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Severe Severe Threat March 15-16 2026

The trend is having the line be slower by 2-3 hours now. 1st the HRRR and now the NAM are slower. We now have up to 1300 CAPE here on the HRRR for the line instead of the 500 on the 18z run. The NAM now shows the line hitting me at 2pm or so instead of around noon. If these trends continue, that enhanced risk will be coming west.
 
Shaggy said:
Still seems to be too much sloppy messy showers and storms. Seen a lot of nasty looking setups end up underperforming due to clouds and rain not allowing peak conditions to come together
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That does seem to be the case in eastern NC, but not so much back to the west. We may have the clouds back here, but probably not much rain or storms until the line arrives.
 
The RRFS A is looking nasty tomorrow evening from around GSP to Charlotte. Discreet cells with as much as 1300 CAPE in that area.
 
Today is a time that local news in the Columbus/Montgomery TV markets need to press the importance of setting emergency alerts on your phone, or having a weather radio. As someone who used to live in Columbus, those sirens are not going to wake you up with a storm at 2 AM.
 
Just going off on my history ( no weather statistics) usually the storms in FL panhandle, SE AL & SW AL kinda robs the instability for the Metro ATL northward. Now, I am not putting my guard down because I dont know all the parameters of this since I have been busy with life, but I do remember last year setup around this time and North GA escaped with about 1 to 2 weak tornadoes and the main event was in the area where SPC was the highest risk area now. This will be an interesting theory. In all though, this is a very serious event for all of The SE, especially the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic on Monday. Pray for peace and a missing parameter that would not allow to outbreak to happen.
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These setups are always nowcast, I remember April 11, 2011 and being cloudy until late morning while watching a squall line move east out of the upstate thinking the high risk was a bust. Then the sun came out, winds went nuts from mixing with gust to 50 well before the squall line which promptly went semi discrete and raised hell for 4 hrs across NC. Bottom line is if these storms get breathing room at all there will be strong tornados, even if the line stays linear or large bowing segments there will be tornados though probably less strong and long lasting.
 
Will be interesting to see how things play out today. Only a 10 degree forecast difference with highs and lows. Wonder if it will get any warmer today than forecasted, especially if a delay in timing . Once clouds move coverage moves in , to see the lows and how that affects what energy might or might not be available.
 
Man the NAM3 is a good bit slower than the HRRR. Combine that with the general over-excitability of the NAM3 and you get a pretty wild parameter space. Faster than modeled is a good expectation, but where is "modeled?" Where the NAM3 has the line approaching the Triad at 4pm, the HRRR is right over Raleigh.

Usually the answer is in-between, but I would lean further towards the HRRR timing-wise.
 
SD said:
Fv3 is the classic way severe threats get muted in this area, qlcs to the west gets out ran by the ofb
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Hope that is the case because a level 4 threat is very concerning. I wouldn't mind a bust with this with the way RAH and the local mets are talking about how serious it could be.
 
MSnowAtl said:
I dont know if this is banter, if so please move it, but Glenn Burns used this AI generated map for the storms tomorrow and all the county names are pretty much spelled wrong. WOW!
View attachment 195052
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Is that Iran County, GA....

Edit: Great Scott, there are two of em.
 
Weak supercell developing near Ulmer, SC with broad rotation. Not expecting much today, but something to keep an eye on. I expect more of these to form over the next few hours along this band of showers with some hodograph curvature but a lack of significant shear/weaker winds aloft until overnight/tomorrow. IMG_3496.jpegIMG_3497.jpeg
 
MSnowAtl said:
I dont know if this is banter, if so please move it, but Glenn Burns used this AI generated map for the storms tomorrow and all the county names are pretty much spelled wrong. WOW!
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It just straight made up counties. What the hell? Why do people, much less professionals, post AI generated slop like this? How do they not look this over and go, “Hey, this doesn’t look right, let me *not* post this on the Internet”????

EDIT: sorry if this is banter, but I think it’s worth pointing out to those lurking on the thread who aren’t well versed in maphood like we are, that one should always be cautious looking over posts especially if it’s AI generated
 
I am not worried about the tornado threat with Monday's cold front passage as much as I am the high wind threat. There should not be many detached super cells with this system that would have a good chance of spinning up tornadoes. On the other hand, I was just watching the Spectrum weather forecast that showed a graphic which showed a significant threat of wind gusts above hurricane force over the central Carolinas. That will cause widespread damage where that occurs.
 
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