Misc Sizzling Shenanigans: warm season whamby

[J.C.]

I'm hoping towards Strong Cat 2 or Weak Cat 3.

FIFY

 

[Drizzle Snizzle]

FIFY

The closer it gets to reality the more scared I get.

 

[RainlessSnowless & Grumpy]

Playing catchup this afternoon and every 3rd post is crying about the NHC doing what they are supposed to do…generate a forecast using every tool they have. Just because they don’t forecast it into your backyard when a couple of Global models show something similar doesn’t mean you should be up in arms about it. Most of you wouldn’t know what the globals were showing if they weren’t posted here anyway. Ok rant over. Things looking like they are about to ramp up…dry are will be completely ingested soon and may clear out an eye on the process!

like you wouldn't be doing the exact same thing if the NHC cone was east and the globals were west. I mean clearly one of the two camps are wrong. Clearly the NHC thinks it's the globals. We'll know soon enough

 

[severestorm]

doordash shut down already ahead of the tropical system for me.

 

[Brent]

That recon pass was not remotely impressive.

This thing is gonna have to get moving soon if it's going to bomb

 

[ILMRoss]

That recon pass was not remotely impressive.

This thing is gonna have to get moving soon if it's going to bomb

pressure is still dropping enough but i agree, only 24 hours left. the eyewall is still a moat that needs to constrict some

edit - this secondary band needs to constrict and choke out the flotsam inside of it for this storm to get going

 

[severestorm]

I think NHC is going to have to walk back some predictions.

 

[$alt]

Nope. The dry air will be gone by 06z tonight. just in time for the warm loop current. It will take off.

 

[Brick Tamland]

The play by play of what's going on in the grocery store in the Helene thread is riveting stuff.

 

[ILMRoss]

sorry i put analysis in the wrong place forgot this was this was the silly thread

 

[SD]

 

[$alt]

sorry i put analysis in the wrong place forgot this was this was the silly thread

You'll find better discussion here most of the time.

We have an issue with 3-4 posters who just won't learn. Not sure what we are gonna do, but we'll figure it out.

 

[severestorm]

Nope. The dry air will be gone by 06z tonight. just in time for the warm loop current. It will take off.

sounds good. what's your thoughts on the shear? Will that abate?

 

[$alt]

sounds good. what's your thoughts on the shear? Will that abate?

I know the environment is supposed to clear out completely.. id assume there will be some southwest shear that tries to weaken her shortly before landfall.

 

[$alt]

Browsing some other more tropical oriented discussion forums... we are not the only ones talking about the globals vs hurricane models


My best advice to everyone is to just assume you're getting 70+ mph winds and hope you don't at this point.

 

[Stevo24]

At least this is getting us all back in the swing of things for all of the winter storms coming up this winter

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Forgot about this place. I’m rusty. Let me learn to get comfortable in here again.

 

[$alt]

Forgot about this place. I’m rusty. Let me learn to get comfortable in here again.

Get the diapers, I will get the lotion

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

The way I laughed at this guys response to Accuweather

 

[Stevo24]

Iv purchased a lot of baby oil just for this occasion.