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Severe Severe Weather Threat 1/1/17-1/2/17

MichelleH link said:
The tornado risk is pretty much the same over the entire risk area.

day1probotlk_1200_torn.gif
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I'm not totally sure what SPC is thinking with all of this. You have an enhanced risk, but have the probabilities the same for all of Alabama? This has just been downright strange.
 
Coastal convection has been mentioned, but that wasn't the only or even the primary fly in the ointment as far as the northward extent of the severe threat. 

Convection along and just north of the secondary warm front preventing northward advancement was and is the bigger concern.

The original warm front is currently somewhere between Huntsville and Birmingham so it appears the odds are definitely increasing for a severe threat to be realized in central Alabama. 

Keep in mind the current Enhanced Risk area is for wind, not tornadoes. 

Based purely on radar this morning, it does not look as if the second warm front has stalled and is already north of Hwy 80.  Would be shocked to not see that risk area expanded northeastward and perhaps a 10% Tor Risk added in south Central Alabama.
 
The 10% torn was added, but further south than I expected based off radar.  I do see the higher CAPE values are still offshore so perhaps that is why.
 
Bama Ravens link said:
[quote author=MichelleH link=topic=84.msg6805#msg6805 date=1483345594]
The tornado risk is pretty much the same over the entire risk area.

day1probotlk_1200_torn.gif
Click to expand...
I'm not totally sure what SPC is thinking with all of this. You have an enhanced risk, but have the probabilities the same for all of Alabama? This has just been downright strange.
[/quote]
It's definitely been very bizarre SPC and BMX don't agree at all.
 
Again, based solely off radar and glancing at a couple sat frames, the effective boundary, west of I65,  appears well north of Hwy 80, even approaching I20 at the MS/AL line.  Although northward progress is slower east of I65, it does not appear stalled- yet.

Still expect a northward expansion of the risk later today if these trends continue and the areas just south of the boundary receive at least some insolation.
 
F-5 link said:
Again, based solely off radar and glancing at a couple sat frames, the effective boundary, west of I65,  appears well north of Hwy 80, even approaching I20 at the MS/AL line.  Although northward progress is slower east of I65, it does not appear stalled- yet.

Still expect a northward expansion of the risk later today if these trends continue and the areas just south of the boundary receive at least some insolation.
Click to expand...

I tend to agree...I think North Central Alabama will have a higher threat than what's currently indicated. JMO
 
MichelleH link said:
[quote author=F-5 link=topic=84.msg6885#msg6885 date=1483366476]
Again, based solely off radar and glancing at a couple sat frames, the effective boundary, west of I65,  appears well north of Hwy 80, even approaching I20 at the MS/AL line.  Although northward progress is slower east of I65, it does not appear stalled- yet.

Still expect a northward expansion of the risk later today if these trends continue and the areas just south of the boundary receive at least some insolation.
Click to expand...

I tend to agree...I think North Central Alabama will have a higher threat than what's currently indicated. JMO
[/quote]
Also very little convection along the coast at this hour. Could change. If it doesn't, game on.
 
Latest from BMX:


HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
623 AM CST MON JAN 2 2017

ALZ011>015-017>050-031530-
MARION-LAMAR-FAYETTE-WINSTON-WALKER-BLOUNT-ETOWAH-CALHOUN-CHEROKEE-
CLEBURNE-PICKENS-TUSCALOOSA-JEFFERSON-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-TALLADEGA-
CLAY-RANDOLPH-SUMTER-GREENE-HALE-PERRY-BIBB-CHILTON-COOSA-TALLAPOOSA-
CHAMBERS-MARENGO-DALLAS-AUTAUGA-LOWNDES-ELMORE-MONTGOMERY-MACON-
BULLOCK-LEE-RUSSELL-PIKE-BARBOUR-
623 AM CST MON JAN 2 2017

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...OUTLOOK THROUGH TONIGHT.

LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL LIMIT VISIBILITIES TO ONE MILE OR LESS AT
TIMES ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH AROUND 9 AM. USE
CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

A LIMITED RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS IS POSSIBLE FOR THIS AFTERNOON
AND OVERNIGHT FROM AROUND NOON TO AROUND 3 AM ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE RISK WILL BE GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
MILLPORT TO CALERA TO LAFAYETTE LINE FROM NOON TO 8 PM SHIFTING TO
ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LIVINGSTON TO CALERA TO CHEAHA LINE FROM 8 PM
TO AROUND 3 AM. AN ENHANCED RISK WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTH
OF A LINE FROM DEMOPOLIS TO MONTGOMERY TO JUST NORTH OF AUBURN
INITIALLY FROM AROUND NOON TO 8 PM SHIFTING TO ALONG AND SOUTH OF
A SELMA TO JUST NORTH OF AUBURN LINE FROM AROUND 8 PM TO 3 AM.
ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS, CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED SOME. THE
MAIN THREATS WILL BE POSSIBLE TORNADOES, DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 60
MPH, AND LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT MAY BE
NEEDED BY THIS AFTERNOON.

$$

08
 
Things to watch today. No particular order.
1. Convection north of the warm front that could limit destabilization.
2. Convection along the coast that would inhibit northward movement of unstable air.
3. Dew points already some low to mid 60s over southern ms/al with close to 70 degree readings on the immediate coast with numbers of 70 degrees just offshore. How far north will that airmass make it could hold the key to this event. 
 
Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Jefferson County, Al

15823723_1132477720202872_1090885599734755532_n.jpg
 
New SPC Day 1 outlook comes out in about 20 minutes. Curious to see if it has changed.
 
TW for Greene County in SE MS.  Pretty good rotation.  Seems to be right on the boundary of higher CAPE.

There has definitely been an uptick in convective activity of late that may inhibit the juiciest air from advecting too far northward.  That combined with what appears will be a lack of insolation further north should limit the severe threat somewhat toward Birmingham and points northward.  That graphic above looks pretty spot on to me given the precipitation in SE MS at the moment.  There is a tongue of higher CAPE in AL trying its best to get to Montgomery.
 
Still no huge blob of convection on the coast just a few descrete cells let's see if this trend continues.
 
Thundersnow89 link said:
BMX caved to SPC *edit* (somewhat)
15873248_1242155332490547_528645658461807427_n.png
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I have to wonder if they really feel like there is more of a threat for northern parts of their CWA, or if they just did it to be uniform with the SPC and avoid the criticism they have been getting from being so much different from SPC.
 
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