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Tropical Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten

Thank goodness for the outflow from Harvey helping to make the shear as high as it still is along the SE coast. Otherwise, I may have been already staring down the barrel of a strong TC nearby right now!
 
GaWx said:
Thank goodness for the outflow from Harvey helping to make the shear as high as it still is along the SE coast. Otherwise, I may have been already staring down the barrel of a strong TC nearby right now!
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Totally unscientific (since I can't find anything really akin) --
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/flash-wv.html
But the direction of this little bugger is not, IMHO, a given yet ...

If I were in Brunswick, I'd be looking closely ... (but then, what do I know?) ... :confused:
 
Webberweather53 said:
The GEFS mean keeps shifting the heavier precip further NW across the NC & VA piedmont in spite of the recent eastward shift of the GFS op...
View attachment 950
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Is it somehow being pulled back toward the coast/influenced by the mess in the Great Lakes
 
GaWx said:
Thank goodness for the outflow from Harvey helping to make the shear as high as it still is along the SE coast. Otherwise, I may have been already staring down the barrel of a strong TC nearby right now!
Click to expand...

Yeah the low level thermal gradient from an adjacent cold front bisecting PTC 10 is largely responsible for its recent development and maintenance in the face of 60+ knots of shear. This system is almost assuredly not fully tropical atm...
 
I don't think this gets strong anytime soon, but I could see this backing on, or even just inland with the system...
hopefully it can sling some rain into the SE...That would be nice.
 
A perfect summer evening for a walk here thanks to the solid NE winds and slightly lower dewpoints though there was a brief light shower a few minutes ago.

Note that SLPs, even at Mayport, have risen the last hour most places other than St Aug. But keep in mind that this is when a climo diurnal max is approaching.

Mayport (near Jax, FL) gusted to 41 mph last hour.
 
Partly if not mostly banter, but ...

Thing has a facial attitude (LOL)

Screen_Shot_2017-08-27_at_9.28.54_PM.png


and it appears to be spinning a tad further south than some might think ...
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-74.21,21.02,1907

Screen_Shot_2017-08-27_at_9.29.16_PM.png
 
Central NC will also be in the right entrance region of an 70-80 kt jet streak over Pennsylvania which help augment the lifting that will be induced by PTC 10...
gfs-ens_uv250_us_8.png

From a synoptic standpoint, with the isentropic upglide, positively tilted trough over the OH valley reinforcing the left of track precipitation distribution, and aforementioned jet dynamics this looks like a setup that favors a considerable amount of rain over east-central NC...
 
Webberweather53 said:
From a synoptic standpoint, with the isentropic upglide, positively tilted trough over the OH valley reinforcing the left of track precipitation distribution, and aforementioned jet dynamics this looks like a setup that favors a considerable amount of rain over east-central NC...
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Too bad, Shetley ... :confused:
 
pcbjr said:
Too bad, Shetley ... :confused:
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Yeah it's strange how the operational GFS & Euro are still very unenthused about the rainfall potential over central NC given the pattern, certainly can't recall too many times where there's been this much of a discrepancy between the operational models and their ensemble suites for this long esp the Euro...
 
Webberweather53 said:
The GEFS mean keeps shifting the heavier precip further NW across the NC & VA piedmont in spite of the recent eastward shift of the GFS op...
View attachment 950
Click to expand...

Okay so again tropics isn't my forte at all but curious. What is the likely hood of Harvey and the TD pulling together? Is that even possible giving the TD is being pulled left with the disturbance in the lakes?


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MBell said:
Okay so again tropics isn't my forte at all but curious. What is the likely hood of Harvey and the TD pulling together? Is that even possible giving the TD is being pulled left with the disturbance in the lakes?


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Not at this juncture, these 2 systems are too far apart for binary interaction (need to be within ~450 miles) & even so, PTC 10 isn't exactly a tropical cyclone so the same rules wrt fujiwhara interaction don't apply because of it's shallower warm core.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Not at this juncture, these 2 systems are too far apart for binary interaction (need to be within ~450 miles) & even so, PTC 10 isn't exactly a tropical cyclone so the same rules wrt fujiwhara interaction don't apply because of it's shallower warm core.
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Thanks! Great explanation!


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Nam probably isn't going to be as wet as the 18z run but it's still setting up a decent rain event

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Srefs really jumped in at 21z with a mean of 3 inches at RDU

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The NAM doesnt look much drier at all this run, already closing in on 8" here with more to come... While it's the NAM, again the large-scale pattern supports heavy rainfall in central NC monday night into Tuesday...
 
It appears based on the last couple of hours that there may be a bit of a low center forming near St Augustine, where winds are quite light and SLP lowest. (I'm treating The Villages' lower pressure as bogus.)

Now that we've reached the time of a climo diurnal max, we may see hourly SLPs start to fall again shortly.
 
GaWx said:
It appears based on the last couple of hours that there may be a bit of a low center forming near St Augustine, where winds are quite light and SLP lowest. (I'm treating The Villages' lower pressure as bogus.)

Now that we've reached the time of a climo diurnal max, we may see hourly SLPs start to fall again shortly.
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Certainly appears that way on radar, just can make out possible slp just off St. Augustine

574b35cfe2ad9b3b720b84f006ad76e1.gif


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You know, I just took a quick look at the GEFS from 18z and more are inland with the track than the 12z I think.. hm. seems like a TS is a sure thing with current intensity models.
 
While the 12z Euro had 0 precip in my yard, or county as a whole. the EPS decides to turn my county into a rainbow from the potential system:

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2017082712_90_4069_220_m.png
 
Shawn said:
While the 12z Euro had 0 precip in my yard, or county as a whole. the EPS decides to turn my county into a rainbow from the potential system:

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2017082712_90_4069_220_m.png
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From looking at this Shawn that will completely be a BUST!! 6 to 7 inches is unlikely because one the speed of the system, and two the Shear?? I actually think 3k Nam may be the best with the rainfall for this event or the HRRR.
 
GFS is probably not expanding the precipitation shield far enough to the NW as usual & in comparison to its ensemble suite but you get the idea, several inches of torrential rain and gusty winds possible as PTC 10 passes by NC.

gfs_apcpn_seus_8.png
 
hrrr_ref_frzn_seus_15.png

The last 3 runs of the HRRR which does very good in Short Range is suggesting keeping more of the moisture off coast of South Carolina then what was previously shown!!
 
Meteorologist1999 said:
From looking at this Shawn that will completely be a BUST!! 6 to 7 inches is unlikely because one the speed of the system, and two the Shear?? I actually think 3k Nam may be the best with the rainfall for this event or the HRRR.
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I think looking at it versus what eric posted, the whole map is broken. lol
 
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