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Severe Severe Threat 3/24-3/27

SD

SD

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3km NAM is going bonkers over the deep south Saturday

scp.us_se.png
 
From BMX:

Friday is expected to be warm and dry with high 500 mb heights
over the region as a ridge moves from west to east. A strong
upper-level trough will become a closed low as it moves across the
Plains into Missouri, limiting the risk for severe storms on
Saturday. Storms should be ongoing across MS at daybreak Saturday
with a respectable 40-50 kt low-level jet to our west. Storms
moving eastward from MS should encounter a less favorable
environment with the low-level weakening as the system becomes
vertically stacked. SBCAPE values should range from 400-700 J/kg
and combine with 0-6 km shear of 40-45 kt yielding a low-end
threat for damaging winds mainly west of I-65 on Saturday
afternoon. The severe weather threat should gradually decrease
through the evening, though an area of rain with a few embedded
storms will probably continue overnight ahead of the 500 mb
trough axis.
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Well definitely juicy for parts of SE from West to east as it dies off next 24 hour model NAM runs should be interesting
 
malak05 said:
That's what's to look for any type of shifts in next day or so?
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For parts of Ga and the Carolinas to see severe weather I would personally like to see the upper level energy moving more east toward the region and it not dying out so rapidly
 
Storm5 said:
18z NAM is still showing a robust threat
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18z had a little different look compared to 12z but still delivered to MS/AL. That look would be possible more productive for East AL/West GA too if it was a little faster and before Cape erodes
 
3k NAM is showing to possible lines impacting the western parts of the southeast tomorrow


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Wow 12z 3k run really holds that first line ever stronger into east AL and west GA better then previous runs if that continues wouldn't be surprised if they go to slight outlook
 
Storm5 said:
SPC isn't very impressed as they cut way back
a946f4fafba0c5a4bd56928244d84d51.jpg



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The line is rather unimpressive right now, its thin and doesn't even have that much lightning. HRRR suggests additional storms forming behind the line over MS where there will be higher CAPE values, but given the slow progression of the line, I don't think the atmosphere over AL will have enough time to get sufficiently destabilized to support widespread severe storms.
 
Bama Ravens said:
The line is rather unimpressive right now, its thin and doesn't even have that much lightning. HRRR suggests additional storms forming behind the line over MS where there will be higher CAPE values, but given the slow progression of the line, I don't think the atmosphere over AL will have enough time to get sufficiently destabilized to support widespread severe storms.
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Yeah will be interesting to watch . But like you said , recovery will be an issue


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Large hail is going to be a big problem tomorrow across northern Mississippi , Eastern Arkansas and western Tennessee


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Storm5 said:
Large hail is going to be a big problem tomorrow across northern Mississippi , Eastern Arkansas and western Tennessee


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It will reach well into AL as well. With no linear forcing don't be surprised to see some long track supercells.
 
GFS is flagging some major hail analogs this morning. That cold air aloft will lead to supercells with large to very large hail being the main threat. Tornado threat is still low.

Threat levels :
Hail: high
Wind: medium
Tornado: low

Locations: MS/AL/TN
 
Been looking at new cars! Mine will be outside in the hail if it occurs. Got a new car due to hail damage back in 2009. The garage is filled with my guy's 3 motorcycles and 2 convertibles. No room for the SUV ;)
 
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