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Severe Severe Threat April 5th-7th

ForsythSnow said:
Probably for days 3-8 they keep it once a day. I wouldn't put much stock into days 3-8 anyway on the SPC maps, except for event areas and timing really. Strength of the event should be in better picture by tomorrow evening I feel.
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I don't put much stock in SPC days 1-2 to be happy honest . I was just wondering I thought they updated Day 3 twice a day


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Storm5 said:
I'm no met and severe weather isn't really my thing but I don't agree with that at all. Almost all guidance is showing a fairly volatile atmosphere after the morning storms which by the way will be booking it NE . It's not like the models are showing a slow progression with the morning storms . If that were the case I could see the argument that they might stabilize the atmosphere some. But that's not the case


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agree 100 percent... atmosphere looks vilotale say the least... look for some pretty significant changes by spc as we draw closer
 
18z NAM late Wednesday afternoon
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Phillip l said:
Ok, thank you. I misunderstood. Just trying to see if the threat is going to move into ga on tuesday, I know Wednesday is going to be nuts.
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Yeah man I'm cautiously curious to see what Wednesday is going to bring. North of the city usually ends up being pretty safe, but we will see.
 
00Z NAM is weaker overall for late afternoon, but still shows the threat in Northeast Alabama

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but but but.....they said if we get through today's event, Wed. will be a biggie....lol....get outta here!
 
Difference between NAM at 18z and 00z is 18z is negative tilted and 00z is neutral
 
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Storm5 said:
Cape values are still loaded
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Shear is a damn mess


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What's the big hole over western Carolinas? The wedge?
 
NAM 12km and 3km have some similarities Late Wednesday afternoon. GFS holds serve, let's see if the Euro carries on.
 
GFS looks ominous enough for Georgia Wednesday, if the SRH was higher, there would be huge issues with respect to tornado potential. Bulk shear is more than sufficient for organized severe though
 
I think Wednesday could be even worse than Monday around the SE. Especially I-20 south
 
There looks to be early storms over the western Carolinas , around 10-12 timeframe and the main wave or front coming through after midnight. Looks like that should limit the severity, atleast in these parts
 
Storm5 said:
I'm no met and severe weather isn't really my thing but I don't agree with that at all. Almost all guidance is showing a fairly volatile atmosphere after the morning storms which by the way will be booking it NE . It's not like the models are showing a slow progression with the morning storms . If that were the case I could see the argument that they might stabilize the atmosphere some. But that's not the case


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TN Valley area: They are sticking to their forecast this morning. From Jason Simpson/Ben Smith WHNT:
As of this writing Tuesday morning, we look for one wave of heavy storms in the morning Wednesday. It’s questionable just how far north the “severe” threat gets with those, but it is definitely worth watching from the wee hours of Wednesday morning through rush hour.

A second wave of isolated severe storms in the afternoon and early evening depends on how the morning storms play out. More storms lasting longer in the morning means a lower threat in the afternoon and evening. Less stormy weather early means more potential in the afternoon.

In other words, there is still quite a bit of uncertainty surrounding how it plays out; just be alert, and we will keep you posted!
 
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Not a happy camper:

Issuing Office: Jacksonville
Source: National.Weather.Service
7:46am EDT, Tue Apr 4

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSONVILLE HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... CENTRAL ALACHUA COUNTY IN NORTHERN FLORIDA... SOUTHEASTERN BRADFORD COUNTY IN NORTHERN FLORIDA... * UNTIL 830 AM EDT * AT 746 AM EDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR GAINESVILLE, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. HAZARD... 60 MPH WIND GUSTS. SOURCE... RADAR INDICATED. IMPACT... EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS, SIDING, AND TREES. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... GAINESVILLE, KEYSTONE HEIGHTS, UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA, ORANGE HEIGHTS, GAINESVILLE AIRPORT, SAMPSON, WALDO AND HAMPTON. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A BUILDING. TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM, AND MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS. && TORNADO... POSSIBLE HAIL... <.75IN WIND... 60MPH
 
pcbjr said:
Not a happy camper:

Issuing Office: Jacksonville
Source: National.Weather.Service
7:46am EDT, Tue Apr 4

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSONVILLE HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... CENTRAL ALACHUA COUNTY IN NORTHERN FLORIDA... SOUTHEASTERN BRADFORD COUNTY IN NORTHERN FLORIDA... * UNTIL 830 AM EDT * AT 746 AM EDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR GAINESVILLE, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. HAZARD... 60 MPH WIND GUSTS. SOURCE... RADAR INDICATED. IMPACT... EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS, SIDING, AND TREES. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... GAINESVILLE, KEYSTONE HEIGHTS, UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA, ORANGE HEIGHTS, GAINESVILLE AIRPORT, SAMPSON, WALDO AND HAMPTON. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A BUILDING. TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM, AND MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS. && TORNADO... POSSIBLE HAIL... <.75IN WIND... 60MPH
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Looks like a messy morning in your neck of the woods, stay safe!
Radar estimates of over 4" just to your NW any reports of flooding there this morning... those cells are just training!
 
metwannabe said:
Looks like a messy morning in your neck of the woods, stay safe!
Radar estimates of over 4" just to your NW any reports of flooding there this morning... those cells are just training!
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there's nothing like wearing a suit on this sort of day ... LOL
 
Upgraded now to a flood warning - in the last 5 minutes:

Flood Warning
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
824 AM EDT TUE APR 4 2017

Gilchrist FL-Alachua FL-Bradford FL-Union FL-Columbia FL-
824 AM EDT TUE APR 4 2017

The National Weather Service in Jacksonville has issued a

* Flood Warning for...
Gilchrist County in northern Florida...
Alachua County in northern Florida...
Bradford County in northern Florida...
Southern Union County in northern Florida...
Southwestern Columbia County in northern Florida...

* Until 1130 AM EDT

* At 823 AM EDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing
heavy rain which will cause flooding. Up to two inches of rain have
already fallen.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Gainesville, Starke, Trenton, Lake Butler, Bell, Worthington
Spring, Alachua, High Springs, Fort White and Worthington Springs.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Excessive runoff from heavy rainfall will cause flooding of small
creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses as
well as other drainage areas and low lying spots.
 
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