Storm west of Pachuta, MS is trying but really being hampered by the weak low level laspe rates.
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Severe Severe Threat 2/16-19
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Yikes
thanksgivingbrown
Member
Things are starting to pick up. Cc drop on that storm sw of Corinth and that storm near selmer TN is strengthening
SASQUATCH
2-Time Defending SouthernWX Fantasy Football Champ
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Watch this little booger. Starting to get that tail.
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Unless something rapidly changes, the best chance for a tornado in AL is definitely gonna be north of Cullman.
Think this area has SPC’s attention
HugeSnowStick
Member
Really, a bunch of nothing.
This ramped up quickly near the AL/MS border
Bama Ravens
Member
Storm mode is messy across MS and AL for the most part.
Bama Ravens
Member
Tornado near Smithville, MS a short while ago.
I think the rain out ahead of the main line stabilized things in Birmingham.
Bama Ravens
Member
Yeah, also seems like lapse rates never got to where models suggested.
Temperature dropped to 65 when the rain started.
lusting4Adusting
Member
Did the MCS in bham area rob some moisture return to the northern part of AL?
CAMs were pointing to issues with low level lapse rates last night. Two of the big issues with strongly positive tilt troughs are you can end up with too little forcing and the strong SW flow will advect warm air into the mid-levels.
SASQUATCH
2-Time Defending SouthernWX Fantasy Football Champ
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As of now for Central AL, looks like warm air got into the mid levels and impeded lapse rates. Another few hours to watch and see. Hopefully it will behave.
JLL1973
Member
This is not my pic but this was right on top of my workplace today. The rotation was something too see
Big time rule of thumb for future events, even without other factors considered when low level lapse rates are around 5.5C during peak heating and 0-3km cape is around 30, there is good chance of a very marginal event in the southeast.
PARSONBROWN
Member
big rule of thumb...when school is cancelled day before, very marginal event