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Tropical Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten

metwannabe said:
Nobody is suggesting another Andrew that was certainly not my intent as I mentioned "doesn't mean a thing but interesting", however the area around the Bahama's is notorious for TC RI so while I have my doubts 92L survives, IF it does, it will need be watched closely
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I wasn't trying to suggest anything, I was just stating observations from that picture compared to what's happening now. Hopefully someone doesn't interpret that picture as "here comes Andrew again" on social media. :confused:

Meanwhile, 92L does seem to be still rotating, just not too well.
 
ForsythSnow said:
I wasn't trying to suggest anything, I was just stating observations from that picture compared to what's happening now. Hopefully someone doesn't interpret that picture as "here comes Andrew again" on social media. :confused:

Meanwhile, 92L does seem to be still rotating, just not too well.
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Yeah I only shared it here, wouldn't dare post it on any social media site.... but as you can see he (Bryan) posted it on twitter. I'm with you hope people don't go nuts with it
 
Looks like its just about past being beat up by the ULL. Just has the dry air in front.
GANIMMI558Q30.jpg
 
Regardless of what it may or may not do down the road. It clearly has had a counterclockwise circulation for a good while though whether or not that gets down to the surface is uncertain.
 
I can't believe this thing is still listed as only an invest. It needs to be investigated by aircraft.
 
It's a tenacious little booger and it's just about passed one hurdle, the ull, next dry air...

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GFS is showing some weak development this run in the NW Bahamas where it stalls, meanders around, then looks to head OTS or up the coast(has a very large sprawling circulation)

CMC/UKMET are kind of similar just a much stronger storm
 
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GaWx said:
^ It isn't clear to me what that 18Z GFS low originates from as it may not be purely from 92L.
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Yeah, looks as if it originates from the north then drifts south. Doesn't really look like 92L
 
NHC losing interest


Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of disturbed
weather located about 500 miles east-northeast of the northern
Leeward Islands have become less organized since yesterday due to
strong upper-level winds, and satellite data suggest that the
surface circulation has become less defined. Environmental
conditions are expected to be only marginally conducive for
development during the next couple of days while this system moves
west-northwestward at about 20 mph, and the chances for tropical
cyclone formation appear to be decreasing.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
 
Arcc said:
Yuck, definitely much more of wave than the past few days. Will the garbage seasons ever end?
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nope, I'm convinced its the new Atlantic

We'll tell our grandkids about the times of major hurricanes hitting the US ;) 12 years in October...
 
CMC ain't giving up... major hit in NC/VA this run... 2 hurricanes strike the US within 36 hours of each other...

goes up Cheaspeake Bay and close to Washington DC

CMC certainly has had some doomy runs with this
 
It has convective burst but otherwise it looks ragged this morning... another ull and dry air

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NHC has raised its odds of genesis to 30% the next 5 days, while wind shear remains low (5-10 KTS), sea surface temperatures are sufficient, and 92L continues to produce somewhat regular moderate-deep pulse convection, the main hinderance to genesis will be its merger with an upper level low that dove southward into the Bahamas the past day or two. 92L's coupling with this feature will make development difficult-very difficult at least for the next 3 days or so because 92L will now have to spend time and energy eroding the mid-upper level cold core of this ULL and contend with the dry/sinking air accompanying it with relative humidities around 30-40%... Development, if any will be slow to occur and doesn't appear likely until it merges with the tail end of a frontal boundary that will stall off the southeastern US coast late this week. Thereafter the steering flow yet again looks like it could direct this right out to sea as transients will keep diving into the eastern and central US, underneath a persistent high latitude blocking ridge over northern North America... Doesn't seem all too dissimilar from Gert.
 
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Webberweather53 said:
NHC has raised its odds of genesis to 30% the next 5 days, while wind shear remains low (5-10 KTS), sea surface temperatures are sufficient, and 92L continues to produce somewhat regular moderate-deep pulse convection, the main hinderance to genesis will be its merger with an upper level low that dove southward into the Bahamas the past day or two. 92L's coupling with this feature will make development difficult-very difficult at least for the next 3 days or so because 92L will now have to spend time and energy eroding the mid-upper level cold core of this ULL and contend with the dry/sinking air accompanying it with relative humidities around 30-40%... Development, if any will be slow to occur and doesn't appear likely until it merges with the tail end of a frontal boundary that will stall off the southeastern US coast late this week. Thereafter the steering flow yet again looks like it could direct this right out to sea as transients will keep diving into the eastern and central US, underneath a persistent high latitude blocking ridge over northern North America... Doesn't seem all too dissimilar from Gert.
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Looking at the Euro, it develops a weak system once it is pushed out while the CMC seems a bit fast and develops it stronger, but the same path as the Euro.
 
Webberweather53 said:
NHC has raised its odds of genesis to 30% the next 5 days, while wind shear remains low (5-10 KTS), sea surface temperatures are sufficient, and 92L continues to produce somewhat regular moderate-deep pulse convection, the main hinderance to genesis will be its merger with an upper level low that dove southward into the Bahamas the past day or two. 92L's coupling with this feature will make development difficult-very difficult at least for the next 3 days or so because 92L will now have to spend time and energy eroding the mid-upper level cold core of this ULL and contend with the dry/sinking air accompanying it with relative humidities around 30-40%... Development, if any will be slow to occur and doesn't appear likely until it merges with the tail end of a frontal boundary that will stall off the southeastern US coast late this week. Thereafter the steering flow yet again looks like it could direct this right out to sea as transients will keep diving into the eastern and central US, underneath a persistent high latitude blocking ridge over northern North America... Doesn't seem all too dissimilar from Gert.
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Agreed. The euro says any second system is the one to watch

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Wait for Labor Day weekend ... it is (seemingly) inevitable that some major SEC or ACC game will get cancelled ... :confused:
 
pcbjr said:
Wait for Labor Day weekend ... it is (seemingly) inevitable that some major SEC or ACC game will get cancelled ... :confused:
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It's always either Florida and/or LSU as well. A couple of years ago one game got cancelled because it kept lightning.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Well we had an acc game during hurricane Matthew last year at ncsu so glwt
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Yes and we cancelled LSU at home and know what - we still went to Atlanta - now we get LSU at home for 2 years ... the absolutely only positive thing that came from Matthew ... :eek:
 
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Not sure if this will be the frankenstein of 92l or what but the potential low forming off of the SE coast this weekend is becoming more interesting with the potential for a trough to dig into the central US and allow a more west track. I am actually intrigued that this can at least bring some rain into the carolinas if it can start interacting with a trough similar to the cmc/euro

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There is some EPS support for he idea that you mentioned of a low running closer to the coast
ce390eda7448697e18d1430ef29601cf.png



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SD said:
Not sure if this will be the frankenstein of 92l or what but the potential low forming off of the SE coast this weekend is becoming more interesting with the potential for a trough to dig into the central US and allow a more west track. I am actually intrigued that this can at least bring some rain into the carolinas if it can start interacting with a trough similar to the cmc/euro

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Keyword for me: Subsidence !
:(
 
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