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Severe Severe Threat April 5th-7th

Both WRFs are howling High Risk and Tornado outbreak. Very nasty look from I65 to Atlanta, north and south.

Don't know if they are reliable anymore, but they keep winds backed much longer which is the biggest red flag.
 
Keep in mind these morning storms are not gonna be anything to sneeze at . I feel like people are dismissing them and going all in on tomorrow afternoon


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Arcc said:
Both WRFs are howling High Risk and Tornado outbreak. Very nasty look from I65 to Atlanta, north and south.

Don't know if they are reliable anymore, but they keep winds backed much longer which is the biggest red flag.
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Just looked after your post . Wow yeah they are. I have no clue if they are reliable . How reliable were they back in the day ?


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Interested to see a few more model runs as yesterdays threat while still packing a punch did have SPC downgrade it early in day so will be interesting to see if this continues to stay the course, intensify, or weaken. If it stays the same could be all hands on deck tomorrow
 
I am by no means making any comparison to April 27th, but in regards to the morning storms being overlooked, the morning round of storms on 4/27/11 were more "linear" but they did more damage in my backyard than the afternoon round. I lived in vestavia and we suffered bad damage and Cahaba heights suffered awful damage as well. That morning round of storms was often overlooked by obviously the much larger and devastating afternoon outbreak. People defeinetley don't need to take the morning storms lightly at all. Agree 100%
 
Parker said:
I am by no means making any comparison to April 27th, but in regards to the morning storms being overlooked, the morning round of storms on 4/27/11 were more "linear" but they did more damage in my backyard than the afternoon round. I lived in vestavia and we suffered bad damage and Cahaba heights suffered awful damage as well. That morning round of storms was often overlooked by obviously the much larger and devastating afternoon outbreak. People defeinetley don't need to take the morning storms lightly at all. Agree 100%
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Yeah the morning storms are going to be strong I guess the general thought is well the Cape, lift and all aren't as high as they come thru...BUT if that's underestimated or it migrates further north sooner in the AM we got 2 very strong severe storm events tomorrow which with conditions would span many tornadoes and strong winds.
 
Parker said:
I am by no means making any comparison to April 27th, but in regards to the morning storms being overlooked, the morning round of storms on 4/27/11 were more "linear" but they did more damage in my backyard than the afternoon round. I lived in vestavia and we suffered bad damage and Cahaba heights suffered awful damage as well. That morning round of storms was often overlooked by obviously the much larger and devastating afternoon outbreak. People defeinetley don't need to take the morning storms lightly at all. Agree 100%
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Yep the morning storms that day killed a guy in a grocery store parking lot down the road from my house when a parking lot light fell on his car .


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I think parts of SE AL and much of N and C GA see a high risk issued for tomorrow.
 
deltadog03 said:
I think parts of SE AL and much of N and C GA see a high risk issued for tomorrow.
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Is there something you are seeing that I am not? I am seeing things remain calmer and further south than what the SPC is showing, Maybe a high risk for south Georgia, like Atlanta south, but I don't see up here in North Georgia having a high risk. From what I see, the CAPE fizzles when it reaches Georgia by Wednsday evening, STPs fall, and overall I can maybe see far West Georgia having a higher risk, but I doubt that NE GA will be in a high risk. In fact, we may be downgraded to enhanced if the other models end up falling in line with what the NAM is showing, but if I am wrong anywhere in my statement, please correct me.
 
dadgum it

Issuing Office: Jacksonville
Source: National.Weather.Service
9:21am EDT, Tue Apr 4

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSONVILLE HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHEASTERN ALACHUA COUNTY IN NORTHERN FLORIDA... NORTHWESTERN MARION COUNTY IN NORTHERN FLORIDA... * UNTIL 945 AM EDT *
 
ForsythSnow said:
Is there something you are seeing that I am not? I am seeing things remain calmer and further south than what the SPC is showing, Maybe a high risk for south Georgia, like Atlanta south, but I don't see up here in North Georgia having a high risk. From what I see, the CAPE fizzles when it reaches Georgia by Wednsday evening, STPs fall, and overall I can maybe see far West Georgia having a higher risk, but I doubt that NE GA will be in a high risk. In fact, we may be downgraded to enhanced if the other models end up falling in line with what the NAM is showing, but if I am wrong anywhere in my statement, please correct me.
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Is Atlanta not considered northern Georgia . I don't speak for Chris but I doubt he was talking about extreme northern Georgia I think he was talking i20 south


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Storm5 said:
Just looked after your post . Wow yeah they are. I have no clue if they are reliable . How reliable were they back in the day ?


