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Severe Severe Threat April 5th-7th

Main event underway. I think these things are going to ramp up with a quickness.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
Again I wouldn't call the PDS tornado watch a full on bust in Georgia/South Carolina but the rain that developed near Macon has helped hold it down somewhat.

Boy would it look bad for that other Tornado Watch that was JUST issued to have NO thunderstorms develop at all in some of it though.
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Is a High Risk area the same as a PDS now? I haven't seen a PDS issued today, but perhaps the SPC has changed their nomenclature and I wasn't aware of the change.
 
skywatcher said:
Is a High Risk area the same as a PDS now? I haven't seen a PDS issued today, but perhaps the SPC has changed their nomenclature and I wasn't aware of the change.
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There is a PDS Tornado Watch out. Watch #125.

This is it:

*NOT A NEW WATCH*

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 125
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1255 PM EDT Wed Apr 5 2017

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of
Southeast Alabama
Florida Panhandle
Central and Southwest Georgia
Western South Carolina

* Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 1255 PM
until 800 PM EDT.

...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

* Primary threats include...
Numerous tornadoes expected with a few intense tornadoes likely
Widespread large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5
inches in diameter likely
Widespread damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
to 75 mph possible

SUMMARY...Intense supercell thunderstorms are expected to develop
this afternoon over the watch area, posing a risk of strong
tornadoes. Large hail and damaging winds are possible as well.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 85 statute miles
north and south of a line from 20 miles west southwest of Dothan AL
to 45 miles east of Augusta GA. For a complete depiction of the
watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
 
Still struggling in northern Georgia
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18z NAM has several clusters of storms going through the Triangle later tonight/tomorrow morning.
 
Been sitting at between 57 and 58 degrees here in Dahlonega, Ga all day. Dewpoint fixed at 56. This is the kind of strong wedge that we would kill for in winter.
 
Bama Ravens said:
There is a PDS Tornado Watch out. Watch #125.

This is it:

*NOT A NEW WATCH*

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 125
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1255 PM EDT Wed Apr 5 2017

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of
Southeast Alabama
Florida Panhandle
Central and Southwest Georgia
Western South Carolina

* Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 1255 PM
until 800 PM EDT.

...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

* Primary threats include...
Numerous tornadoes expected with a few intense tornadoes likely
Widespread large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5
inches in diameter likely
Widespread damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
to 75 mph possible

SUMMARY...Intense supercell thunderstorms are expected to develop
this afternoon over the watch area, posing a risk of strong
tornadoes. Large hail and damaging winds are possible as well.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 85 statute miles
north and south of a line from 20 miles west southwest of Dothan AL
to 45 miles east of Augusta GA. For a complete depiction of the
watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
Click to expand...
Thanks for clearing that up. I'm not seeing it outlined and called a PDS in the Day 1 graphic from SPC, that was what confused me.
 
WCLumpkin said:
Been sitting at between 57 and 58 degrees here in Dahlonega, Ga all day. Dewpoint fixed at 56. This is the kind of strong wedge that we would kill for in winter.
Click to expand...

LOL. I often find the wedges during these severe weather events are tougher to erode than during winter events. I have seen it so many times.
 
Rain Cold said:
18z NAM has several clusters of storms going through the Triangle later tonight/tomorrow morning.
Click to expand...
Hard to imagine we will get much. Just doesn't seem humid and warm enough today, and it's been cloudy all day. Usually when we get severe storms here it's after we've had plenty of sun.
 
New SPC map has some minor changes. Looks like the risk expands north a big, high area is smaller but still a massive hatched area in all categories.
 
Cloud erosion just about thru the GA/AL border may get some warming and erosion of that wedge at least for the West Georgia area soon
 
Brick Tamland said:
Hard to imagine we will get much. Just doesn't seem humid and warm enough today, and it's been cloudy all day. Usually when we get severe storms here it's after we've had plenty of sun.
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Usually we get it in the afternoon/evening also. The higher DPs are creeping in. Instability should increase here overnight.
 
These storms are gonna have to literally fire right on top of me. Dry line close. SPC and nws not caving yet it seems
 
Rain Cold said:
Usually we get it in the afternoon/evening also. The higher DPs are creeping in. Instability should increase here overnight.
Click to expand...
Rah AFD lets us know that we still have a long ways to go here....

despite the nighttime passage which usually results in lower low level lapse rates, these steep lapse
rates aloft (and the resultant elevated CAPE) combined with vigorous
dynamic forcing for ascent, long looping hodographs, rising surface
dewpoints, and strong kinematics increases confidence in the risk of
severe winds, hail, and isolated tornadoes. Timing of this later
round of convection looks most likely to be between 2 pm and 9 am,
with adverse effects on the morning commute in the Triangle and
Fayetteville areas to the east during the morning rush hour.
 
I am starting to think the wedge isn't going to break around Atlanta now. It's just too stubborn and we can't manage to get more than 3 mins of sunshine between these little storms.
 
metwannabe said:
Rah AFD lets us know that we still have a long ways to go here....

despite the nighttime passage which usually results in lower low level lapse rates, these steep lapse
rates aloft (and the resultant elevated CAPE) combined with vigorous
dynamic forcing for ascent, long looping hodographs, rising surface
dewpoints, and strong kinematics increases confidence in the risk of
severe winds, hail, and isolated tornadoes. Timing of this later
round of convection looks most likely to be between 2 pm and 9 am,
with adverse effects on the morning commute in the Triangle and
Fayetteville areas to the east during the morning rush hour.
Click to expand...
RAH sounded pretty confident today in their briefings. Guess we just have to wait and see. I think it'll depend on if we really get the higher dew points here to fire up the storms.
 
metwannabe said:
Rah AFD lets us know that we still have a long ways to go here....

despite the nighttime passage which usually results in lower low level lapse rates, these steep lapse
rates aloft (and the resultant elevated CAPE) combined with vigorous
dynamic forcing for ascent, long looping hodographs, rising surface
dewpoints, and strong kinematics increases confidence in the risk of
severe winds, hail, and isolated tornadoes. Timing of this later
round of convection looks most likely to be between 2 pm and 9 am,
with adverse effects on the morning commute in the Triangle and
Fayetteville areas to the east during the morning rush hour.
Click to expand...
Yep, outlines the risk quite well!
 
Rain Cold said:
Usually we get it in the afternoon/evening also. The higher DPs are creeping in. Instability should increase here overnight.
Click to expand...
Yep, the 18z NAM doesn't have the dewpoint at RDU going above 60 until 6z so it's going to be a while before we even start to get unstable
 
Rain Cold said:
18z NAM has several clusters of storms going through the Triangle later tonight/tomorrow morning.
Click to expand...
The NAM is interesting in that it has this current blob of rain really weakening and shifting off to the south of us, then rapidly blows convection up around 1 am in Cen NC which could have some rotation followed by more storms with the frontal passage. Still need to watch this one it has potential that's for sure

NAMNSTMA_con_uphlysw_025.png
 
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