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Severe Severe Threat April 5th-7th

metwannabe said:
The NAM is interesting in that it has this current blob of rain really weakening and shifting off to the south of us, then rapidly blows convection up around 1 am in Cen NC which could have some rotation followed by more storms with the frontal passage. Still need to watch this one it has potential that's for sure

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little concerned about what may come off the gulf early tomorrow AM as well ... :oops:
 
Brian Peters and meaghan Thomas are cracking me up in the chaser right now
 
SD said:
Yep, the 18z NAM doesn't have the dewpoint at RDU going above 60 until 6z so it's going to be a while before we even start to get unstable
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60+ DPs just south. I don't think we're going to have to wait till 6z. Dry Bias NAM?? :)

I checked the obs west south and east of us. Winds appear to be from random directions. NW over here, S over there, NE on this side, etc. So right now, it's hard to get a feel for solid moisture advection, although we have come a long way since 47 at Noon!
 
All that said, usually, things turn out to be quite a bit less dramatic than we think. Still need to watch it, though.
 
Rain Cold said:
60+ DPs just south. I don't think we're going to have to wait till 6z. Dry Bias NAM?? :)

I checked the obs west south and east of us. Winds appear to be from random directions. NW over here, S over there, NE on this side, etc. So right now, it's hard to get a feel for solid moisture advection, although we have come a long way since 47 at Noon!
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Mid 60 DP's in Johnston and Harnett Counties so yeah literally on your door step...
 
I think Atlanta might actually have a chance to grow unstable here now. Looks like a stretch of partly cloudy skies with no little junk storms to interfere.
 
One thing to consider is that the "wedge boundary" might actually turn into a focus for storms later. So, it's possible that storms could get quite bad around the Atlanta area. Of course, it's hard to say where this will happen if it does.
 
Just got finished with what I like to call a "music nap"...looks as if round 3 is well on the way to forming.

Its still absolutely pouring here.
 
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