Darklordsuperstorm
Member
This potential event looks like it will be worth discussing. Looks like this may be the first threat in a while where instability will not be a question.
...DISCUSSION... Medium-range model output continues to indicate strong cyclogenesis will commence across the southern Plains by 12Z Saturday, before continuing northeastward through the Great Lakes region by 12Z Sunday. Guidance indicates that the rapid evolution of a broad and deep cyclone is likely, aided by a vigorous short wave impulse emerging from the Southwest. It appears that this will be accompanied by an intensifying cyclonic mid-level jet, including in excess of 100 kt at 500 mb by midday Saturday across the southern Plains Red River Valley, and 50-80+ kt south/southwesterly 850-700 mb flow across the destabilizing warm sector. This environment may become conducive to the evolution of a significant organized mesoscale convective system, potentially accompanied by considerable damaging wind gusts. Highest severe probabilities appear focused in a swath across parts of the Ozark Plateau and lower Mississippi Valley into the Tennessee and lower Ohio Valleys. A warm front may initially be located along a corridor near or just south of the Ohio River, west southwestward into northwestern Arkansas, near the northern periphery of the currently depicted 15 percent severe probabilities. While the influence of current snow and ice cover near and northwest of this region remains uncertain, this boundary may ultimately remain the focus for the track of the northern flank of an evolving squall line. However, based on the track of the low, aided by strong dynamic forcing, destabilization supportive of severe thunderstorm potential could develop northward into southern portions of the Great Lakes region Saturday night. The southern edge of the 15 percent probabilities is based on the model consensus of the southern periphery of the deeper surface cyclone. The southern flank of an evolving squall line may extend this far south, where boundary-layer moistening and destabilization will likely be most favorable. This environment may also support discrete supercell development in advance of the squall line. In addition to the risk for damaging convective gusts, there appears potential for tornadoes, including some strong.
...DISCUSSION... Medium-range model output continues to indicate strong cyclogenesis will commence across the southern Plains by 12Z Saturday, before continuing northeastward through the Great Lakes region by 12Z Sunday. Guidance indicates that the rapid evolution of a broad and deep cyclone is likely, aided by a vigorous short wave impulse emerging from the Southwest. It appears that this will be accompanied by an intensifying cyclonic mid-level jet, including in excess of 100 kt at 500 mb by midday Saturday across the southern Plains Red River Valley, and 50-80+ kt south/southwesterly 850-700 mb flow across the destabilizing warm sector. This environment may become conducive to the evolution of a significant organized mesoscale convective system, potentially accompanied by considerable damaging wind gusts. Highest severe probabilities appear focused in a swath across parts of the Ozark Plateau and lower Mississippi Valley into the Tennessee and lower Ohio Valleys. A warm front may initially be located along a corridor near or just south of the Ohio River, west southwestward into northwestern Arkansas, near the northern periphery of the currently depicted 15 percent severe probabilities. While the influence of current snow and ice cover near and northwest of this region remains uncertain, this boundary may ultimately remain the focus for the track of the northern flank of an evolving squall line. However, based on the track of the low, aided by strong dynamic forcing, destabilization supportive of severe thunderstorm potential could develop northward into southern portions of the Great Lakes region Saturday night. The southern edge of the 15 percent probabilities is based on the model consensus of the southern periphery of the deeper surface cyclone. The southern flank of an evolving squall line may extend this far south, where boundary-layer moistening and destabilization will likely be most favorable. This environment may also support discrete supercell development in advance of the squall line. In addition to the risk for damaging convective gusts, there appears potential for tornadoes, including some strong.