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Tropical Potential Eastern MDR Tropical Cyclogenesis (Again?!)

This is what stalling does, makes feet of rain fall.
qpf_acc.us_se.png
 
I had read somewhere that the OP GFS was broken since upgrade with Tropical weather. Not sure, but it seems like an extreme solution without other model support.
 
Shawn said:
I had read somewhere that the OP GFS was broken since upgrade with Tropical weather. Not sure, but it seems like an extreme solution without other model support.
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It very well could be, but after Cindy, it made it seem like the GFS wasn't. I think that since it is alone on an island, it will lose out this time, but for this season, anything could happen.
 
This 18z run is gonna be the beginning of the GFS folding to every other model. Already significantly weaker. Literally a repeat of last week when it did this with TD4.
 
Keep in mind that the GFS has kind of been on its own with that strange backing up (moving clockwise on the diagram) MJO forecast.
 
Little strengthening hr 108 lets see if gfs want to keep on going
 
Still something to watch, the low barley survives this run but its still there and for that cant completely ignore the gfs
 
GaWx said:
With no hurricane, note how much warmer the 18Z GFS is for next week in the SE US with strong ridging!
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Yep, 100s and high 90s for a lot of the Southeast. It would be hilarious if the upgrade tomorrow on the Euro ended up showing a storm like the GFS did. Doubt it will, but it would give everyone a good laugh. :confused:
gfs_T2m_seus_45.png
 
Storm5 said:
Only a half point???

Watch the new upgraded euro show at storm at 12z lol


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The way I am scoring is : 1 point for a storm, half a point for a short range win, spotting a storm that forms in the long range, or leading the other models away from a fantasy storm like the Euro just did. This isn't football lol :p.
 
Just had flashbacks to groundhogzilla...... Lol. Some of you remember what I speak of
 
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