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They used to be pretty good. One of them had a high QPF bias. The big deal though is the winds staying backed. I don't know if that was a bias or not, but mesoscale models showing it is very disturbing.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Is there something you are seeing that I am not? I am seeing things remain calmer and further south than what the SPC is showing, Maybe a high risk for south Georgia, like Atlanta south, but I don't see up here in North Georgia having a high risk. From what I see, the CAPE fizzles when it reaches Georgia by Wednsday evening, STPs fall, and overall I can maybe see far West Georgia having a higher risk, but I doubt that NE GA will be in a high risk. In fact, we may be downgraded to enhanced if the other models end up falling in line with what the NAM is showing, but if I am wrong anywhere in my statement, please correct me.
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If I'm just looking at the NAM and from what I see and with soundings for Forysth county around both system that move thru is still moving West to East like a wave high STP value and as it does die down further East it behavior is very wave like as the fronts move thru it carry with it the High STP/Cape values and that will support those storms all thru Central and North Metro regions of Georgia that's just my thought process reviewing the models. NAM 3K is the only one really showing a obvious weaker STP as it sweeps to the east even with that said the afternoon period still puts out a narrow band of 1.5 STP as it sweeps thru north metro... NAM/GFS show that STP remaining high thru the region.

2017040406_NAM_042_34.3,-84.21_severe_ml.png

2017040406_NAM_036_34.24,-84.19_severe_ml.png
 
I will rephrase that.....Anyone along and south I-20 in GA (not only spots around SE) I do think we see a high risk tomorrow.
 
Storm5 said:
Is Atlanta not considered northern Georgia . I don't speak for Chris but I doubt he was talking about extreme northern Georgia I think he was talking i20 south


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Agreed! I just posted that below...thanks bud!
 
2017040412_NAM_030_33.87,-84.97_severe_ml.png


I believe Delta-dog maybe onto something for the 1st wave this is soundings for Dallas, GA mid-day
 
RollTide18 said:
You guys think Montgomery could see a High Risk tomorrow? I believe the last one here was March 1, 2007
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I think it's possible . Just gonna depend on the speed the front . Over the weekend models were sweeping it through very fast. Now they have slowed a little . Anymore slowing of the front would only lead to a greater risk in a wider area


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In my opinion the greatest chance for Storms with the best chance for Tornados in the Southeast will be after the warm front moves North and the roaring Jet takes shape. SE Alabama, Western GA will get the first action followed by Central GA, and then maybe NE Alabama, NW Ga, and points North late afternoon
 
Storm5 said:
The atmosphere on the 12z NAM is loaded like a bomb tomorrow afternoon for Alabama and Georgia
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It's rather unnerving considering the Warned tornado in Paulding yesterday rather it actually touchdown or not missed my area by about 5 miles and my sons daycare by less then a mile
 
3km NAM verbatim is less than gung ho instability-wise for Georgia from Atlanta northward, but its close in those areas too. If early and ongoing convective development doesn't materialize as its forecasting..its game on
 
The way it looks to me, Jasper/Tuscaloosa/Demopolis and points west are looking to be on the periphery of supercell genesis and may well escape mostly unscathed.

Birmingham/Montgomery eastward look to be on the edge of a strengthening line that could pose significant troubles as the day progresses. There are still flies in the ointment though, and I'm not too sure the atmosphere will be quite as explosive as forecast in AL. I'm thinking Georgia is the focus here, with extreme east AL in play.

