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Severe Severe Threat 2/16-19

...Wednesday/Thursday (days 6-7)...
Medium-range models exhibit notable spread in the evolution of a
subsequent upstream mid-level trough forecast to move into the
central states and eventually Great Lakes. However, more
consistency/agreement is becoming evident in the ECMWF/Canadian
operational runs and the ECMWF ensemble mean/GEFS ensemble, with the
operational GFS the outlier. Factors seemingly warranting an
introduction of 15% severe probabilities include the strength of the
model-forecast storm system, and ample time for appreciable
modification of the airmass over the Gulf and Gulf Coast states.

It's never a good sign to have a threat be identified this far. Out especially the ones I have seen over this highlight area. They usually end up being pretty robust
Fred Gossage gives a pretty serious early alert on this one on his Youtube Channel... it's definitely on the proverbial "radar" already.
Latest SPC outlooks. Outlook for Thursday has been expanded northward significantly due to confidence in a deep rich airmass supportive of severe storms being present. We have a very potent long wave trough ejecting into a very rich warm sector. As others have noted when folks start this low rumbling this far out they know something is up. I expect a steady uptick in messaging in the days to come.

"The focus for severe is overwhelmingly concentrated on Wednesday
through Thursday across parts of the southern Great Plains eastward
into the MS/OH/TN Valleys. Model guidance continues to show a very
powerful upper-level system ejecting into the southern Great Plains
on Tuesday from the Desert Southwest. Additional modification of
the airmass across the northwest Gulf Coast will aid in
severe-thunderstorm potential. Surface dewpoints will probably
reach the lower-mid 60s in the Arklatex on Wednesday into Wednesday
night. Model variability and greater confidence and a farther-west
edge of low-level moisture/surface low placement in the southern
Great Plains necessitated a shift of the severe probabilities west
on Wednesday (day 5). Once model spread is reduced, a 30-percent
severe area will likely be introduced. A continuation of
thunderstorm activity will likely occur into Thursday as the warm
sector potentially develops as far north as the OH Valley. Have
expanded the severe risk as there is now greater confidence in the
forecast surface-low track on Thursday being across parts of the
Midwest. Model spread increases by late in the extended period
before severe potential likely becomes very low next weekend."day5prob (2).gifday6prob (1).gif
Planning to chase on Thursday. Liking the area from Tuscaloosa to Birmingham the best for right now.
Latest CIPS analogs... Long range MMFS runs will start for Thursday later today.


<----- Area I like best
Once again the risk area has been pulled northward. Again this shows that the further south you go the more confidence there is that there will be an ample warm sector. Cape won't be an issue this time around doesn't look the dynamics will be an issue either.
day4prob (1).gifday5prob (3).gif
They guy from convective chronicals on YouTube, (I have posted some of his post event analysis on here. Dude knows his stuff) Seems to be pretty alarmed by this one. He should be posting a pre analysis video in the coming days, but has already been saying this has the parameter space to be an upper echelon type event.