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Severe Severe Threat March 15-16 2026

The trend is having the line be slower by 2-3 hours now. 1st the HRRR and now the NAM are slower. We now have up to 1300 CAPE here on the HRRR for the line instead of the 500 on the 18z run. The NAM now shows the line hitting me at 2pm or so instead of around noon. If these trends continue, that enhanced risk will be coming west.
 
Shaggy said:
Still seems to be too much sloppy messy showers and storms. Seen a lot of nasty looking setups end up underperforming due to clouds and rain not allowing peak conditions to come together
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That does seem to be the case in eastern NC, but not so much back to the west. We may have the clouds back here, but probably not much rain or storms until the line arrives.
 
The RRFS A is looking nasty tomorrow evening from around GSP to Charlotte. Discreet cells with as much as 1300 CAPE in that area.
 
tornadoes or not, the wind is going to be a story maker both during and behind the front.

nam3km_mslp_uv850_us_41.png
 
Today is a time that local news in the Columbus/Montgomery TV markets need to press the importance of setting emergency alerts on your phone, or having a weather radio. As someone who used to live in Columbus, those sirens are not going to wake you up with a storm at 2 AM.
 
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