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Tropical Potential Eastern MDR Tropical Cyclogenesis (Again?!)

I'm suspecting that the projected MJO is a factor causing the GEFS to be on its own. The MJO forecasts are unusually far different for the next few days with the GEFS staying around where it is inside the circle near phase 2 followed by an unusual clockwise rotation backwards into phase 1 whereas the usually more reliable EPS has it rotating counterclockwise into phase 3 followed by phase 4 pretty quickly. Usually the EPS verifies more closely fwiw. With the GEFS clockwise rotation being unusual vs climo and with it usually not doing well when far different from the EPS, I certainly wouldn't bet on its MJO forecast right now. It will be interesting to see which model comes closer. These model differences make following TCs more interesting to me.
Interesting to me is the NHC now given this some attention (although 20% over next 5 days nothing huge) but former TD4 which the Euro is redeveloping and the GFS isn't and honestly looks more impressive at the moment has nothing from NHC. Real curious to see if they give any intermediate updates or change anything at the regular 2 pm update...
 
Interesting to me is the NHC now given this some attention (although 20% over next 5 days nothing huge) but former TD4 which the Euro is redeveloping and the GFS isn't and honestly looks more impressive at the moment has nothing from NHC. Real curious to see if they give any intermediate updates or change anything at the regular 2 pm update...

100 percent they give an update today on former td4


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Silly question, but since it came to mind ...

Could the projected cooler than normal FL temps be associated with some yet-to-be-named storm? ... LOL ... :confused:

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Every run of the GFS I am just expecting it to slowly back off this storm. So far 12z appears to be stronger than 06z, so I personally think this should avoid Mexico this run. GOM or East coast is my guess this go around.. EDIT: now they're about the same
 
Every run of the GFS I am just expecting it to slowly back off this storm. So far 12z appears to be stronger than 06z, so I personally think this should avoid Mexico this run. GOM or East coast is my guess this go around.. EDIT: now they're about the same
Looks to be a tick stronger and headed towards the shredder again this run.... one thing for sure GFS is not wavering yet
edit: actually on the eastern side of Hispaniola and crossing, more north looks like...
 
This is closer to the 0z run from last night, not quite as strong but stronger and more north than 06z...

Yeah but the ridge is a little west and isn't as strong this run as you pointed out . All with huge ramifications


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I see a hype run coming, through the straits of Florida into the open GOM.... let's see what the "on an Island all by itself" GFS has to say

edit: scratch that Lol... this is going north

lol it's gonna be hyped regardless of where it goes


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Massive opening this run could take a hard NE turn in a few


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