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Severe Weather March 28-29

Joined
Jan 5, 2017
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Location
Odenville Alabama
Weekend threat starting to take shape.


On Saturday, the models remain in good agreement, moving the
upper-level trough into the upper Mississippi Valley and Ozarks. A
cold front is forecast to move quickly eastward into the Mississippi
Valley as a moist airmass advects northward across the Ohio and
Tennessee Valleys. Weak instability appears likely to develop across
parts of the moist sector by afternoon. Thunderstorms that form
along and ahead of the cold front should move eastward across the
Tennessee Valley and northern Gulf Coast States during the
afternoon. Deep-layer shear is forecast to be strong enough to
support a severe threat. Wind damage, hail and possibly a tornado
threat could develop Saturday afternoon.

day5prob (2).gif
 
New SPC day 2 outlook just went all in for this event for areas north of the southeast with a moderate risk area outlined for parts of Illinois. Still though a slight risk region does exist in Tennessee and northern Mississippi and Alabama. Worst of it looks to be north of the southeast though. 15% tornado risk already in Illinois!CB54AD25-844D-4DA5-B371-0EC38B577BC5.gifF1E5D832-8C92-4E4C-943E-BE5DBDD30D48.gif
 
New SPC day 2 outlook just went all in for this event for areas north of the southeast with a moderate risk area outlined for parts of Illinois. Still though a slight risk region does exist in Tennessee and northern Mississippi and Alabama. Worst of it looks to be north of the southeast though. 15% tornado risk already in Illinois!View attachment 37926View attachment 37927

I’ve seen some modeled soundings out of Illinois and they support damaging tornadoes
 
Well from what I ve seen posted on various Tweets etc. These will be a problem keeping up with due to the combination of structure (degree of tilt) and speed( 60-80 kts).. When you couple that with reduced staffs and/or " working from home" with both NWS ande Media it will be interesting to follow and see what works, etc.
Personally I m glad that the "Beta Test" so to speak is not in our area
 
Plus one here. Was just fixing post that Shane. Good catch
If you look at the 10m wind vector plots on the 3k winds actually turn more south just ahead of any thing that gets going in this area. You have a good overlap of upper dynamics and sfc heating/ moisture in this area. Wouldn't be shocked to see SPC upgrade some of the area. The HRRR is underwhelming though so that gives me a little pause
 
Storm modes in that moderate risk look like there gonna be messy with HP supercells
 
Tornado on the ground near Greenfield, Iowa.

Tornado Warning
IAC001-077-121-282000-
/O.NEW.KDMX.TO.W.0001.200328T1924Z-200328T2000Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
224 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020

The National Weather Service in Des Moines has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
Northwestern Madison County in south central Iowa...
South central Guthrie County in west central Iowa...
Northeastern Adair County in southwestern Iowa...

* Until 300 PM CDT.

* At 224 PM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located near Greenfield,
moving northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Damaging tornado and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Law enforcement confirmed tornado.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree
damage is likely.

* The tornado will be near...
Stuart around 250 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include
Fontanelle and Menlo.

This includes Interstate 80 between mile markers 85 and 96.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To repeat, a tornado is on the ground. TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a
basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy
building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in
a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect
yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 4126 9454 4128 9460 4156 9445 4150 9424
TIME...MOT...LOC 1924Z 210DEG 32KT 4132 9454

TORNADO...OBSERVED
HAIL...1.00IN

$$
 
PDS confirmed Jonesboro AR moving NE
7644f88fde5f1c5970c48418e8029d08.jpg
KAIT TV is live feed
 
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