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Severe Severe Wx Threat 5/26-5/28/2017

stormcentral

stormcentral

First Alert Wx
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It appears a series or waves of storms may pose a threat for severe weather during the weekend memorial day holiday. First alert. This is a developing situation.
 
stormcentral said:
It appears a series or waves of storms may pose a threat for severe weather during the weekend memorial day holiday. First alert. This is a developing situation.
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As I posted in the May thread, there will be tons of CAPE available on Saturday night and Sunday for this to become a long track storm, and maybe a derecho. Also there isn't a threat on the 26th that I can see, so the 27th - 28th seems best.
 
I just watched the weather channels coverage on this. They are calling for a potential major severe outbreak on the 27th from the afternoon into the overnight. Currently the SPC has an enhanced risk in that area but it will most likely be increased with coming updates.
 
Should be an interesting weekend setup is right for a couple mcs with wind damage.

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I'm getting a kick out of the run to run model changes with this even the hrrr is struggling with location and timing this evening

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SD said:
I'm getting a kick out of the run to run model changes with this even the hrrr is struggling with location and timing this evening

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Right now HRRR looks stout this evening through here

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SD said:
I'm getting a kick out of the run to run model changes with this even the hrrr is struggling with location and timing this evening

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Yeah, it's driving our local mets nuts trying to figure out when and if these MCS will hit here.
 
metwannabe said:
Right now HRRR looks stout this evening through here

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certainly looks like the models want to bring something through after dark. Each run is a different orientation but it's still there. It's certainly going to be unstable if any disturbances or MCS move into the area the atmosphere is ripe for it to continue across the area. Our DCape values are fairly high so we have a legitimate wind damage threat. Also a weak backdoor front could make a run at your area enhancing your chances

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skywatcher said:
Yeah, it's driving our local mets nuts trying to figure out when and if these MCS will hit here.
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Hate it for them on a holiday weekend. If they call for it and people cancel plans everyone is angry. If they don't call for it and people get hit with storms while doing outdoor activities everyone is angry. Ah the life of a tv met

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At Lake Gaston for the weekend and staying in a trailer. Hope the storms miss us. We're under a watch now, so hopefully the trend continues of me getting nothing or nothing but rain and a couple of rumbles of thunder when I'm under a watch.

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Sounds like we might be getting a storm soon. Just heard thunder.
 
Storms in Mo are really intense. Some velocities over 100mph

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Hope they don't have another Joplin tornado to deal with.
 
Well my peak gust was 47, and got 0.24" but some of the loadest, longest lasting thunder I can ever remember. ( I even timed some, one lasted 53 seconds...darn)
 
It just fell apart right before it got to me. We ended up with a STW but just a slight sprinkle is all we saw.

Looks like we're just outside, feet outside the marginal area for today. We'll see how that changes through the day.
 
Got over half an inch here from all the rain, after a late severe thunderstorm watch and a few stronger storms, plus some wind. Was worse to the south though on round 2.
Here is a loop of the storms coming through Georgia.
codnexlab.NEXRAD.FFC.N0Q.20170528.1223.200ani.gif
 
Will be interesting to see what fires around here today the hrrr isn't impressed while the rgem and 3k nam have quite a few storms.

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SD said:
Will be interesting to see what fires around here today the hrrr isn't impressed while the rgem and 3k nam have quite a few storms.

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Well from past 24 hours... GFS and Nam didnt pick up on MCS's maintaining or coming so far Sout/SE.. while HRRR pretty much was dead on.. .. but as many of us know, models often are hit and miss with MCS based systems
 
The models have been horrible overall with severe weather threats here. No consistency at all.
 
The severe weather threats around here have become like the winter storm threats with regards to what the models show. Go with whichever one is the least impressive.

But if you get a storm coming your way without a watch, that's when you need to be worried.
 
Hi there! That is really scary. Storm causes major disaster in the life of people. As the warning got issued about the storm, people living in that area need to be prepared for the major big tornado. They need to take precaution so everyone needs to be safe in such drastic situation. Having a proper tools, supplies, and a first aid kit, make sure your home meets building codes for withstanding hurricanes, and they have storm shutters, hire good insurance company and home insurance claim adjuster for getting insurance and much more precaution to save their life.
 
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