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Severe Severe Threat April 5th-7th

Ben jones of WMAZ Macon just put up a live video. Showing strong convection with the warm front from Macon north, lots of discreet super cells through the day, and finally a squall line with plenty of super cells out front in the evening. They're showing as late as 2 am for middle Georgia.
 
Sun setting things on fire at 2PM, just as things start kicking to the west
HRRR model sim satellite
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I'm getting concerned about the early morning stuff, I likely won't be awake by then. Hope nothing happens at that time. I'll be wide awake for the rest though.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
If it were to be right, 3k NAM is basically standing ground on I-65 and east being ground zero. Seems like it's suggesting 2 or 3 rounds overall, the final one being late at night - early Thursday morning (not in the western parts of the SE).
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Everyone needs to be extremely cautious about any potential storms that fire up tomorrow night. Multiple people died in the county north of me during a nocturnal tornado back during the January outbreak. The sheer fact that the sun has set doesn't mean that the danger level has significantly dropped.
 
WeatherDawg87 said:
Everyone needs to be extremely cautious about any potential storms that fire up tomorrow night. Multiple people died in the county north of me during a nocturnal tornado back during the January outbreak. The sheer fact that the sun has set doesn't mean that the danger level has significantly dropped.
Click to expand...

Yep, the big one that came close to my house in 2011 was at 3 in the morning. From what I'm seeing points to the east of Atlanta may see something into the night, not sure about north of that area but Georgia sees a reduction in risk from west to east around 9-10pm as things look now. Once the front passes.
 
Glen burns now saying the first round will be super cells with possible long track tornados. Roughly 10-11 am for Atlanta area, maybe sooner. Middle ga will see them earlier.
 
I'm eyeing AL/GA border into Central GA, worried about the Atlanta metro given timing...these storms could start firing around 15z tomorrow into 18z (for Atlanta)...
3km NAM looks scary for Ga. Isolated supercells at 5pm just south of the Atlanta metro after the main line.
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The 3km supercells pictured above are essentially stationary from 3pm to 6pm if you loop the model run above, pretty impressive line of isolated supercells. STP is everywhere so you're pretty much going to get TOR or PDS TOR soundings anywhere you click on pivotal, so it's good to look at the sounding itself and the angle of the hodograph, along with radar composite forecasts to get a complete picture. If you don't have supercells then you're basically hoping your PDS TOR is embedded and rain wrapped in a line. I'm more interested in those lonely guys. We have plenty of shear to go around, this is a monster storm with 80-90kt+ winds at 500mb.
 
There are a lot of mixed signals from the CAM models on the tornado potential for north GA today (from Atlanta north), 3km NAM says no, but NMMB, and HRF-ARW say yes
 
Looks like some areas that were in the moderate risk are now only in the enhanced area. It almost looks like it has the look of a wedge type effect in NE GA ? Anyway, i'm pretty much writing this system off in this area.
 
That 15% tor is along that stubborn warm front boundary. why the shape is kinda odd.

with just a 5% , we had a confirmed EF2 here, and 2-3 others around the area monday. the tor threat is real, even if you arent hatched in 15%.
 
Well 15% Hatched Tornado Risk along and east/south of Roughly I 85 to US 78 Corridor for AL/GA and East North of I 65/I 20 in NE AL to West of US 27..
 
Hopefully the wedge will weaken the storms as they move into Atlanta :). Hard to say if the wedge will be strong enough at this point.
 
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To my untrained eye the 6z 3k nam really ramps up the threat for north Georgia versus previous runs. Can someone else verify that I'm seeing this right? Huge increase on cape for the lake Lanier area vs 0z.
 
yeah the 6z looks like it increased the threat over NE AL, NW GA, into the TN valley

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Large hail moving into Columbus, Ga

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