How does a president of a major energy company get caught off guard if they did such a great job?
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How was that president caught off guard? I can imagine because I see it on the local level. Local officials in businesses, utilities, and school systems make their own decisions based on NWS briefings. I often read the same briefings and then I have to wonder how the officials make some of the choices that they do. I can't speak to Dominion Energy, but there are all kinds of reasons they may have thought it wouldn't be so bad.
 
crecre9 said:
No one is saying that, at least not that I'm aware of, and certainly not me. But I'd argue that the NHC and the NWS did their job of warning people appropriately in the locations affected and not a single person i've seen calling them out has yet to provide evidence to the contrary. Pointing out where a city (fortunately) didn't experience predicted full hurricane strength and instead lesser storm affects is not the the dis that people is.
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We ARE talking about their cone. That's what you're not getting. You're arguing against something no one else is talking about. Did Augusta and Greenville have Tropical Storm warnings? Yes. Did they think the center would pass by them and they'd get the worst the NE quadrant had to offer? Absolutely not. The NHC had the track going through Atlanta which depicted the worst conditions being in Georgia. Most models (that we have access to) showed the track going East of their cone. The question is why did they have such a skinny cone and not expand it to at least show the possibility of the center heading toward SC so people would have been more aware of the possibility? Again, no one cares they were technically under a Tropical Storm warning. The public sees the cone and operates based on that guidance.
 
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Nerman said:
We ARE talking about their cone. That's what you're not getting. You're arguing against something no one else is talking about. Did Augusta and Greenville have Tropical Storm warnings? Yes. Did they think the center would pass by them and they'd get the worst the NE quadrant had to offer? Absolutely not. The NHC had the track going through Atlanta which depicted the worst conditions being in Georgia. Most models (that we have access to) showed the track going East of their cone. The question is why did they have such a skinny cone and not expand it to at least show the possibility of the center heading toward SC so people would have been more aware of the possibility? Again, no one cares they were technically under a Tropical Storm warning. The public sees the cone and operates based on that guidance.
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The NHC does not arbitrarily adjust the size of the cone. In order to make the cone, the NHC forecasts the storm at a specific location. Then a circle is drawn around that forecast position based on the historical average error at that forecast time frame. At 12 hours, that radius is 26 miles, at 24 hours 41 miles and so on. This particular storm made the cone look skinnier than usual because the 12 hour position was so far from the 24 hour position due to the incredible forward motion.

 
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