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Severe weather potential May 2 - 4

Chazwin said:
I agree... I’ve had a feeling since Sunday that today would be a bigger deal for the upstate and WNC including CLT metro. The sun is out and heating things up quick and the air just has that feel to it. I was suprised things got as active here yesterday after seeing overcast skies all morning and today there a lot fuel to set things off.
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Yeah there’s a overall lack of low level speed shear/directional shear today, but just enough (25kts or so) of effective shear to probably organize things into a MCS or a loosely organized MCS, that and the Lee trough should set things off today, overall tornado threat is very low, but could be a few-handful damaging microbursts events/some isolated large hail events today around our areas, further east towards Raleigh is a question, PBL might mix out quite a bit which would eat cape and weaken updrafts
 
Can’t sleep on tomorrow either plenty of dry air aloft with solid speed shear in the mid levels, while LRs aren’t that good the dry air aloft should make up for it a bit and allow a low wind/hail threat EFCE172F-08B2-40FB-9E58-2F34B67B2DBA.pngA143A097-F509-4D70-93C8-9C436E1E31B9.png79077EAE-C81B-409D-8AD4-40D8E07D7B3B.png68A53656-DF47-4B6E-82AC-BF96A411FDE9.png
 
Arcc said:
Hmm CC is still messy, but may have a tornado on the ground.
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The hook and ball on that thing is crazy. For it not to be producing something. Wondering if the radar beam and the cluttering are disrupting the view
 
@Arcc that looks like a tornado tbh. I bet your right on CC. Probably one that's near the ground. Absolute beast of a structure
 
Tight rotation for rotation that close to radar. Inflow is really good as well. This one is close to doing something or already is.Screenshot_20210504-090950.png
 
Arcc said:
That sure looks like a debris ball. If it’s not it’s definitely fooled me.
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Check New Orleans velocity. Press play and watch the last few scans looks like a CC drop in the middle of rotation.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Yeah there’s a overall lack of low level speed shear/directional shear today, but just enough (25kts or so) of effective shear to probably organize things into a MCS or a loosely organized MCS, that and the Lee trough should set things off today, overall tornado threat is very low, but could be a few-handful damaging microbursts events/some isolated large hail events today around our areas, further east towards Raleigh is a question, PBL might mix out quite a bit which would eat cape and weaken updrafts
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What is PBL and why is it eating me out!
 
That jackson mississippi tornado was confined down. Saw a video
 
Full day of sun here. Expecting more storm coverage for NC today. Looks like MS, AR, LA, and of course AL are under the gun today for tornadoes.
 
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