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Tropical Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten

SD said:
You can see on that loop it's trying to wrap up toward the end.

Looks line recon is still scheduled for today?

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Yes and like I just said in response to FS - it is very tropical here today ... o_O
 
Certainly looks like something isn't too far off.
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Here's the description of the Recon schedule

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1215 PM EDT SAT 26 AUGUST 2017
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 27/1100Z TO 28/1100Z AUGUST 2017
TCPOD NUMBER.....17-087

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (NEAR SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71 FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 72
A. 27/1800Z A. 28/1130Z,1730Z
B AFXXX 01DDA INVEST B. AFXXX 0210A CYCLONE
C. 27/1630Z C. 28/0930Z
D. 31.0N 81.0W D. 32.0N 80.5W
E. 27/1730Z TO 27/2230Z E. 28/1100Z TO 28/1730Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES IF SYSTEM
DEVELOPS.
3. REMARK: ALL REMAINING TASKED REQUIREMENTS FOR HURRICANE HARVEY
CANCELED BY NHC AT 26/0310Z.
 
Webberweather53 said:
The storm may become more heavily weighted on its northwestern side as it becomes increasingly baroclinic (w/ vortex tending to tilt northwestward w/ height towards lower heights/cooler air) as interacts with a s/w over the Ohio Valley & there's a strong cold air damming wedge in place across much of the state that will provide a focus for isentropic lift to the north & northwest of the storm and as we all know, NWP often mishandles (under represents) precipitation in this kind of setup...
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Agreed to me it looks like a decent left of track heavy rain setup. I have a hard time buying all the precip being pinned to the coast with a deep southerly flow on the east side of the system that gets wrapped into our area.

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SD said:
Then the 12z happened what's 6 inches difference
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That's what she said! :)
I hope you get some rain! I've given up hope on Harvey rains, and these offshore the coast storms or even a few miles inland, NEVER produce rain back here
 
Dang this is getting interesting, agreed looking very much a left of center track rain setup

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Webberweather53 said:
The storm may become more heavily weighted on its northwestern side as it becomes increasingly baroclinic (w/ vortex tending to tilt northwestward w/ height towards lower heights/cooler air) as interacts with a s/w over the Ohio Valley & there's a strong cold air damming wedge in place across much of the state that will provide a focus for isentropic lift to the north & northwest of the storm and as we all know, NWP often mishandles (under represents) precipitation in this kind of setup...
View attachment 929
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Webber, please be right! If this forms of GA coast and develops fairly quickly, my back yard, would be in a SE fetch, and that could get us some ok rains up here! When they are due East of me off the NC coast, we only get subsidence! I have a glimmer of hope! It's kind of like a winter storm around here, you've lost all hope, then you see an HRRR run that gives you a deathband, and it's game back on! :)
 
Gonna be some local mets in the Carolinasscrambling to explain all the rain a lot of people could possibly get! All the focus has been on Harvey, and I've got a 10% chance of rain through Thursday, as of now! Any rain for me would be a complete surprise ! This is like Summer edition of Bricks Carolina Crusher! :)
 
The Euro remains unimpressed. No real development until it gets just east of ILM then toward the OBX.
 
Pinned the thread and turned live thread on, not sure we will be seeing posts as rapidly as we did in the Harvey thread but there are a lot of posters here from the Carolinas and Ga
 
SD said:
Pinned the thread and turned live thread on, not sure we will be seeing posts as rapidly as we did in the Harvey thread but there are a lot of posters here from the Carolinas and Ga
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... and one curmudgeon from points south ... :rolleyes:
 
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EPS still doesn't agree with the op and shows an even more expansive precip shield than the last run w/ legitimate precip back to the foothills...
eps_qpf_m_se_13.png
 
Yeah there's a lot of mid level rotation on the CHS radar, the northern semi circle of 92L's circulation is very robust and IMO it looks well defined enough to designate as a tropical depression or at the very least a potential tropical cyclone which we may see at 5pm.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Yeah there's a lot of mid level rotation on the CHS radar, the northern semi circle of 92L's circulation is very robust and IMO it looks well defined enough to designate as a tropical depression or at the very least a potential tropical cyclone which we may see at 5pm.
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Considering how close this is to land and the quickly changing potential, I would not be surprised to see a PTC designation today....
 
Yeah, so the 18z NAM is doing somehting a bit wonky with this system.
 
It has been quite a windy day here (windiest in a long time outside of thunderstorms) with them, if anything, recently picking up a little. Conditions are similar to a nearby TD or a nor'easter with sustained in the 20s and gusts into the 30s. A lot of this appears due to the solid wedging high producing a pretty strong pressure gradient not far from weak low pressure associated with 92L near N FL. Though here there is still a tropical airmass with dewpoints in the lower 70s, there's drier air not far away in inland GA/SC and even over the coast of SC northeast of CHS as well as over all of NC, where many dewpoints are down into the rather pleasant 55-60 range. As long as that dry air can get involved in this, I'd think that any development would be primarily subtropical rather than tropical. So, if this develops near the coast , I'd favor it being ST. However, if this were to develop far enough offshore in the tropical airmass, it would seemingly have a better shot at tropical as it moves to the NE. I'm not worried about anything all that strong impacting the GA and lower SC coast regardless of what happens though I'll watch to make sure.
 
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