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Severe Severe Threat April 5th-7th

metwannabe said:
The NAM is interesting in that it has this current blob of rain really weakening and shifting off to the south of us, then rapidly blows convection up around 1 am in Cen NC which could have some rotation followed by more storms with the frontal passage. Still need to watch this one it has potential that's for sure

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little concerned about what may come off the gulf early tomorrow AM as well ... :oops:
 
SD said:
Yep, the 18z NAM doesn't have the dewpoint at RDU going above 60 until 6z so it's going to be a while before we even start to get unstable
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60+ DPs just south. I don't think we're going to have to wait till 6z. Dry Bias NAM?? :)

I checked the obs west south and east of us. Winds appear to be from random directions. NW over here, S over there, NE on this side, etc. So right now, it's hard to get a feel for solid moisture advection, although we have come a long way since 47 at Noon!
 
All that said, usually, things turn out to be quite a bit less dramatic than we think. Still need to watch it, though.
 
Rain Cold said:
60+ DPs just south. I don't think we're going to have to wait till 6z. Dry Bias NAM?? :)

I checked the obs west south and east of us. Winds appear to be from random directions. NW over here, S over there, NE on this side, etc. So right now, it's hard to get a feel for solid moisture advection, although we have come a long way since 47 at Noon!
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Mid 60 DP's in Johnston and Harnett Counties so yeah literally on your door step...
 
I think Atlanta might actually have a chance to grow unstable here now. Looks like a stretch of partly cloudy skies with no little junk storms to interfere.
 
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