For reference, storm genesis on 04/27/11 was back in Central Mississippi eastward toward Petal, Hattiesburg, Meridian, and Starkville. I'm not comparing this possible event to 04/27, as I think we'll never see another event like that in our lives.
 
Sglynx1 said:
The way it looks to me, Jasper/Tuscaloosa/Demopolis and points west are looking to be on the periphery of supercell genesis and may well escape mostly unscathed.

Birmingham/Montgomery eastward look to be on the edge of a strengthening line that could pose significant troubles as the day progresses. There are still flies in the ointment though, and I'm not too sure the atmosphere will be quite as explosive as forecast in AL. I'm thinking Georgia is the focus here, with extreme east AL in play.

For reference, storm genesis on 04/27/11 was back in Central Mississippi eastward toward Petal, Hattiesburg, Meridian, and Starkville. I'm not comparing this possible event to 04/27, as I think we'll never see another event like that in our lives.
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Anywhere in Alabama,Georgia and SC should be the focus . there are still many unknowns that can change A LOT for many people. That's why SPC has such a large outlined enhanced area


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NAM really does have quite a few rotating cells on the initial convection along the WF. As was said earlier I wouldn't sleep on that batch producing a few tornadoes. After that any clearing and temps are going to shoot into the upper 70s to mid 80s with dewpoints climbing into the 65-72 range. Yikes
 
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We have lots of guests on this morning we have turned on the live thread so it updates automatically. Members are the only ones that will see this. If your not a member take two seconds and sign up


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SD said:
Turned this thread on live mode for the duration of this event. Let us know if anything happens to get funky or sluggish
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That probably explains why it jumped me back to the beginning of the thread.... seems to be ok now.
 
Not what I wanted to wake up to this morning! Geez, I honestly don't ever recall an outlook like that for Georgia. I'm sure there has been and I didn't see it but man, what an insane map!

Trying to figure when I need to go to our safe place, wife wants to head there late morning and I'm pushing for tonight. I fear if we wait until 10 or 11 to head that way we're going to end up right in the middle of some serious stuff.
 
12Z NAM looks nastier here, showing the initial morning cluster hitting hard here, then a line in the early evening, then the tornadic one later around 9 - 10 P.M. Going to be a long day tomorrow for sure.
 
Hunstville AFD on why this may be a non-starter --- this is for the Hunstvilla CWA, fyi.

Next, are the uncertainties. First issue is the moisture recovery
and related to that, the afternoon mixing that could lower the dew
points, and if the earlier convection will disrupt the wind fields
and therefore, any moisture return. The last point was a big player
last Thursday when convection did not redevelop well in the
afternoon. If the earlier convection lingers in the east and actually
expands farther west than we currently see, the afternoon will not
warm and destabilize very much. This would leave a line of
thunderstorms moving through around 21z in the west which will likely
be strong and not too severe. There is also a pretty significant mid
level dry slot pushing in from the west around 18z which seems to be
well analyzed in soundings. Moisture is really confined to below
800mb which begs the question of how deep the convection will be able
to get. Also, with the strong low level jet, the dew points will
likely mix out a few deg lower than models are predicting as they
always underdo daytime mixing. The models are handling the mixing
out of the cap well but are not showing the lowering of dew points.

I wouldn't be surprised if the significant threat ends up being confined to south and east of Montgomery toward Carrolton and Columbus. That could, quite obviously, change. As of now, there are more questions than answers and everything is on the table. You know the SPC rues days like this.
 
Phillip l said:
Not what I wanted to wake up to this morning! Geez, I honestly don't ever recall an outlook like that for Georgia. I'm sure there has been and I didn't see it but man, what an insane map!

Trying to figure when I need to go to our safe place, wife wants to head there late morning and I'm pushing for tonight. I fear if we wait until 10 or 11 to head that way we're going to end up right in the middle of some serious stuff.
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It occurs more often than you think, in fact, Georgia just went through a high risk this past January which ended up being their most prolific tornado outbreak in state history...
day1otlk_20170122_1630_prt.gif
 
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