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Severe Weather March 28-29

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Weekend threat starting to take shape.


On Saturday, the models remain in good agreement, moving the
upper-level trough into the upper Mississippi Valley and Ozarks. A
cold front is forecast to move quickly eastward into the Mississippi
Valley as a moist airmass advects northward across the Ohio and
Tennessee Valleys. Weak instability appears likely to develop across
parts of the moist sector by afternoon. Thunderstorms that form
along and ahead of the cold front should move eastward across the
Tennessee Valley and northern Gulf Coast States during the
afternoon. Deep-layer shear is forecast to be strong enough to
support a severe threat. Wind damage, hail and possibly a tornado
threat could develop Saturday afternoon.

day5prob (2).gif
 

BufordWX

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New SPC day 2 outlook just went all in for this event for areas north of the southeast with a moderate risk area outlined for parts of Illinois. Still though a slight risk region does exist in Tennessee and northern Mississippi and Alabama. Worst of it looks to be north of the southeast though. 15% tornado risk already in Illinois! CB54AD25-844D-4DA5-B371-0EC38B577BC5.gif F1E5D832-8C92-4E4C-943E-BE5DBDD30D48.gif
 

Myfrotho704_

RidgeSZN
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New SPC day 2 outlook just went all in for this event for areas north of the southeast with a moderate risk area outlined for parts of Illinois. Still though a slight risk region does exist in Tennessee and northern Mississippi and Alabama. Worst of it looks to be north of the southeast though. 15% tornado risk already in Illinois!View attachment 37926View attachment 37927
I’ve seen some modeled soundings out of Illinois and they support damaging tornadoes
 
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