B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Almost all of NC and SC are under an enhanced risk today for severe storms. Parts of GA and VA, too. Looks like the biggest threat we have had in a while.
The battle of the short range models today. NAM really looks bad for NC.
After analyzing morning model data.. I believe the worst of the Severe Storms will be over South Carolina, especially central and eastern parts Sun is out in full force.
Sunny over most of Central NC as well right now. Cat is loving it.
Instability looks to be growing each model run across Central NC no?
Full sun, muggy, and it's already windy this morning. Feels like a stormy day.
Going to be quite an active afternoon I'm afraid. Models usually struggle with initiation of storms on days like this but usually those remnant MCV's running into an unstable airmass like this really get cranking by 3-5pm just based on past experience. SC looks primed to see some explosive upscale growth this afternoon too but there are massive differences between the HRRR and 3km NAM. The HRRR focuses the storms forming in Eastern NC/SC with a scattered nature and little organization while the 3km NAM is showing several multi-cellular clusters forming. I tend to lean towards the 3km NAM idea given the thermodynamic environment and overall setup but we will see.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.comWhat's the latest NAM look like?