AFDBMX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
857 AM CST Tue Feb 7 2017
.UPDATE...
MESOSCALE UPDATE.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
The first line of thunderstorms has moved into west Alabama this
morning. The activity has plenty of lightning, but the air mass is
still fairly stable with surface based lifted indices just below
zero across far west Alabama. These storms could produce some
small hail for the next few hours due to higher mid level lapse
rates in this area. Outside the convective line over west
Alabama, the activity has been mostly showers, due to strong
capping inversion from 12z BMX sounding. As expected, the early
morning clouds ad rain will help stabilize the air mass for this
afternoon. For this afternoon, the most unstable air will remain
well west of the current rain activity, closer to the Mississippi
river. However, the air mass across east Alabama will have a
chance to destabilize, due to greater heating and less contamination
from current rain activity. For now, a low confidence severe
threat will be maintained for all of central Alabama.
58/rose
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF Discussion.
The earlier lower VIS across the area has started to clear out as
some light rain showers are pushing in from the west and winds are
increasing slightly. MVFR CIGs should continue to be prevailing as
rain shower continue to move into the area today and tonight. TSRA
possible in the afternoon hours as the main storm system moves
west to east across the area between 1700z and 0100z. Periods of
lower VIS possible during heavier rain showers, but exact timing
and locations of those are too uncertain to add into the TAFs for
any specific terminal. Winds generally from the south at 8-10kts
with gusts possible near storms.
25/Owen