pretty impressive ML lapse rates over La
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Severe Severe Threat 2/6-8
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Really wouldn't rule out a few tornado reports today
Bama Ravens
Member
BMX doesn't seem too concerned for their CWA today. They seem to think most storms in their CWA will be elevated. Best severe threat over their southwestern counties.
AFDBMX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
857 AM CST Tue Feb 7 2017
.UPDATE...
MESOSCALE UPDATE.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
The first line of thunderstorms has moved into west Alabama this
morning. The activity has plenty of lightning, but the air mass is
still fairly stable with surface based lifted indices just below
zero across far west Alabama. These storms could produce some
small hail for the next few hours due to higher mid level lapse
rates in this area. Outside the convective line over west
Alabama, the activity has been mostly showers, due to strong
capping inversion from 12z BMX sounding. As expected, the early
morning clouds ad rain will help stabilize the air mass for this
afternoon. For this afternoon, the most unstable air will remain
well west of the current rain activity, closer to the Mississippi
river. However, the air mass across east Alabama will have a
chance to destabilize, due to greater heating and less contamination
from current rain activity. For now, a low confidence severe
threat will be maintained for all of central Alabama.
58/rose
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF Discussion.
The earlier lower VIS across the area has started to clear out as
some light rain showers are pushing in from the west and winds are
increasing slightly. MVFR CIGs should continue to be prevailing as
rain shower continue to move into the area today and tonight. TSRA
possible in the afternoon hours as the main storm system moves
west to east across the area between 1700z and 0100z. Periods of
lower VIS possible during heavier rain showers, but exact timing
and locations of those are too uncertain to add into the TAFs for
any specific terminal. Winds generally from the south at 8-10kts
with gusts possible near storms.
25/Owen
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
857 AM CST Tue Feb 7 2017
.UPDATE...
MESOSCALE UPDATE.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
The first line of thunderstorms has moved into west Alabama this
morning. The activity has plenty of lightning, but the air mass is
still fairly stable with surface based lifted indices just below
zero across far west Alabama. These storms could produce some
small hail for the next few hours due to higher mid level lapse
rates in this area. Outside the convective line over west
Alabama, the activity has been mostly showers, due to strong
capping inversion from 12z BMX sounding. As expected, the early
morning clouds ad rain will help stabilize the air mass for this
afternoon. For this afternoon, the most unstable air will remain
well west of the current rain activity, closer to the Mississippi
river. However, the air mass across east Alabama will have a
chance to destabilize, due to greater heating and less contamination
from current rain activity. For now, a low confidence severe
threat will be maintained for all of central Alabama.
58/rose
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF Discussion.
The earlier lower VIS across the area has started to clear out as
some light rain showers are pushing in from the west and winds are
increasing slightly. MVFR CIGs should continue to be prevailing as
rain shower continue to move into the area today and tonight. TSRA
possible in the afternoon hours as the main storm system moves
west to east across the area between 1700z and 0100z. Periods of
lower VIS possible during heavier rain showers, but exact timing
and locations of those are too uncertain to add into the TAFs for
any specific terminal. Winds generally from the south at 8-10kts
with gusts possible near storms.
25/Owen
multiple tornado warnings back in eastern Louisiana
Getting a little bit of SB cape in the FL pandhandle and south central Al....might be an interesting afternoon in these areas
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pcbjr
Member
Bama Ravens
Member
Impressive debris signature on this storm near Madisonville, LA. Confirmed to be producing a large tornado.
KBMX just removed all of central alabama from the severe risk. Says risk will be closer to the coast
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Impressive debris signature on this storm near Madisonville, LA. Confirmed to be producing a large tornado.
Sounds like a long track tornado on the ground in a pretty populated area from watching the coverage from WDSU.
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Bama Ravens
Member
Storm NE of NOLA also has a debris signature.
Doesn't look quite as impressive right now but given the overall structure it might just be cycling back
Crazy how these storms have basically been going across the same areas. I wonder if that storm to the west of Nola might make a run at the northern parts of the city. Looks like it will end up too far north though
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Flurry
Member
Heard tornado hit New Orleans with widespread damage...Anybody else heard that???
Edit: Not trying to start any rumors, but very curious
Edit: Not trying to start any rumors, but very curious
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