Jessy89
Member
Someone with knowledge. This is a sounding of upstate sc. what would this sounding mean?
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Severe Severe potential April 13th-15th Palm Sunday Weekend
- Thread starter Darklordsuperstorm
- Start date
Someone with knowledge. This is a sounding of upstate sc. what would this sounding mean?
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Z
Zander98al
Guest
with systems coming through at night sometimes. Just with high dewpoints and temps and a strong low level jet speeding up when this wave comes through i usually dont think models grasp the instability well. Nws bham talked about it too.
Local mets (JC) saying models are backing off the severe for W Carolinas Sunday. KK showed future radar, not even any yellow in our area! Dodged a bullet?
In house model, possible solution, but I’d go with more severe with such a strong LLvL jet, for example NAM 3km
Good ole glen guess he didnt see the latest 0z name runs it wasnt exactly reflecting a true robbing situation
Jessy89
Member
I tell ya seems like local meteorologist treat severe weather like snow. And under plays it
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After reviewing 0z guidance, I am still in disagreement with the SPC, namely for the Carolinas. I only agree with the areas out west approaching Louisiana. I am actually shocked at the enhanced risk for places like Boone NC. There is going to be some severe weather but I do not see it how they see it playing out!
This setup and southerly flow does not support long track tornadoes near GSP going into the NC foothills. I see some potential for damaging winds if storms take advantage of peak heating and do not weaken over the mountains. A slight tornado risk within 3 counties of Greensboro NC would be more favorable in this particular setup.
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Zander98al
Guest
02z HRRR STP is unreal.
No where close to 4/27.
Snowflowxxl
Member
4/27 makes this event look like a light shower. That was once a generation type event
ForsythSnow
Moderator
I looked back on that date in 2017 and it looked like a localized outbreak not a multistate one.
Edit: I am seeing 2014 and that makes more sense.
Snowflowxxl
Member
Yea around 4/28 I believe
got a PDS out of triangle area
Just a note, some of these PDS soundings and STP numbers are driven by the insane shear such as the one above with 77knts of 0-6km bulk shear. The sounding above could be dangerous with the right conditions, but its not a true PDS sounding to me.
Showmeyourtds
Member
Maybe I missed it but I still don’t see how this could be bad for NGA (ie I-20 & points north)
Snowflowxxl
Member
huh?
GeorgiaGirl
Member
At this point there's really only 1 thing that could possibly save Georgia from a mess (not as big of one as Louisiana however), and it's convection robbing moisture.
And while it's possible you get that, can't count on it happening.
And while it's possible you get that, can't count on it happening.
What do you mean?
The WRFs are interesting, both ARW and NSSL WRF show little in the way for LA, with most of the UH streaks up on the warm front in AR besides one big supercell with the first round of storms. Then looks like embedded supercells in the QLCS or broken line creates a bunch of spin ups for AL and MS.
The NMMB WRF looks like the 0-3km NAM and poos out everything. Although that WRF is normally negative Nancy about everything.
The NMMB WRF looks like the 0-3km NAM and poos out everything. Although that WRF is normally negative Nancy about everything.